Let's Talk About... the 2021 QB Carousel - 1/22/21
This isn't the first time I've written about QBs and it certainly won't be the last. They are the most important position in the NFL as they are the only player to touch the ball on every single play. But you all knew that. One thing you or I don't know is where some of these QBs are going to be playing next year.
Every year, there are all these QB rumors in the offseason (yet they never get traded). But something is going on this year where it feels like we may actually see some movement. I'm not sure if it is because the salary cap is going down, or if it has to do with NBA superstars getting out of situations they are unhappy with. Regardless of the reasoning, there has been a lot of rumors, whispers, and lies spread around the NFL. I'm gonna sift through it all and give you my opinion on who I think might be heading to a new city. Let's Talk About the 2021 QB Carousel.
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2021 QB Carousel
First up, the #1 "Free-Agent" on the market in 2021, Dak Prescott. Yes... somehow the Cowboys have allowed this to happen. Dak injured his ankle in 2020 playing on the franchise tag. And it wasn't just any old injury... it was one of those that you wince and feel gutted for the player when you see it.
The Cowboys started 1-3 under Dak, averaging 509 total yards and 408 passing yards per game (I'm not counting the game in which he got hurt). They finished 4-7, under 3 different QBs, averaging 319 total yards and 205 passing yards per game. 319 total yards would have ranked 30th in the NFL in 2020.
By no means am I saying that yards are now more important than wins. I am saying that they are less likely to win football games if they move the ball less effectively. And Dak was not only moving the ball effectively, but he was putting up points in 2020 when Zeke looked like a shell of himself. The Cowboys screwed up their cap situation when they decided to hand out huge contracts to Zeke and Jaylon Smith, thus making it harder to sign Dak. But he is a top 10 (or so) QB in the NFL. When you don't lock up your QB early, you either have to pay him more or let him walk free. And you don't let a top 10 QB walk free. Spotrac has a market value of $36+M a year, coming in just above Russell Wilson for 3rd highest contract in the NFL.
My Prediction: He has to stay with the Cowboys right? A 2nd franchise tag would cost just under $38M in a year where the cap is likely to shrink. The best possible outcome for both parties is a 5-6 year deal similar to how Mahomes' deal was structured (no dead cap in back half of the deal). Low cap hit the first year and opportunities for the Cowboys to cut bait later on. I would be shocked if the Cowboys allow him to go to a new team.
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Next up, another Free Agent QB... Mr Crabs (Legs), Jameis Winston. Let me lead with this, Jameis is not a good QB. He should not be a starter, he can't be fixed, we know what he is. I want to get those out of the way because what you are going to here this offseason is a coach that wants to sign him thinks that he can be fixed. You can't fix gunslinger out a QB.
All that being said, Jameis is a really interesting player in 2021. He had a year to sit behind Brees and learn from him and Payton. But in that situation, the Saints trusted what they had in Taysom more than what Jameis could do. They are obviously very different players. Neither can throw that accurately, but one of them thinks he is a fullback. Let me correct myself, Jamies does have the arm talent to be special, but he doesn't have the eyes, the mind, or the patience to be. Jameis, like most QBs, does great on early reads, but as things start to break down he makes way too many mistakes trying to make a play happen. A lot like Wentz did in 2020. I feel he actually would have decent success in New Orleans if they could strike a deal, but I am concerned about what the team will do this offseason.
The Saints, well uh... they are kinda screwed. $100M over the cap is frankly impressive. I don't even know how a team realistically does that, but here we are. Now the Brees retirement will help a little, but they will need to shed a few contracts. For that reason, I feel like they may just stick with Taysom for a year and try to rebuild with either a rookie QB this year or next.
My Prediction: Seeing that the Saints have no cap room, I think Jameis will look for a starting job elsewhere. The New England Patriots are losing Cam to Free Agency and it doesn't look like Stidham has too much going for him. The one thing Jameis won't get from Bill is a lot of $$$. A 1-year prove-it deal seems very much in Jameis' future. Who says no?
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The last true (unrestricted) Free Agent on our list is the best college QB from the 2016 season... Mitchell Trubisky. 😏 The poor guy is always going to be known for being the first QB taken and it wasn't even his fault he was chosen first among Mahomes and Watson. It amazes me that Ryan Pace still has his job. Anyways let's talk about Mitch. The only QBs that are ever allowed to go into Free Agency have some sort of a huge wart (unless you're Dak). Mitch doesn't throw it accurately on a consistent basis. He never has. Which was why I was so shocked he went before Watson. At least Watson was more trusting of his legs and truly knew how to carry his team to victory. UNC finished 8-4 in Mitch's last regular season with losses to Duke and NC State. Deshaun lost 3 starts in his college career, once to Alabama in the National Title, once in his freshman year in a game where he left and missed most of the game.
Hold on I need a minute with myself. "This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun. This is about Mitch, not Deshaun."
Alright back on topic! The thing that gets to me about Mitch is he reminds me of Tannehill a little bit. Neither work great as 'stick in the pocket and throw it all over the yard' players. They are at their best when they are on the move and have a strong run game to open up the play-action. Tannehill is more accurate than Mitch at every level, but the comparison is what I was going for. I wish that the Bears would have done more designed runs or read-option plays with him because Mitch is very athletic.
My Prediction: There is a less than zero chance Mitch is resigned in Chicago. Bears fans past, present, and future would burn down their team HQ. Depending on what happens with other backup QBs (Fitz, Brisset, Taylor), I think he will be able to find a #2 job somewhere around the league with multiple teams looking to experienced vets to fill that role. Similar to Cam, I think he will go to a team with a younger starting QB.
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Sam Darnold, Sam Darnold, Sam Darnold. Everyone since October has been trying to figure out where Sam Darnold would be traded. Once we all realized how bad the Jets were (didn't take too long) and assumed they would be getting one of the top college QBs, poor Sam was thrown into the nasty New York streets. Without spoiling my prediction, let me tell you what I think of Sam.
Sam Darnold had a rookie season that by all signs proved that he... was a rookie. I won't judge him too harshly for anything that happened that year. After that, they fired their defensive head coach and sought to get an offensive mastermind. Instead of doing that, they hired Adam Gase 😂. Poor poor Jets fans and poor Sam. I tried to warn you when it happened. Adam Gase is more of a QB ruiner than whisperer. He "coached" Peyton Manning for a season and has been mooching off his name since. Anyways, Sam again struggled because Adam's offense completely limits what you can do. It is all predicated on short passes and yards after the catch. Screens slants and passes short of the sticks. But Sam showed improvement at the end of year 2 and actually was 7-5 when he was the starter. But let's address that.
By no means, am I saying Sam is injury prone. However, he has missed a total of 10 games to injuries thus far in his career (multiple games each season). I attribute most of this to being sacked 98 times in 3 years (30+ sacks in each), but it is something to note. I know some people are saying Sam is broken and he needs some new scenery to be able to thrive. My opinion from when he was coming out was that I wasn't afraid of any one particular thing Sam could do. He didn't have one or two things that were amazing in college. That opinion hasn't changed.
My Prediction: Sam is the one player every single NFL fan and media member assumes will be traded, even above Watson. Except for me. I think he stays in New York because what team is going to say they NEED Sam Darnold and he is worth a 2nd round pick? If a team really wants to see what he is, they can wait a year once his contract is up and sign him without giving up picks.
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I won't go in-depth about Deshaun Watson, as I have already written a long article about him and his trade prospects. If you would like to read that, please check that out here. I think it might be the best article I have written so far.
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Matthew Stafford is the biggest name besides Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott on this list. Unfortunately for this former #1 Overall Pick, he has always been on the Lions. One of the most insignificant franchises in the NFL because of their inability to be anything but mediocre or terrible. The problem for the Lions is that Stafford always gets them enough wins to not be able to draft a top player, but never enough to get over the hump of a .500 win percentage.
I don't think Stafford is in my top 10 NFL QBs at the moment, but part of that is definitely a bias against his team. "But if Stafford is so good, why is he on this list? Why would Detroit not just keep him?" Well, I'm sure they would prefer to keep a great, homegrown QB. But Stafford is turning 33 years old before the next season starts. His prime years are or have dwindled away and he has never won a playoff game in 3 tries (12-year vet). I could see a team that thinks they are a QB away from competing for Super Bowls decide that Stafford would put them over the edge. I could also see Stafford asking for a trade because he wants to win.
Stafford has 2 full seasons left on his contract, but now may be the time to trade him if you are Detroit. There will be $25M in dead money that you will owe him the next 2 years, but the Lions won't be competing for championships any time soon. Getting the most from a Stafford trade now makes the most sense for Detroit's future.
My Prediction: I think any trade that Stafford would garner would have to at least start at a 1st round pick and possibly more depending on where that pick is. Reasonably, I think a 1st, 2nd and a player back would get it done (basing this off the Jay Cutler deal). Teams that may be in the sweepstakes? Denver and San Francisco are the two that jump out to me. All that being said, I don't believe Detroit would move him, even if they received a suitable offer. The Ford Family loves Stafford.
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Let's keep rolling with the Book of Matthew. Matt Ryan's name has been discussed as someone who may be moved this offseason. The Falcons look like they might be coming up on a full rebuild. They fired their HC and their GM. In his postseason press conference, the Falcons Owner Arthur Blank left the decisions of personnel up to the new HC and GM. He specifically talked about Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as franchise players who he would love to see return, but then noted the decision wasn't up to him.
Frankly, the appeal of Matt Ryan as a trade candidate is more hype of the name and past performance than anything else. Matt has 3 years left on his deal for $75M and he has no chance of getting cut. Matt is going to be 36 at the start of the season and I'm not sure how many years he has left in him.
My Prediction: This one is pretty easy for me. I don't see him being moved at all. Between what the Falcons would ask for in return and the money left on his deal, it just doesn't add up. He is a Falcons legend and he will either retire as one in the next 2 years or be unceremoniously released. Either way, expect the Falcons new regime to look to the draft, in 2021 or 2022, for a replacement.
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Here is one that I want to happen so bad. Outside of Deshaun getting out of Houston for his own sake, I want the 49ers to save themselves from Jimmy Garoppolo. Trade him, cut him, bench him... I don't care. Just don't have Jimmy as your starter. George Kittle deserves better. Deebo Samuel deserves better. Brandon Aiyuk deserves better.
Maybe it's because I don't like Pretty Boyz. Or maybe it has something to do with the fact that he is so inaccurate he gets his own players hurt. But I cannot stand the 49ers putting their hopes on his shoulders. He isn't good. All quarterbacks that succeed are system quarterbacks. But there is a difference between excelling in your system and your system hiding what you are not good at. Jimmy and a QB still to be talked about are the latter. FORESHADOWING!!!!
On top of Jimmy being #notgood, he also has recorded only 1 healthy season, while with the 49ers, out of 4. He has 2 years left on his deal and I truly have never seen a more well-structured QB contract. He is still owed over $50M, BUT has only a $3M dead cap hit if he is released. Meaning they can save $47M by cutting him today. Compare that to Matt Ryan that has $50M in dead cap if he was cut. Great business from John Lynch, although he did give him a premature contract. You win some you lose some.
My Prediction: John Lynch knows his offense is ready to roll when healthy. He will get Joey Bosa back next year and while they need to patch up CB and LT, I believe this team is a QB away from seriously contending next season. I think the 49ers will move on from Jimmy in some capacity. If they can pull off a trade for Watson or maybe Stafford and include Jimmy in the deal, they will jump at it. Otherwise, they will cut him and try to make a move up in the draft for Trey Lance.
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These last three I will mention altogether because they all have the same prediction. And I will spoil it ahead of time, but none of these players will be moved. I am certain of it.
Carson Wentz first. Former 'would be MVP if not for injury' Carson Wentz. Look, I won't deny it... Carson had a bad year in 2020. But for some reason, everyone seems to think he has had more than one bad season? Last year, he CARRIED the injury-decimated Eagles on his back to a playoff berth. The year before, he missed the front part of the season rehabbing his injury from the previous season. But he had one of his statistically better years despite his TEAM not doing as great in 2018. Shoot me if you've heard this one before (shoot me if you haven't either), but FOOTBALL IS A TEAM GAME! WINS ARE NOT A QUARTERBACK STAT! Foles goes and wins a Super Bowl with Wentz' team and the entire city then shuns Wentz because he doesn't have some metaphorical huge penis??? The Philly media market is terrible and got the best of Carson this year. My hope for him is that he can rebound with his new coach, who comes from a system that he is very comfortable in. Additional note, I feel a little bad for Jalen Hurts and, if Philly has some foresight, they might be able to trade him to a desperate team. The reason I say this is Carson has 3 years left on his deal. After next year, you might be able to cut him, but Carson is a good player. He just needs to be given another solid chance.
As previously mentioned, Big in the Nickers Foles moved on from Philly and went to a retirement home in Jacksonville. He injured himself playing shuffleboard and was traded to a much windier, colder, and meaner retirement home in Chicago. Upon arrival last offseason, he signed a new 3-year deal (meaning he has 2 years left with $12M remaining). However, if he is cut, the Bears will have a dead cap of over $14M. I'm not a cap wizard so I'm not sure how that works exactly, but there you go. I personally think it makes the decision kind of easy if you ask me, cut him and pay him more... or keep him as your starting QB and pay him less. Don't get me wrong. He is not a franchise QB, but he is better than whatever you could get on the free agent market for that price and he probably won't be the reason you lose games.
Saved the worst for last. Remember in the Jimmy G paragraph how I noted, that a QB to be named later was being hidden by his system. That they weren't good. That's Jared Goff. And if you thought any of the previously mentioned contracts were bad... let me show you something about how to screw up your franchise. In Goff's 3rd season, coming off the teams Super Bowl run in which Todd Gurley and wide-open receivers made Goff look like a hero (until he actually played a defense that knew how to pressure him), he signed a 4-year extension worth $134 MILLION SMACKEROONIS AND $110 MILLION GUARANTEED!!! Do you know what happens when you sign a bad QB to a deal that you have no chance of getting out of? Your Super Bowl window closes. It is one thing to sign Aaron Rodgers (good QB) to a deal of that size. Aaron Rodgers maximizes your chance of winning. Meanwhile, Sean McVay tries to shelter Goff from doing anything because Goff is a bum. The reason Goff is even mentioned in this article is that McVay said that Goff and he needed to go to couples therapy or something. But you cannot get out of this contract until at least the 2023 offseason. One last thing, you may go look up Goff's stats and say to yourself, "I don't see anything out of the ordinary". Look at 1 game of film on Goff. He gets any type of pressure and melts. Misses literal wide open WRs, and I've watched a lot of the misses having Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in fantasy. I just can't anymore with you Jared Goff. I feel bad for the Rams.
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Bonus Speed Round
I obviously didn't name every team that is likely going to be looking at acquiring a QB this offseason. I can name 4 QBs that will probably go in the top 10 and 2 other QBs that will be drafted in the late 1st or 2nd round. There will be heavy investment at this position in the draft. A few teams that I think could take a swing in the first 4 rounds of the draft are the following: Jags, Jets, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, Patriots, Bears, Steelers, Saints.
The Jaguars will be taking a QB (Trevor Lawrence) and have confirmed that in Urban Meyer's first press conference. I am 99% certain the Jets will draft one as well, if they stay at this pick. It comes down to Justin Fields or Zach Wilson for them. From this point on is where it gets dicey.
The Dolphins hold the #3 pick and won't be selecting a QB. But the Falcons may look to draft the future of the franchise at #4. Which makes the Dolphins pick the obvious place for someone to jump the Falcons to select a QB. Teams that might make that jump include Carolina, Denver, and San Francisco. I could also see Detroit looking to select a QB with this pick if they fall in love with a guy, but they are much further away from winning than the previous 3 teams mentioned and may wait a year or two.
Outside of the top 12, New England, Washington, Chicago, and Pittsburgh all have needs at getting a fresh face in their QB room regardless of what happens in FA. Keep an eye on them for Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, if Trey Lance slips, or to make a splash move to jump into the top 10. New Orleans is the only other team later on in the draft that needs to draft a QB. But there may not be good value at the end of the 1st. Therefore they may wait a round or two and select an athletic QB with the hopes of coaching him up, possibly Jaime Newman.
Other important names to watch this offseason. Big Ben is the last of that famous '04 QB class with Rivers and Brees both retiring this season. Ben is way over the hill and has been for a few years now and the Steelers are hoping he retires. His cap hit would be cut in half if he rides into the night. There are a few other notable unrestricted veteran QBs that will be at least serviceable as a backup, but we know they won't be franchise guys by now. Those would be Jacoby Brisset and Tyrod Taylor. Marcus Mariota could be cut for nothing if Vegas decides he is too expensive, but I imagine they will run it back. Taylor Heinecke from Washington is a RESTRICTED free agent meaning that the team still holds some control over him. Going in-depth about uncommon things like the difference of restricted vs unrestricted might be something I write about in the future. Let me know if you'd like to know about some of the little idiosyncrasies of the NFL.
I haven't read your Deshaun Wastton article yet but I would love to see him go to the Pats. Even though he said today his two choices are Jets and Dolphins... we shall see.
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