NFL Pre-Draft Breakdowns: Western Divisions + Mini-Monday Minute - 4/26/21
Lots to get to today. An abbreviated Monday Minute for your NFL news fix plus the AFC + NFC West Draft Breakdowns. I won't keep you too long here, but I did want to remind everyone that Wednesday will be my Final Mock Draft and I will also be including my Final Big Board in that article. I really hope you check that out. If you only read one article of mine, I would hope for it to be that one.
If you missed any of the previous Pre-Draft Breakdown articles, you can find those here.
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Monday Minute
Just a quick recap of the news that has come across in the last two weeks. There were actually quite a few meaningful signings and tidbits, so let's get to it.
The biggest news of the past week was when the Baltimore Ravens traded RT Orlando Brown Jr to the Kansas City Chiefs. This move was expected to happen after Brown's trade request a few months ago. It apparently came together with KC because they didn't believe a starting quality tackle would be available at 31. They traded 31, their 3rd and 4th rounders plus a 2022 5th to Baltimore for Brown, the Ravens 2nd round pick and a 2022 6th. Brown is going to be the left tackle for KC.
I think this deal was also moved along because the Ravens found their RT replacement in Alejandro Villanueva. (He has played 97% of the snaps in his career on the left side.) He had a visit to Baltimore this past week and the plan is to sign him after the draft so as not to impact the compensatory pick formula. Quite a few moving parts but the big thing is that Baltimore and Kansas City both have filled out their lines with these moves and Baltimore moves up from the 2nd to the 1st and gets an extra 3rd and 4th. A pretty good deal that basically equates to them getting a pick in the early 40s based on the draft value gained. UPDATE: The Ravens brought another tackle in for a visit so this deal isn't as "certain" as it was before.
Another deal in the AFC North, the Browns signed EDGE Jadaveon Clowney and released DT Sheldon Richardson. Clowney signed a 1-year deal with a maximum of $10M and they cut Richardson which ended up saving $10M. Basically a wash money wise but Clowney plays on the EDGE, which is generally seen as a more important position. EDGE was a big need going into the draft but Cleveland can now go another direction if they see fit.
The Tampa Bay Bucs signed RB Gio Bernard. I don't think Bernard is going to be a major contributor. Rather, it is important because I am 90% sure that Javonte Williams was on the Bucs radar big time at Pick 32. Yea, I have sources... kinda. It sounds like he isn't in the plans anymore but we will see come draft night.
Another running back move was the Cardinals signing RB James Conner to a 1-year deal. Very low risk and a really smart move if they want to make sure that Edmonds gets more playing time in 2021. Conner gets hurt every year so the team may still be in the running for another back. See what I did there? 😂
The Seahawks signed EDGE Aldon Smith, who had 5 sacks with the Cowboys last season. Smith was a Pro Bowl talent with the 49ers years ago but he got in some off-field trouble (multiple DUIs) and just got back into the NFL last year. Subsequent to his signing, Aldon was wanted by the police after allegedly being involved in an incident in Louisiana. He turned himself in and was released a few hours after. There isn't much information that has been released about it since but it'll be interesting to see if it affects his status as a Seahawk.
A small move leaguewide but a huge one for the team. The Pittsburgh Steelers re-signed LB Vince Williams. Vince was due almost $8M against the team cap in 2021. However, by releasing him and then signing him for the veteran minimum, Vince is going to only cost the team $4M approximately with his dead money from the previous contract added. This signing makes one less position the Steelers need to fill.
The Raiders have moved on from destroying their OL to their DL now. They waived DT Maurice Hurst and EDGE Arden Key. Both were 2018 prospects that went later in the draft than expected. Hurst had a medical issue with his heart, but it has not affected his play and he was actually one of the better players on the Vegas defense. Key went to rehab because of an issue with Marijuana prior to 2018. Both of them signed with the 49ers this past week.
The Rams have signed a new punter Corey Bojorquez. This is very bad news for All-Pro Johnny Hekker that has been with the Rams since 2012. The issue is the Rams have a salary cap problem and Hekker is the most expensive punter in the league. Those two things just don't mix. I expect he will be cut after the draft. I doubt he will be teamless in 2021 though, he still is one of the best in the game.
Last bit of player news is that we had a few retirements happen for some past NFL stars. Julian Edelman (35 next month), Jordan Reed (30), and Alex Smith (37 next month) all hung up their jerseys one last time and are walking away from the game. Each of these players had significant injury issues over the years and I think all of them would still be playing if they had been healthy throughout their career. As fans, I don't think we always realize how often those injuries can take a toll on these players. We just worry about what we are going to do in fantasy that week. I fall victim to it as well. Edelman is the only player that opens up a position of need for his team but the Patriots issues at WR extended beyond just him retiring.
The Bengals introduced some new uniforms last week and I actually don't hate them. The all-whites look too plain for me but I am a fan of all the other jersey/pant combos especially the orange ones. My biggest issue with the picture is that Joe Mixon is the one on the throne and not the QB with a big scar on his knee.
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Worth just a little blurb but Mike Tomlin got a 3-year extension on his contract that was going to be up in 2022. Since the merger in 1970, the Steelers have had a total of 3(!!!!!) head coaches. That number is absolutely ridiculous as a fan of a team that has had 7 head coaches (not including interims) since the year 2000.
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Pre-Draft Breakdowns
Denver Broncos
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
Team Needs: QB, ILB; Team Wants: ILB, RT, CB, RB
The offense is ready. They just need a QB to take them from potential to kinetic energy. I believe they are in a very similar situation to before they signed Peyton Manning. They went from an 8-8 team with Tim Tebow to 13-3 with a great QB. Lock isn't it. Get one of these QBs. The only other spot I feel like they need to address is the linebacker room. AJ Johnson is a decent player but they need to look strongly at replacing Josey Jewell. Josey is a decent player but there isn't enough athleticism out of him.
Draft Trends: New GM George Paton comes from Minnesota where they notoriously love to trade back and collect Day 3 picks. From 2016 to 2019, the Vikings selected a RB on Day 2 in three of the four drafts. Additionally, George and the VIkings took 5 DBs in the 1st round from 2012-2020. With John Elway at the helm, the Broncos invested in a QB at least every 2 years. Tim Tebow, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Drew Lock, and Brock Osweiler were all drafted QBs that played in a game since 2012.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I am very confident that the Broncos will NOT be trading up for a QB. I am fairly confident they won't be selecting a QB at 9 either, unless Fields is sitting there. I think the most likely scenario includes the Broncos trading down to the teens to grab another defensive player, but if they select at 9 it will be Parsons or a CB. Day 2 is going to bring out the Vikings idealogy from Paton as I think he will look to positions like LB and RB that aren't as "valued" as compared to other positions.
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Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
7th Round: 241 (13)
Team Needs: LT, OG, EDGE; Team Wants: CB, WR
I have been saying it most of the offseason but the one thing a young QB needs more than anything else is a stable OL and the Chargers do not have that. LT and RG/LG need a starter each. WR could be addressed because Mike Williams costs a lot against the cap this year and will be a free agent next season. I'd like to see the Chargers address their EDGE spot with Melvin Ingram out of town. Joey Bosa is great but I fear he could be doubled more often without a running mate. Corner doesn't feel like a worrisome area but Chris Harris has always been a premier nickel corner as opposed to outside.
Draft Trends: The Chargers have drafted primarily by need in the 1st round with GM Tom Telesco. They have valued athletes in the draft among their non-lineman. Their speed or 40 yard dash is specifically something that the Chargers pay attention to for most of their selections. On the flip side, the bench press is NOT something that will cross a player of their list at OL/DL. The Chargers are not afriad of small school prospects along the OL, drafting players from Sioux Falls and Western Kentucky on Day 2 since 2017.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I have been on a 'OT for the Chargers' bandwagon from the jump for the 1st round. The LT is too important a position to pass on. But I am shifting gears, I believe they are in on Horn or Farley at CB for their 1st round pick. It also helps an idea that the Chargers have fallen back to a few times. Drafting a small school OL on Day 2. If Dillon Radunz was there at 47, that would be a home run fit.
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Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
7th Round: None
Team Needs: CB, FS, RT; Team Wants: WR, OLB, NCB, DT
After all of the parody of the OL this offseason, only one spot really needs to be filled assuming rookie John Simpson slots in at RG. The right tackle position is almost equally as important as the left tackle spot and for a team that loves to run the ball, they should value getting a replacement. The playmaker positions on offense are overflowing with recent additions, but I wouldn't be surprised if they address WR again. They got 2 rookies last year and 2 FAs this year, yet not one of them I would consider a WR1 (besides Waller). After reloading their DL, the secondary is the biggest gaffe on the team. They drafted 2 CBs last year and 1 the previous year but none of them has shown anything. Keep taking swings at the bat.
Draft Trends: Jon Gruden re-joined the Raiders in 2018 and he seems to be the final decision maker on personnel over Mike Mayock. It makes sense then that coach has selected some non-value picks in the 1st round since his return. Damon Arnette, Clelin Ferrell, and Kolton Miller were all seen as HUGE reaches at the time. However, these players were all at need positions. The very noticeable trend especially with their 1st round picks is they are all from high-pedigree programs. Alabama and Clemson have dominated their last 2 drafts with 7 players taken.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: With the trend that Gruden doesn't care about "value" in his selections, it is extremely tough to narrow down expectations for the Raiders. I think we should expect that they will select a player at a position of need from a big school with their 1st rounder. The RT spot makes the most sense to me as to where they would go in the 1st round. As far as Day 2 goes, keep an eye on DT Daviyon Nixon out of Iowa.
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Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
7th Round: None
Team Needs: EDGE, ILB, WR; Team Wants: WR, OLB
With the offensive line set, the WRs are the only issue on offense. Hill is the only true WR that I trust on the team and they have 3 other players that work similarly to how Hill wins. They need a guy that can win contested catches (besides Kelce). Rarely do teams stop Mahomes, but when they do the KC defense hasn't been able to hold up. They need an EDGE to line up across from Frank Clark. They have an outstanding pair of DTs but on a 3rd down and long, I want EDGE rushers on the field and frankly Clark isn't that great either. The LB room could also use an upgrade. I know KC runs a lot of 3 safeties with either Sorenson or Mathieu playing in the box, but they either need to develop Willie Gay, who didn't play much as a rookie, or get more competition in the room.
Draft Trends: Speed kills. In addition to the Chiefs having the fastest trio of WRs in the NFL, they addressed speed on defense adding a 4.37 CB and 4.46 LB in last year's draft. Brett Veach has averaged more than 1 trade per draft as GM of the Chiefs and each of those trades was him moving up. Veach has drafted 7 DBs in his four drafts, only one was selected on Day 1 or 2. Veach has taken an offensive playmaker with the 1st pick of three of his four drafts.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: Kansas City has been very aggresive this offseason fixing their OL and I don't think they are done retooling their offense. I expect they will address the WR spot with the first of their 2nd round picks. Their other pick I am certain will be a speedy defensive player to continue that trend of adding speed everywhere.
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San Francisco 49ers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
7th Round: 230 (2)
Team Needs: CB; Team Wants: Starting QB, RG, EDGE, CB
This team has made a lot of strides this offseason without a ton of money. We know they are getting a new QB but whether he starts over Jimmy G immediately remains to be seen. Cornerback is really where I see a possible issue. Jason Verrett is a player who has been injured a lot in his career and while he is a baller when healthy, the rest of the position is thin behind him. They could use some decent depth there. The 49ers have plenty of EDGE talent but they value having A TON of guys and Dee Ford really hasn't lived up to his contract. His days could be numbered.
Draft Trends: The 49ers LOVE their defensive lineman early in the draft. In 5 of the last 6 drafts, the team's first round pick was a DL. It won't be this year, but the point is they value those positions even if they aren't a need. John Lynch has been very aggressive with trades in his 5 year GM stint. Including this year's trade, he has traded up or or down in the 1st round 4 times. The 49ers have addressed the WR position extensively the last 3 years with six taken in that time frame.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I expect the 49ers will select a QB with their first pick. EZ. I don't know who they will take. Fields or Lance makes more sense than Mac based on who the better prospects are. Though, Mac fits perfectly into the SF scheme. As of this writing, Mac is the favorite at -167 to be taken at 3. The gap between their 2nd and 3rd pick is rather large and I would not at all be surprised if the 49ers move up for a WR or CB. Shi Smith out of South Carolina? SF has taken a Gamecock in both of the last 2 drafts.
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Arizona Cardinals
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
7th Round: 243 (15), 247 (19)
Team Needs: SS, OG, TE; Team Wants: CB, WR, OG
The Cardinals have been aggressive the last 2 years going after flashy veteran names but could use some focus on non-sexy positions like offensive guard. Justin Pugh and JR Sweezy are adequate at best players. The tight end position is a glorified blocker for the Air-Raid system they run in AZ, but a mismatch TE would be a perfect distraction for Hopkins. Defensively, they need to continue to re-tool their secondary starting with the SS spot. Budda Baker is a great do-it-all safety and Simmons is a great do-it-all LB. But they need a player that can play in between them so they can do their specific roles better.
Draft Trends: The Cardinals have valued collegiate production (rather than players that are considered a project) out of a lot of their prospects since Steve Keim took over. They have not been afaid to take defensive chess pieces like Reddick, Simmons, and Baker, who all were pitched as versatile players. Keim has routinely taken 2 OL in each draft since 2016 with the exception being last year when they only had 6 selections. The Cardinals love taking players that are falling in the draft and appear at good value regardless of need.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: There are rumblings that AZ wants to move up into the top 12 to grab one of the top 4 pass catchers. I wouldn't put that level of aggressiveness past Keim, who has traded and acquired big names this offseason. It's just hard to say I expect it. I'll say if they stay at 16, they are going to be hoping one of the top 3 corners are there. For their 2nd round pick, WR seems like a safe expectation since they normally don't value OL with early picks.
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Seattle Seahawks
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 3
7th Round: 250 (22)
Team Needs: iOL, RT, CB, DT, WR; Team Wants: OLB
The biggest issue with the Seahawks over the years has been their OL. It isn't as bad as it has been in the past, but they do still need to address one of the interior OL spots (probably guard) and RT should be improved as well. The Seahawks have two top end WRs in Lockett and Metcalf but could use another pass-catching option for Russell, even with the Everett signing as a TE. The biggest woes feel like they are on defense this year with the CB room depleted. There are a bunch of familiar names but the production isn't up to a starting level standard. They also need to look at depth at DT and LB after they lost key veterans in free agency.
Draft Trends: The theme of almost every Seahawks draft in the last decade has been to trade back and acquire more swings at the bat. In fact, they haven't drafted less than 8 players since John Schneider became GM back in 2010. The Seahawks care not for the consensus or traditional style of drafting. They often take players ahead of where they are expected to go and take many players that are not at foundational positions with their premium selections. They put special value on the DL and LB positions and when they select a corner he will be tall and have dreads (i.e. Kelvin Joseph).
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: They only have one pick in this range so I am fairly confident that they trade back to acquire more picks. When they make their selection, they really need to address their cornerback room. Even Russell can admit that has to be the priority. Don't be surprised if they trade back more than once.
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Los Angeles Rams
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
7th Round: 252 (24)
Team Needs: NCB, iOL; Team Wants: LT, TE, CB, ILB
The Rams are set up to win in 2021. 2022 is a different story as age and the salary cap are not on their side. They need to look for an offensive tackle to replace Andrew Whitworth as he is 42 years old. Defensively, their CB room depth is extremely limited and they lost a key member to FA in Troy Hill, who could play outside or in the nickel. Looking forward, both ILBs are going to be free agents in 2022 so getting depth and future replacements here should be prioritized. They could also look to upgrade the interior now with 2 players headed to FA next year.
Draft Trends: Les Snead has only picked 2 defensive players with his first selection in any of his 8 drafts as GM of the Rams. The Rams do not normally draft for need in the current year. Instead they focus on being able to get coachable players that can shine in future years. For a team that doesn't focus on attending showcase events like the Senior Bowl, the Rams do tend to select players that attended the Senior Bowl.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: The Rams are a tricky team to guess what they will do because of how they draft based on future needs rather than current ones. My best expectation is that they will take at least one OL with one of these three picks. OT being the focus because of Whitworth's age. I could see them taking an ILB because of the future need as well.
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Which team will make the biggest splash in the Draft out of these teams? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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