NFL Pre-Draft Breakdowns: Northern Divisions - 4/23/21
Happy Friday to you all. Here with the Northern divisions today. I don't have too much extra info for you all besides that if you missed out on either of the previous 2 articles you can find them below. I hope you enjoy the Northern divisions today and look forward to the West on Monday!
AFC + NFC East Pre-Draft Breakdowns
AFC + NFC South Pre-Draft Breakdowns
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Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, OGx2, C; Team Wants: ILB, TE, CB
The Bengals need to prioritize Joe Burrow's development at all costs. That means surrounding him with better offensive line play so he doesn't tear his ACL again. That also means maximizing the playmakers around him. The RB position is the only spot that doesn't need any help, but I have a weird thought that they may try to add a day 3 back. The priority needs to lie on the interior OL, offensive tackle, and at WR in that order. The Bengals have 2 starting quality tackles and 3 awful interior lineman. The reason tackle should also be acquired is that Riley Rieff is on a 1-year deal. WR shouldn't be as prioritized but they did lose a decent chunk of targets with Gio Bernard and AJ Green gone. They worked on the linebacker core in the draft last year so I don't think they go there, but the EDGE spot could use some help alongside Trey Hendrickson.
Draft Trends: The Bengals have selected an offensive player with their top 2 selections in three of the last four drafts. In their last four drafts, a defensive player was their 3rd selection. Probably the most important draft trend, the Bengals do not trade up and they rarely trade down in the 1st round. The last time they traded up in the 1st was 1995. They have traded down in 2018, 2012, and then 2004. This stat has to be wrong because it's impossible for it to be true, but I am reading an article that has a gap from 2012 to 2004 where NO DRAFT TRADES happened in between those years. It has to be wrong, but if it isn't just wow.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: This 5th pick is 100% either Chase or Sewell. I have been on the Sewell train all offseason, but I think I am starting to lean towards Chase based on what I am hearing. If I am the Bengals, I would take Sewell. For Day 2, I would think that if they go Chase the R2 pick will be an OL because there still should be some leftover guys that didn't make it into Round 1. Their 3rd round pick, by default, has to be a defensive player and I really think it is going to be an EDGE based on how they attacked the secondary in free agency the past 2 years.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
7th Round: 245 (17), 254 (26)
Team Needs: RB, C, LG, NCB, CB, LT; Team Wants: QB, EDGE
Pittsburgh is in trouble. They are missing 3/5 of their offensive line from 2020 and their former LT just took a FA visit with a division rival. They also could really use a between the tackles RB to help alleviate some of the pressure of Ben's dead arm. Additionally, they should really put consideration into moving up and selecting Ben's replacement if one of the top 5 QBs start to fall. On defense, the picture isn't much prettier. Their CB room was purged losing starters Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson. Perhaps a current backup can fill into one of their roles but they do need to add at least young player to this room. The EDGE spot took a hit when Bud Dupree left for TEN, but Alex Highsmith should be able to come in and take up a good portion of his snaps.
Draft Trends: The Steelers tend to value big backs if they take them on either Day 1, Day 2, or early Day 3 with Bell, Conner, Samuels, and Snell as examples. If the Steelers look at a QB, expect he will be over 6'3 240 lbs (Mac is 227 lbs) based on Rudolph and Big Ben being the only 2 QBs taken on Day 1 or 2 since 2000. The Steelers have only taken Power 5 Conference players in the 1st round since 2004. In the last 7 drafts, their first round pick has NOT been a senior. The Steelers are not shy about their "tells", Tomlin and Colbert usually are in attendance at the Pro Day for their 1st round pick.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: Najee, Dickerson, or Jenkins in Round 1. Those are the only possibilities. I am 100% certain Dickerson will be available and am about 60% certain Najee will be. Tomlin and Colbert attended Alabama's Pro Day, not Oklahoma St. For Day 2, if the Steelers decide to be dumb and go RB, the only option is to load up on the OL with both of their selections. They need to prioritize double-dipping at the position. If they pass on Najee, they should be able to add a bigger back on Day 3.
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Baltimore Ravens
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
7th Round: None
Team Needs: RT, WR, EDGE; Team Wants: FS, C
The Ravens are in really good shape despite the "needs" listed here. Orlando Brown Jr was traded to the Chiefs on the day this article went live. So RT is officially wide open for a new body. WR is considered a need to me because they need to help Lamar complete easier throws than he did last year. Marquise Brown is not good as a #1 WR. They did sign Sammy Watkins but he won't play a full season. EDGE is the big spot I am concerned with. After losing their top 2 EDGE guys, they decided to resign their depth pieces behind them. They still need an alpha among the room though. The Free Safety position wasn't addressed after Earl Thomas received his walking papers but Elliot has been admirable in his wake.
Draft Trends: The Ravens have not selected an EDGE rusher in the first round since 2009. Since Decosta has taken over the team, they have put a focus on drafting small, shifty WRs to combat the long, tall corners. He must feel a similar way with RBs as his stable featuring JK Dobbins and Justice Hill. The Ravens are very aggressive in trading selections for veterans around the league. However, the Ravens don't normally trade up in the 1st round unless it is for a QB. In team history, only have they ever traded up six times and three times for a QB.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I was going to say EDGE rusher at 27 write it in ink, but this draft trend of not selecting EDGE in the 1st round is troubling. They have selected EDGE rushers on Day 2 in recent history and they often go for one on Day 3. Honestly, I know they won't reach for a player so I still believe that EDGE could be in their cards, but if they don't go there... Moehrig would be a great selection. With their 2nd first rounder, it doesn't sound like they will go RT. There are reports that they have Villanueva tabbed as their future RT but won't make the deal official until after the draft. There are a lot of rumblings about a WR for that other 1st rounder. On Day 2, I believe they will address the OL in some manner. The center position has been a bit of a revolving door and I believe they have enough guys to handle it now, but drafting interior OL should be a yearly practice.
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Cleveland Browns
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
7th Round: 257 (29)
Team Needs: EDGE, DT, OLB, ILB; Team Wants: WR
Even after the Clowney signing, I think the Browns need another player at the EDGE spot. Clowney has been more of a rotational player than he was earlier in his career. The rest of the worrisome spots on the Browns are also on defense and specifically at linebacker. The Browns are probably going to run three safeties more often than the two they did in 2020, so they really only need 2 LBs on the field. That means they NEED 2 new LBs because the guys on the roster aren't cutting it.
Draft Trends: The last four 1st round picks the Browns have made have all been from foundational positions (QB, OT, CB, EDGE). Andrew Berry has only been in the scouting business for 10 years and has only been at the helm of a team for 1 draft. But in that draft, we find that all four of his Day 1 and 2 picks came from SEC schools. Berry did show a little bit of a trend in 2020 about trading down and continuing to stockpile selections as he moved down twice on Day 2. Also in his first stint in Cleveland, they drafted a lot of athletic players like Jabril Peppers, David Njoku, Myles Garrett, Deshone Kizer, Emmanuel Ogbah.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I have two expectations from the Browns. Neither are extravagant, but it has to be done. They are going to take a defensive player with their first pick 100%. I still lean that the pick will be an EDGE rusher but they don't have to force that pick with the Clowney signing. There will be some LBs available in that range as well. On Day 2, expect at least one trade back from one of their three selections. It is in Berry's blood to move back.
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Detroit Lions
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
7th Round: None
Team Needs: WR, RT, LG, ILB, OLB, CB; Team Wants: FS, SS, OG, NCB
The WR room has been completely revamped with the exodus of the Law Team of Golladay, Jones, Amendola. Signing Perriman and Tyrell Williams doesn't really do it for me but there are more important positions that I think should be a priority. Specifically, the offensive line has a few good pieces but LG and RT really could use some help. They signed Vaitai last year as a versatile player that could play either guard or tackle, but really he can't play either guard or tackle as a starter. Next up on the priority list is to give Jeff Okudah a running man. He struggled in year 1 so this isn't to replace him, more to continue to push him to get better and round out the outside. There are a few other needs but I believe both safety positions really should be upgraded as well. Not as dire as the other spots, but very much needs help.
Draft Trends: The Lions have a new HC and GM so throw out the poor trends of never addressing the EDGE spot. Campbell and Holmes are on the case! Campbell is a former player turned TEs coach. In his short stint as Miami's interim HC, he was an absolute madman and had his players running through walls for him. Campbell is going to value the 'underdog' mentality as well as guys that just love football more than anything. Holmes has been quoted as a guy who wants 'game wreckers' and the trend is evident with the Rams. In the last 2 drafts alone, they drafted 2 safeties, 2 RBs, 1 EDGE, 1 WR, and 1 CB on Days 1 and 2. All positions that can "wreck a game".
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: For a team entering a rebuild, six picks is just not enough. They need to strongly consider trading back on one of these Day 1 or 2 picks to get some more swings at the bat. That being said, I have to think they will take one of these pass catchers or Penei Sewell at 7. Any of the 4 pass catchers can wreck a game and at least one of them will be available at 7. On Day 2, I expect the theme of defensive backs early in the draft to carry over from the Rams with Brad Holmes.
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Minnesota Vikings
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10
7th Round: None
Team Needs: EDGE, FS, LT, iOL; Team Wants: WR/TE, QB?
The offensive line needs help again... shocker. The team cut Riley Rieff and added iOL Mason Cole but now they need a LT and one guard. Bradbury at center and Cole at guard are the only starters that I have some confidence in at the moment. Ezra Cleveland hopefully gets some more playing time in his sophomore season as well. The position that I feel needs to be prioritized heavier is at EDGE. Danielle Hunter is the only player you can trust and he has asked for a trade or a raise. If he is moved, this position becomes a real big issue. They lost their All-Pro FS Harris to FA so they should look to replace him too, unless they take one of their many CBs and throw them back there. Last thing, there has been a lot of speculation about the Vikings being a sneaky team for a QB. I don't know if I buy it, but Kirk is clearly not THE guy in terms of production.
Draft Trends: The Vikings like to use Day 2 picks (one taken on Day 1) on OL and have done so in 4 straight drafts. With this current regime, seven of the nine WRs taken have been from Round 5 or later. They clearly like to find value at this position. The Vikings used a 1st round pick on a defensive lineman last in 2014. To go further, they haven't used a Day 1 or a Day 2 pick on a DL since 2015. Spielman has been known to trade back in the 1st round. Since 2014, he has traded back in the draft 19 times specifically to amass Day 3 picks.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: Before I get into the expectations, I hear that Spielman likes Parsons. I don't necessarily expect it because of where I view this teams weakness, but I wouldn't be shocked. I am going to against the trends here because when I look at this team and I hear the rumors, everything points to... an EDGE rusher. Yes, I think in the first round they take either Paye or Phillips depending on how they view the medicals. If they pass on those guys, I fully expect them to trade back and acquire more picks (possibly a 2nd rounder?). Even when they had two 1st rounders last year they traded back. On Day 2, there will be an offensive lineman taken. The need is there and the trend. Book it.
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Chicago Bears
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
7th Round: None
Team Needs: WRx2, RT, SS; Team Wants: DT, QB, RG, CB
Anthony Miller is on his way out. Allen Robinson is gone in 2021. WR is the CODE RED ALERT level of need. It is very hard to ignore the talent disparity from the left side of the offensive line to the right. The Bears need a major rehaul upfront at right guard and right tackle. CB may be higher on the Bears priority list than mine. I don't trust Trufant much and Jaylon Johnson is just a sophomore still growing into the NFL. I just think the SS position need is a bit more drastic from a quality of play level. QB will always be a question for Chicago until they get their next guy. I just don't see it this year.
Draft Trends: Ryan Pace is not afraid to take draftable players from very small schools. Since 2016, he has taken players from Valdosta St, William & Mary, Ashland, Kutztown, and a few other Division 1A schools. Ryan Pace also isn't afraid to make a trade in the 1st round. In 2016, Pace moved up 2 spots to select EDGE Floyd. In 2017, he moved up 1 spot for QB Trubisky. 2018 was the only other year he had a 1st round pick. Not an exact trend per se, but the Bears under Pace have seemed to attack one position specifically in each of his drafts. In 2020 it was CBs, 2019 RBs, 2018 LBs, and 2016 the safety position. In the 18-20 years, they used their first pick on them and then drafted another at the same position later (In 2020, TE was technically taken first by 7 picks... I'm going with it.).
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: The Bears normally don't do a great job at hiding their intentions and especially this year given how obvious their search for a QB was. They are in on the QBs this year but are too far back for any of them unless one falls to the teens. Therefore, I expect they stay put and select their WR1 of the future. I believe Bateman specifically will be their choice and he should be there unless someone shocks the world. On Day 2, I wouldn't be surprised to see another WR taken but I don't expect they will take an OL. Pace has only used 2 picks on Day 1 or Day 2 on OL.
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Green Bay Packers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10
7th Round: 256 (28)
Team Needs: WR, C, ILB, CB; Team Wants: RT, NCB, DT
Wide Receiver gets all the headlines for GB because they haven't given Rodgers a new, highly rated guy in so long. But the real priority needs to be at CB and Center. The Packers are in desperate need of a new snapper, but I feel they should prioritize the cornerback first. They did resign Kevin King so the position isn't a dire need, but upgrading or at least bringing in competition for King is necessary. He is limited with his speed and the way offenses are evolving, the DBs need to evolve too. The Nickel spot shouldn't be ignored either. The Packers haven't seemed to throw a ton of resources at the linebacker position over the years but it is time to somewhat invest. They need a run stopper desperately.
Draft Trends: The Packers have a very funky trend on Day 3. In 3 of the last 4 GB drafts, they have selected 3 players from the same exact position. It was iOL in 2020, WR in 2018, and RB in 2017. The position they have chosen either has been a current position of need or a need that will pop up because of expiring contracts the following season. Possibilities for continuing this trend? CB is a need this year and next year. WR will have Adams and 3 other WRs expiring in 2022. TE maybe with Tonyan as a FA next year. And obviously LB would make sense from this years need. The trend everyone knows about is how GB hasn't selected a WR in the 1st round since Rodgers became the starter so I won't kill you with that one. But to go further, the Packers have selected only THREE offensive players with their first pick in the Draft since he was drafted in 2005. Those 3? WR Jordy Nelson, OT Derrok Sherrod???, and the infamous QB Jordan Love. The Packers also have a trend of drafting high RAS scored players on Day 1 and 2.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: The Packers are one of the more underrated drafters in this century in my opinion. They rarely have top selections and they still always get a quality guy or two from each draft. I expect no different this year. Does that count as an expectation? I'm so good at this. My 1st Round mocks have varied for GB but I have landed on CB or trade down... I think. One of the top 4 may not be there but Stokes and Samuel will be very hard to pass on. Center is certainly in consideration but I think there is a guy in Austin Reiter who is a FA that could fill that gap for a year. Don't force the center pick in R1. On Day 2, if Humphrey is there that is a home run, but I don't expect it. The Packers generally don't value LBs on Day 2 so I think they will address the defensive line.
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Which team will make the biggest splash in the Draft out of these teams? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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