Let's Talk About... Deshaun Watson's Trade Prospects - 1/8/21
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Deshaun Watson is what I like to call 'Upsetti Spaghetti'. What the heck is going on? I wake up on Thursday afternoon and have a chat message. It says, "what would you give up in a trade for Watson if you were the GM? I'd give Tua and 3 1s." I still have drool all over my face and am not at all ready for the cornoration. Why is he asking me this? Also shoutout to the Champion of the Myth of Patrick Laird League, Will Shay.
*Opens up the twitter machine. (Follow me by the way @KyleTheCommish so you can know when these articles are live. Spoiler: Noon every MWF).*
Well well well... Let's Talk about Deshaun Watson's Trade Prospects.
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Before we dive too deep into the weed's, I should explain WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED by national and local Houston reporters.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Network tweeted yesterday, Deshaun Watson is extremely unhappy with the organization after the Owner informed him he would be involved in the hiring processes of the vacant GM and HC positions. Deshaun was not involved in the hiring of new GM Nick Caserio. Ian later followed up and said that Texans brass has tried to reach out to Deshaun since then and he has not returned those calls.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk broke the story and reported that Deshaun has been talking to Texans teammates about the possibility of being traded.
Albert Breer of MMQB wrote that Mahomes reached out to Watson about Eric Bienemy possibly being his head coach. Watson then advocated to Texans brass about EB. The Texans were the only team of the 7 HC openings in the NFL that did not interview him.
Finally, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle mentioned that the Texans WILL NOT be trading Deshaun Watson.
OK, that's quite a bit of information. A few things I will say just right off the bat. John McClain is the most plugged-in Houston sports resource in the world. He has been the first on every single major sports story for the Astros, Texans, and Rockets for years. So I tend to believe what he puts out there. HOWEVER, I am 100% certain that the Texans PR team went straight to John on purpose to put this news out there. All teams know who the most reputable journalists in their area are and they use them to their advantage for smokescreens all of the time. (Hey I learned things when I worked in sports!) But how do we know if this scenario is a smokescreen or not?
Next, sometimes it is just a slow news day and people pick at a loose straw they see here and there. Mike specifically stated in his article and subsequent interviews on Thursday that this was corroborated by multiple people in different NFL circles. Meaning this information has validity to it. But one thing I found hilarious about his report were the words "possibility", "quiet", and "potentially" about all of this.
The story that really surprised me of the bunch though was Albert Breer's. Watson and Mahomes (and Trubisky lol) will forever be linked by the 2017 Draft and have become friends competing over the last few years. Eric Bienemy in the 2020 offseason was supposed to be THE GUY to hire as a HC because of his work with the Chiefs offense and working with Andy Reid. Andy has been the biggest proponent of EB out there. The coaches love EB, his players love him, and every single team wants to take a piece of the World Champion Chiefs. So when he wasn't hired in the 2020 cycle, some red flags were raised. Some rumors have circulated that he isn't the best interviewer, but obviously, those never confirmed. I think there may be some... other... kind of biases, but I won't go into it beyond that.
But now we are in here in the 2021 coaching cycle. EB again the hottest name out there. Mahomes reaches out to Deshaun. Deshaun reaches out to his team. 7 open head coaching gigs and the only one to not interview him... the Houston Texans. THE ONLY TEAM. HOW HARD IS IT TO JUST DO IT? The GM hire and him being upset? OK you know I get that you want to be involved, but honestly how often do you interact with the GM? But the Head freaking Coach? The QB and the HC have to be completely symbiotic for a team to be successful. They are the two most important cogs in the building. I just don't get it.
Actual account of what happened inside the Houston Texans facility the last 4 days:
*Texans brass open up Google. Types "how to get good at football". See's 10 minute training video on Youtube. Get's into Youtube wormhole and eventually is watching a video about how the Matriarch is the most important Elephant in the herd. Looks at the clock. It's been 3 days. Quickly calls up every coach they can think of. Forgets the only one that matters.*
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If there is one thing I know about this entire situation, Deshaun Watson is pissed off. He is pissed off that his team went 4-12. He is pissed off that his team has no 1st round pick this year. He is pissed off that his team has a projected NEGATIVE $20 MILLION in cap space in 2021. Meaning his already crappy team is going to have to cut players with higher contracts like JJ Watt. He is already pissed off about losing Will Fuller this offseason, but he is still pissed off about losing Deandre Hopkins FOR A SECOND ROUND PICK last year.
Deshaun deserves better than what the Texans can give him right now and in the future. If you take a look at general roster construction, you generally focus your resources and money towards getting a OT, Edge, CB and QB. These are known as cornerstone positions. If you work it right, these positions you hopefully can draft and then eventually pay the most money on your team. The positions on the team that you generally want to dedicate less money and high-priced resources towards are RB, LB, and slot WR. You don't want to ignore these positions, but the hope is you can get above replacement-level players in the later rounds of the draft or cheaper FA contracts for these spots.
Let's take a look at Spotrac so we can see where the Texans spend their money (in 2020).
RB: $16M, 7.4% of Cap, 1st in NFL (most money spent at the position in NFL)
LB: $34M, 15.6% of Cap, 7th in NFL
WR: $26M, 12% of Cap, 7th in NFL
OL: $37M, 17% of Cap, 10th in NFL
DL: $23M, 10.5% of Cap, 24th in NFL
Secondary: $22M, 10.3% of Cap, 23rd in NFL
QB: $14M, 6.5% of Cap, 19th in NFL
These numbers kinda give us an idea, but let's dig deeper to give a sense of where they truly excel and where they are sloppy with their cap.
RB: By now everyone knows about the horrendous, David Johnson and a 2nd for Deandre Hopkins and a 4th deal from 2020. The WORST part about the deal though? David Johnson was, at the time, one of the few RBs making over $10M a year. But his injury history and play of recent did not say he deserved it. He was brought over with 2 years $20M left on his deal. Additionally, they have Duke Johnson on the roster who is owed 2 years and $8M still. This is not a position where you want 1 guy, let alone 2 that are on any sort of meaningful contract unless they are a complete difference-maker.
LB: This and RB is where I just don't understand at all what the thinking is. The Texans play a base 3-4 so they have their OLB rush the passer most of the time. So Whitney Mercilus "counts" as a LB. Mercilus is a 30 year old player that is in the 2nd year of a 4 year $54M contract. He hasn't got double digit sacks in 6 years. Moving on... Benardrick McKinney has 3 years $27M left on his deal. He is an inside LB that does not have many run stops, sacks, FF, INTs or any meaningful statistic. He has graded out as a "good" player 2 times in his 6 year career, per PFF. The only bright spot... Zach Cunningham is a really underrated LB because he can cover and is tough enough to be able to stop the run. Unfortunately for him, he just signed a 4 year $58M that begins in 2021, so he will be stuck in Houston for awhile.
Slot WR: After the Hopkins trade, the WR corps was suddenly lacking (weird) in Houston. So BOB (Bill O'Brien) decided to make the shrewd decision to sign a 30 year old, oft-injured Randall Cobb for 3 years $27M and make $18M of that guaranteed. Cobb missed the last 6 games due to injury and got 38 catches in 2020. OOF.
LT: Left tackle. Also stands for Laremy Tunsil. HA look at me, I'm punny. Possibly the most important position on the OL. However, in the modern era, you really need at least 3 great OL to have a great unit. The Texans traded pretty much everything (2 1st rounders and 1 2nd) to Miami for Laremy and Kenny Stills (cut because who knows why). Then, the Texans had the forethought... to not pay Laremy right away and give him all the leverage in contract negotiations. Truly brilliant. He ended up putting pen to paper last offseason on a 3 year $66M deal. At the time of the signing, he reset the OL market by more than FOUR MILLION A YEAR. He is now the 2nd highest paid OL in the NFL. Listen... Tunsil is a great player. He isn't worth the 26th, 3rd, and 35th overall picks plus $22M a year. Hilariously, the Texans OL has not gotten any better since his arrival.
Edge: JJ Watt, 3-time defensive player of the year, 5-time pro bowler, 5-time All Pro, Man of the Year award winner. Also, JJ Watt, since 2016 played in 48 of a possible 80 games. JJ is now 31 years old and entering his 11th year in the league. He was an amazing player. Probably a HOFer. But he isn't the same guy who won all those awards. He is still above average, but is owed $17M next year and can be cut this offseason with nothing in dead cap. Next best player on their DL? Who knows.
CB: The best business decision the Texans have made the last 2 years is Bradley Roby. He signed with the Texans this past offseason for 3 years $31M and he did not disappoint (except for the suspension). Continuously shadowing the opponents #1 WR with success. Vernon Hargreaves on the other side of the field was torn to shreds and was the league's worst corner in 2020 (but Vernon was incredibly cheap).
QB: Deshaun's deal that he signed this offseason wasn't that large against the cap IN 2020 because it was a 4-year extension from the end of his rookie deal (plus 5th-year option). He only cost $9.8M against the cap. Next year that goes up to $16M. The next 4 years? $40, 42, 37, and 32. Regardless of the money, he was still one of the best draft picks in their history and they needed to pay him. He is an amazing talent and amazing is expensive.
Overall, the Texans have some good and some awful with their roster construction. The biggest issue is that because they paid Deshaun already and they have awful construction at RB and LB, their cap is incredibly tight. Additionally, they can't bring in fresh talent to the team because they traded away 2 top 35 picks in this draft and 2 top 60 picks in the last draft. They have talent at their 4 cornerstone positions, but they are all paid already. They don't have talent elsewhere on the roster and those positions are already paid as well.
Why did I highlight all of this? To show the Texans are far away from competing again.
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OK, let's rein it back in. The Texans... not well run. Not a great future, at least what we currently can see. What is going to happen?
As previously stated, they are already over the projected cap, so they will have to cut multiple players. Most teams generally want to have around $10M at the minimum to be able to sign a player or 2 in FA and pay their draft class. So they need to move about $30M worth of players. Now you may be thinking... wait you just spelt out that Deshaun is about to have his salary jump. What if they trade him? Slow down cowboy (or cowlady). Get it... cuz Texas.
If they trade him, he will cost $5M against the Texans cap in 2021 anyway and there will be a $21M dead cap hit (dead cap means money you are paying to a player that is no longer on the team). All of that still needs to be accounted for. On top of it, Deshaun is the best player on the team by a long shot. The Texans have absolutely no reason to trade him.
"But Mister Commish, if Watson is that good, couldn't he bring back a lot of assets to the team if he was traded?"
The skinny here? Honestly, no one has any clue. There hasn't been a trade in the modern era for a Quarterback that is firmly in his prime with 10+ possible years left to play in his career. Everyone is salivating at the possibilities because every team besides KC, GB, SEA, and BUF should be calling about Watson. He is that good.
I normally am not one for hypotheticals, but for the sake of this article, what could a trade with Watson in it entail?
1: The Texans would likely want a young QB or a top 5 pick back so they can select a rookie QB. If you are trading a star QB, you need to try to find another star. But that is just the very beginning of the demands.
2: Houston needs a hard reset. They need to build from within. After moving on from their older players, they will need to invest in the youths. Getting AT LEAST 2 1st rounders, 1 Day 2 Pick, and 1 Day 3 pick is where it should start.
3: If the Texans want to avoid some cap issues, they should consider sending over-the-hill players with money still left on their deals in this trade. Shaving money off your cap by making a different team pay it, would be an underrated part of any deal. This option may not be something that is included in a potential deal, but the Texans would be wise to explore it.
Now that we know the recipe to getting this done, let's see what grocery stores we can shop from.
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3 teams have multiple 1st round picks in the 2021 Draft. Ironically, they are the teams selecting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Jacksonville has the 1st pick and the Rams pick which is TBD. The Jets have the 2nd pick and the Seahawks pick (who is playing the Rams tomorrow) and is TBD. The Dolphins have the 3rd and 18th picks in the 1st round. Jacksonville and Miami also hold 2 2nd round picks in this draft. The Jets are the only team that currently has 2 1st round picks in the 2022 Draft.
Let's look at cap space. JAX and NYJ are also 1st and 2nd in available cap room. MIA is 10th. But there are several other expected QB needy teams like IND, NE, and the WFT all with over $40M projected space available.
One thing that is interesting about Deshaun's trade situation is he has a "no-trade" clause in his contract. However, the clause is there so that Watson can block any trade that is created if he doesn't want to go to that team. So we will need to find a place for Deshaun that is ready to win now and often. Teams that I think are a "QB away" from seriously contending for a title in 2021 are SF, CHI, LAR, NO, BAL, PIT, IND.
When it all comes down to it, there are only 3 teams I think that could even approach the table for this trade.
Jacksonville Jaguars trade the #1 Overall Pick (Trevor Lawrence), the Rams 1st round pick in 2021 (in the 20s), their 2nd 2nd round pick in 2021 (in the 50s), and K'lavon Chaisson for Deshaun Watson and Whitney Mercilus. The Jags are the team most well equipped to handle this type of calamitous move with the money to pay him and the number of draft selections at their disposal. Chaisson is a 1st round pick from last year and with the Texans likely moving on from Watt and Mercilus, they will need the pass rusher. However, facing off against Watson 2 times a year for the next 10 years is not something Houston will want. I doubt this happens.
San Francisco 49ers trade the #12 Overall Pick in 2021, their 1st round pick in 2022, their 2nd round pick in 2022, their 3rd round pick in 2023, Jimmy Garappolo and Dee Ford for Deshaun Watson. I am deathly afraid of what John Lynch can do on the phones. I still don't understand how he finessed Ryan Pace of the Bears to trade up a single spot in the 2017 draft to get Trubisky. Jimmy and Dee have a combined $47M cap hit in 2021 and Watson only has $16M. They would incur an additional $31M? For a team already over the cap? Also, Jimmy is just not that good. The only alluring thing about him is that he costs only $3M, if he is cut, against the cap. Maybe they acquire him and then cut him? IDK. The only way a trade like this happens is if there are moves done prior or subsequently that shed a lot of other assets. I doubt this happens.
Miami Dolphins trade the #3 Overall Pick in 2021, the #35 Overall Pick in 2021, their 1st round pick in 2022, and Tua Tagovailoa for Deshaun Watson. You may look at this trade compared to the others and be confused. On the surface level, there are fewer things in this trade. Why would Houston accept this over the other trades? 2 words. Young Quarterback. Not only is he young but just 2 years ago teams were tanking for him (look forward to next Friday's article about tanking). This year, the 3rd overall pick is also a prime spot to trade back and acquire more draft capital because of the 4 top college QBs available and the number of teams that may be interested in taking them. Tua also only counts as $6M against the cap this year. All that being said, I doubt this happens.
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If there is a team that I think is most likely to pull off a trade it would be Miami because of the draft capital and Tua. But I also don't think Miami would be interested in that price. The new Dolphins regime has so far been about amassing talent all over the roster and Miami isn't solid all over the roster yet. We took a great leap this year, but are still missing players in our skill positions. Those picks are crucial towards closing the gap on teams like Buffalo and Kansas City.
Lots of words there to basically just say "I doubt this happens" three times. The thing is that trades like this have never happened before because teams don't trade young, elite, proven QBs.
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