NFL Pre-Draft Breakdown: Eastern Divisions - 4/19/21
NEW SERIES!!! I did an unofficial poll to a few of the readers last week and decided that a team-by-team breakdown for the Draft would be something you all might be interested in. I am going to specifically be focusing on 4 pillars. The 2021 Draft Capital, Team Needs/Wants, Draft Trends by Team/Coach/GM, and My Perspective on what they may do on Day 1 and Day 2.
I am going to be doing this the same way I did the Team Needs/Wants series. 4 articles with 8 teams in each. Today is the East obviously. Check back on Wednesday for the South divisions. Friday will be the North and then next Monday will be the West. Next Wednesday is the day right before the 1st round which will be my final mock draft and then we made it. Crazy how slow it went for what seemed like forever and now there isn't enough time to do every article I had planned. I hope you all enjoy this series!
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New York Jets
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10 ()=Pick in that roundTeam Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, CB, NCB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB, C, CB
A lot to unpack here so I'm sorry if this is going to be long but I won't have every team like this. I will only address the priority positions. Last year, GM Joe Douglas tried to be really aggressive in getting OL. It worked, but it didn't. They added 5 new bodies but the only ones who were above replacement level were the LT and C. The contracts given out were generally responsible, so they should be able to continue to attack RT, LG, and RG without remorse. CBs and EDGEs are going to be focal points for Saleh's defense. Because he added 2 EDGEs in Curry and Lawson in FA, I expect CB will be an early priority for the draft and they may double-dip at the position. After the OL and CB spot, RB is the largest hole but they may not need to draft one early because of the lack of importance for the position. WR has been addressed this offseason with Corey Davis and Keelan Cole, but I wouldn't be shocked if they add a new slot WR and cut Crowder.
Draft Trends: Take a QB every 3 years. Normally this is a good habit but for the Jets it is because they need to move on to a new one. In all seriousness, Joe Douglas hasn't been involved in too many Drafts (hard to find trends in that time), as he just started getting his fingerprints on them in 2017 with the Eagles. One thing he does look for is leadership traits plus smart, tough players. I feel like most teams are looking for that but keep an eye on players that were team captains. The Jets have taken at least one defensive lineman in each draft since 2011 except 2016.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: We all know Zach Wilson is the pick at 2. Their 2nd pick has a bit more mystery behind it. My guess would be defense and I think specifically cornerback. Greg Newsome or Caleb Farley are my best guesses for 25. They were very well rounded by position in the 1st Draft with Joe Douglas, so I think they will continue spreading the love to different positions and get at least 1 OL on Day 2. I am unsure if they go RB in this draft but something tells me it will be easier to select one with the thought of taking some of the pressure of the rookie QB.
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Miami Dolphins
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
The Dolphins biggest needs lie at the playmaker positions on offense. Tua needs a big-bodied RB and at least one WR. The biggest issue with the Dolphins offense continues to be that the depth at WR is tested because 4 of the top 5 guys are injury prone. EDGE is the biggest weakness on defense after cutting Van Noy and trading away Lawson. But I don't expect the position to be addressed early on. Depending on how Miami views Geisicki's extension talks, they may look to grab another TE (besides Pitts at 6 if he is there). OL is not the "need" position the media portrays it to be, but adding a center/guard would be wise.
Draft Trends: The Dolphins tend to value foundational players in the early rounds and are willing to play the waiting game on "value positions" like RB. The Dolphins value draft picks in all rounds, but especially on Day 3, and are very happy to move back to collect them. The Dolphins have very strict offensive line standards and are looking for big players who are also athletic in the lower half (specifically looking for good broad jumps). The last time the Dolphins coached the Senior Bowl, they drafted many players that year from that group of players. They coached the Senior Bowl in 2021.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I am fairly confident I know what the Dolphins plans are. They will take a pass-catcher with their first selection, whether it is Pitts or a WR. A dream scenario would have Parsons fall to them at 18 but otherwise, they could address EDGE, RB or just go BPA. On Day 2, I expect them to select at least one of the Senior Bowl EDGE players they had. Cam Sample, Boogie Basham, Payton Turney, Elerson Smith. If they didn't draft Najee at 18, I will put money down that they take Javonte Williams at 36, assuming he is there. I also think they could look to the Alabama interior OL at either Landon Dickerson, Deonte Brown, or Alex Leatherwood.
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New England Patriots
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10Team Needs: WRx2; Team Wants: QB, ILB
One of the least needy teams in the NFL lost another WR when Edelman retired last week. They need at least 2 WRs to work alongside Jakobi Meyers because Harry hasn't shown enough yet. But they did add the TEs and Agholor in the offseason. Newton is not going to be the franchise QB for years to come, but he could be an important bridge QB for a new rookie. It doesn't seem like they trust Stidham.
Draft Trends: Expect the unexpected. There are very few noticeable trends besides that the Patriots always value DBs in the draft. Expect them to invest in the position early and probably more than once. The Patriots also focus on OL in the later rounds of the draft.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: Who knows man? I don't think they will address WR on Day 1 but on Day 2 I certainly think it should happen. A defensive back with one of these premium positions also makes a lot of sense given how they value the position. I would not be shocked at all if they just move back and collect some future selections because of how hard it was to evaluate in 2021.
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Buffalo Bills
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 7Team Needs: NCB; Team Wants: EDGE, CB
Not only do the Bills have very few needs, but they are very deep at many positions as well. The CB spots past Tre'Davious White have been OK but nothing spectacular. The nickel spot could use an upgrade but adding another corner to battle with Levi Wallace would also be smart. The Bills have a lot of DL but don't have a super high-quality EDGE rusher.
Draft Trends: The Bills are very comfortable using early picks on players from non-Power 5 conferences. In fact, 5 out of the 12 Day 1 and Day 2 selections the Bills have had in the Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott era have been from non-Power 5 schools. In 3 out of their 4 drafts, the Bills have selected a defensive lineman on Day 1 or 2 as well. If the Bills select an interior offensive lineman, he is likely got to be a hit. They have drafted 3 high-quality starters in the last 4 years at guard.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I would be very shocked if there is not a defensive lineman taken with one of their premium selections. Whether it be at EDGE or DL, they like to invest in their line. I also have a slight expectation that they will draft an offensive playmaker. That isn't that definitive because it could be a WR/TE/RB. But I feel like they are pretty well-stocked at all of those positions so this would purely be a splurge or BPA.
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Dallas Cowboys
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10Team Needs: CB, OT; Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, EDGE, SS, FS
It is to the point where at least one and possibly both OTs for the Cowboys get hurt and miss time. They need to look to the future or at least for depth because when they go down everything malfunctions. Corner has been a position Dallas has struggled with for years, but they do have a competent player in Jourdan Lewis and a rookie that had some bright moments in Diggs last year. They need another piece still. The EDGE group lost Aldon Smith who provided some decent production last year. I don't think Randy Gregory has proven that he deserves to be a starter. Even if they are sure Dak is 100%, they should look to add a backup QB.
Draft Trends: There is a big correlation between high RAS (Relative Athletic Score) grades and the Cowboys being interested in a player. Dallas drafted the 2nd most players with at least a 9.25/10 RAS grade (Raiders were 1st) since 1987. They aren't afraid to take risky 2nd round picks either. Randy Gregory (drug issues), Jaylon Smith (injury issues), Trysten Hill (work ethic issues) were all 2nd round picks in the last 6 drafts that were considered questionable at the time.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I am firmly in the 'CB at Pick 10' for Dallas camp. The only way I see anything else is if they trade out of the pick and even if they go back I see a CB. On Day 2 though, my foresight is hazy. There are quite a few Day 2 prospects that certainly fit their high RAS score requirement. I think another OL investment would make sense and if that is the case, Spencer Brown, Trey Smith, and Brady Christensen all could make sense in the 3rd round.
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New York Giants
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6Team Needs: EDGEx2, LB; Team Wants: iOLx2, RT, DT
Needs #1 and 2 should be defensive lineman. Danny Shelton was the only significant piece added and he will be a 50% snap taker as a run stuffer. They need help on the EDGE desperately. Leonard Williams should not be your leading sacker even if he is good at pass rushing. Linebacker needs an upgrade as well. They need someone at this position who can cover backs and TEs and not be a liability. The OL needs reinforcements as well. Solder is not good anymore and the interior is swiss cheese for being mountain men.
Draft Trends: Dave Gettleman has been the GM for the Giants and Panthers since the 2013 season. In that time, he has traded down in the NFL Draft a total of ZERO TIMES. He does have a history of trading up and going after players that "fall". Gettleman also has a thing for "hogmollies", which are beefy offensive and defensive lineman in the early rounds.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: My only expectation is for Gettleman to make the unpopular pick. Maybe they draft the right position but they take the wrong guy. I'm not sure. If they go DL in the first, they would probably pick Paye over Phillips as an example. If they go WR maybe they take Toney instead of Devonta Smith or Waddle. Besides that, I am confident they will take an OL on Day 2. Gettleman loves his big men.
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Philadelphia Eagles
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 11Team Needs: WRx2, LBx2; Team Wants: CB, C, G, QB, EDGE
The Eagles need weapons for Jalen Hurts. I believe if they find an offer for Zach Ertz on their plate they will take it, leading to even more of a need. Reagor was the oft-injured 1st round pick from a year ago and Dallas Goedert is the only reliable option they have. Hopefully, Fulgham finds his feet again. They could use some depth along their ageing OL as well. Brooks is one of the best guards in the NFL but he has missed time over the past few years with very serious injuries. Jason Kelce is likely in the final year of his career with Philly as well. There isn't one LB the Eagles have that can't be upgraded on. It is one of the weakest LB rooms in the NFL. Derek Barnett hasn't lived up to his 1st round pick status and the EDGE group could just use more bodies.
Draft Trends: The Eagles have only selected from their original 1st round pick location only twice since 2016, including the 2021 Draft. That's not all for trades though. The Eagles have traded 15 times over the last 5 Drafts, not including the Wentz trade. They have invested heavily in DB, OL, and DL over the years, but the top of their drafts don't tend to follow any patterns.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: 1st round CB or WR. I'll do you one better. Their first round pick will either be Horn, Farley, Smith, or Waddle. Not a hot take. But it is a fact. I expect the Eagles to make a move on Day 2 as well. Whether they trade away Ertz for a pick, move up (or back into the 3rd) or down, they will be active per usual. As to who they might select on Day 2, I am not so sure. They really need front 7 help on defense but they aren't always known for selecting for need. Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised at an interior OL pick on Day 2.
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Washington Football Team
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8Team Needs: LB, LT; Team Wants: EDGE, FS, iOL
The offense has been reimagined with Fitzpatrick and Samuel added to the fold. The LT position is still of need though. Third round pick Geron Christian isn't too bad as the current guy but with the few "needs" they have, they should address an upgrade. The LB room could use a do-it-all outside LB. Bostic still roams the middle of the field, but a guy that can move sideline to sideline is absent. EDGE isn't a need at all but they may look for more depth with Kerrigan not resigning.
Draft Trends: Defensive line every year. Washington's best unit is that way because of the significant investments in the draft. In each of the last 4 drafts, they have selected a defensive lineman with a 1st round pick. They have also used a top 150 pick on a RB in each of the last 4 drafts, but that was partially due to the drafted RBs not proving themselves. Alabama's factory has at least one direct shipment to Washington it seems like every year, 4 players in the last 4 years.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I have absolutely no clue what Washington is going to do at 19. They are one of the inflection points in this draft that could tilt it in a weird direction because I don't expect them to go LB or LT in the 1st round based on who I expect will be available. Is it an expectation if I expect them to NOT go in a certain direction? Screw it! I'm going with that! On Day 2, they might still be in a range for a couple of the tackles that are falling due to uneven play or a smaller conference or what have you. Radunz, Eichenberg, Mayfield, Christensen, etc all could be available in the 2nd.
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This is not a question but it has a question mark? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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