NFL Pre-Draft Breakdowns: Southern Divisions - 4/21/21
On to the Southern divisions for Episode 2 of our NFL Pre-Draft Breakdowns series but you already know that because of the title! I decided to go to the South first because you have the 1st, 4th, and 8th picks in this group, which are the highest picks vs the other divisions.
These divisions were specifically hard to find trends for because there are 4 new GMs and 3 new HCs in this group of 8 teams. So I tried to bring a mix of ideas for them. Let me know what you think of this series in the comments or on Twitter!
Important to note: The Panthers have not picked up Sam Darnold's 5th-year option yet even though there were many people, including Adam Schefter, saying they were/had.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 10Team Needs: QB, FS, iOL; Team Wants: OT, TE, EDGE, RB
I keep saying this and maybe I am alone, but the Jags are not in a bad place roster wise. We know they are getting the QB out of the way with Lawrence so I'll skip that. The offensive line is the one spot on offense where I really think they could use some depth and reinforcements. The production from the group hasn't been up to par especially with one of the top paid guards in the NFL among them. By the 2022 season, I will guess that there will be at least 3 new starters added because Norwell, Cann, and Robinson will be free agents. A tight end would be a really smart addition to this team but I don't think it will be a receiving type of TE. Meyer normally buries his TE in blocking duties and Trevor doesn't have much rapport with TEs from Clemson either. The only thing they are really missing on defense is an 'eagle eye in the sky' safety to patrol the deepest portions of the field.
Draft Trends: It is going to be very hard to find trends here that will correlate into this draft with a new GM and more importantly Urban Meyer as the visionary. I will touch on a little of what I expect the new regime will do and what the past regime did. The Jags have drafted over 30% of their players, since 2013, out of the SEC. The Jaguars have not taken a free safety and only 1 interior OL since 2015. They have only selected one senior in the 1st round since 2013. As far as "possible" trends under Urban, I expect they look at guys from Ohio St or people Urban offered at Ohio St, especially in the later rounds.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: Let's start at Pick 25 because we know Trevor is going at 1. If we are going based solely off of need positions, Trevon Moehrig makes a lot of sense as he is the best safety available. But something about it seems too easy. I feel like they could get him at 33. There will be at least one tackle and probably two EDGEs taken between 26 and 32, so the smart pick would lead me to one of those spots. However, I think one of the most important things for the Jags will be if Urban Meyer has coached them or wanted to coach them at Ohio St. Wyatt Davis at 33 or 45? Maybe they go off need and select LB Baron Browning in the 2nd? Notable players that got offered by Ohio St: Najee Harris, Trey Sermon, Jayson Oweh, Liam Eichenberg, Elijah Moore, Jackson Carman, Dyami Brown, Rondale Moore, Asante Samuel Jr.
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Houston Texans
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
Team Needs: OG, C, OT, WR, CB, TE; Team Wants: Slot WR, SS, OG, EDGE
The Texans were the single most active team in free agency in terms of players acquired. However, they were so devoid of talent that most of the players they signed were guys to come in and compete for roster spots. None were high-level signings outside of maybe Tyrod Taylor and that is just because he is a QB. They still have major offensive line issues especially from the center and to the right, but truthfully everyone besides Tunsil isn't good enough. The WR position is an injury waiting to happen. Cooks, Cobb, and Coutee seem to always be on the injury report and I won't be surprised when they go down. All of these players could look to be replaced. The defensive side is much better with them only needing a true piece added at CB. The box safety and EDGE group could be upgraded on, but there are much more pressing needs on offense.
Draft Trends: The Texans also got a new HC and GM so we can throw most draft trends out the window from the BOB regime. I will do some old trends still and try to come up with a possible idea for a new trend. The Texans drafted at least one OT in the first 4 rounds every year since 2017. A poor trend that I don't expect will continue is how the Texans did not value top draft picks, trading away multiple 1s and a 2 for Tunsil and a 1 and a 2 for Watson. 7 out of the 20 picks taken since 2018 have been from non-Power 5 schools. Nick Caserio comes in from the Patriots tree so I imagine he will value extra draft picks, drafting a lot of DBs, and getting developmental OL late in the draft.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: They only have 1 pick between the first 3 rounds. It would not be wise for them to trade up into the 2nd unless they are absolutely in love with someone because they need to use all these picks to bring in more competition. My only expectation for them is that they will be quiet. Make their one pick and be done. Day 3 is where they may make some noise.
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Indianapolis Colts
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
Team Needs: CB, EDGEx2, LT; Team Wants: WR, LB
The biggest priority for the Colts needs to be getting a left tackle for Wentz. Reich knows how much Carson has struggled with pressure in Philly and the rest of the OL is dynamite. The other needs all come on defense and it is more a need of a top-level talent rather than depth. Their corner crew has some investments but none are really paying off like Xavier Rhodes (who is over the hill) and Rock Ya-Sin (a former 2nd round pick). It sounds like their EDGE room may get a boost if they resign Justin Houston (reported possible, if not, likely to come), but they still need to add another top player. Freeney and Mathis aren't coming off that corner any time soon.
Draft Trends: The Colts generally have a trove of Draft picks with at least 8 in every season under Chris Ballard, except this year. We might expect a trade back in the 1st to accumulate more picks since Indy traded their 1st rounder in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Ballard has drafted at least 1 OG in each draft in Indy and at least 1 RB, WR, LB, EDGE, and S in 3 of the last 4 drafts. Speaking of LB, going back to his KC days, Ballard has drafted 10 LBs in the last 7 years and most of them had plus combine measurements and were very athletic. Indy likes prospects from USC and Ohio St, drafting 3 in the last 4 years. One thing that seems consistent with Ballard is looking for leadership, captaincy, and playing in the Senior Bowl.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I've been mocking the Colts a LT in the 1st round in almost every single version, but I am worried that they may trade back and miss the plug and play starters. I would expect them to trade back to accumulate more picks from one of these early picks. Ballard loves as many dart throws as possible. If they don't go LT in the 1st, I think EDGE is the smart bet given that it is a much more crucial need. 3 CBs could be off the board by then anyway. I would put money down that if they only have 2 selections in the first 3 rounds it will be an OT and an EDGE.
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Tennessee Titans
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
Team Needs: CB or NCB, TE, WR, RT, SS; Team Wants: EDGE, NT, RG
The top 2 selections in the 2020 Draft for TEN were a RT and a CB. That RT is out of the NFL and they cut their top 2 CBs so back to square one. In 2021, I would flip the priority. Fulton got some playing time in 2020, but they still need another body to take significant snaps either in the nickel or boundary with Janoris Jenkins. They also lost Corey Davis and Adam Humphries in FA and only replaced them with the Rams #4 WR from last year. I think they could get away with just adding a slot WR. The Titans lost Jonnu Smith in free agency as well, their 2-TE sets may not be as prevalent without OC Arthur Smith though. The defense could still use some gloss on the DL but the offense needs to take priority outside of CB.
Draft Trends: One thing you can say for certain is that Tennessee will walk away with at least one OL and DL in this draft. They have drafted 6 OL and 6 DL in the last 6 drafts. This is the first time since 2017 they will have more than 6 draft picks. Staying on the theme of six, 6 of their 17 Day 1 and 2 prospects have been from non-Power 5 conferences. Jon Robinson is one of the more aggressive draft day traders in the league. In 2018, he traded up in the 1st and the 2nd round to get his guys. In 2016, he traded back from #1 overall with the Rams and then traded back up to 8 to get Jack Conklin.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I am not sure whether I will slot a CB or a WR to the Titans in Round 1 but those are the only options. I think you can find either position on Day 2 though. It would be really tough to use another 1st round selection on a RT given the situation with Isaiah Wilson. However, I do think that OT will be addressed on Day 2 given the severity of the need. Given how aggressive Robinson can be and the number of picks at his disposal, I would not be surprised if he trades up in Round 1 to go and get someone like Devonta Smith or Caleb Farley if they start to fall.
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Atlanta Falcons
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
Team Needs: SS, FS, EDGEx2, LG, OLB; Team Wants: CB
If I could have Atlanta take only defensive players I would, starting with EDGE. Fowler should be better with a switch back to a 3-4, but the ATL is where all EDGEs go to die. They need something to change. Keep selecting them until it works. The Falcons lost both starting safeties in free agency and their secondary was already awful over the top. Both positions are heavy needs for them and should be prioritized as such. LB and CB could also use upgrades but unless they move back from 4, I don't expect they can get help at every need position.
Draft Trends: First time HC Arthur Smith meet First time GM Terry Fontenot. These trends are going to be very loose because they could be bringing over things from earlier in their careers or could create something new. Arthur Smith has liked playing in 12 Personnel which means 2 TEs on the field. I don't know if he liked that because of Derrick Henry but he is not in Tennessee anymore. Arthur also liked a run-first style to open up the play-action thus opening up the passing game. Matt Ryan is a much more competent drop back passer than Tannehill is. Fontenot comes from the Saints very aggressive style of drafting where no price is too much to move up for their guy. I think that might be something that we see in Atlanta because Smith is also used to that from TEN.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I have a gut feeling that the Falcons have a favorite QB among the 3 of Fields, Lance, and Jones. And I think if he was there at 4 they would have a really hard time passing on him. But ultimately I don't think they take the QB. Pitts is totally unnecessary for them but I don't think they will be able to move out unless it is a team wanting to move up for Sewell or Chase. ATL won't trade to CAR. MIA won't move to 4. I think they get stuck at 4 and take Pitts. As for the rest of the draft, everything needs to be a defensive player. I think I would prioritize the EDGE position as the Saints have in past drafts.
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Carolina Panthers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 7
Team Needs: LT, OG, Slot WR, FS; Team Wants: TE, OG
Offensive. Line. To the moon. I don't understand how that meme goes. Anyway, they need to add at least 2 OL in this draft and their LT should come in the 1st round. I am a little less worried about guard play with the way McCaffrey runs off-tackle a lot. Darnold had a very nice security blanket in Crowder in NY, but CAR just lost Samuel. McCaffrey could be that security blanket but I still think they need a slot WR. I think the TE spot is probably settled for this year when they signed Dan Arnold but honestly, he isn't a boost to the room receiving wise. Quickly to defense, after cutting Tre Boston the free safety spot is open and is the only starting spot that needs to be addressed.
Draft Trends: The first draft under Matt Rhule was a puzzling one. They had a top 10 selection and many needs on the team and chose not to trade back. They also selected all defensive players with their 7 picks. They have a new GM now so I am curious to see if this changes anything from 2020, but I think Rhule is the head decision-maker in terms of personnel. I believe that in part because Rhule took 2 players that he had previously known well from his college days. One from Baylor and one he offered to go to Temple. These were late-round selections so expect Rhule to tap into his college roots for info on later round guys. They did make a trade up into the 2nd round so there might be some tea leaves into an aggressive style. Besides the late-round selections, I don't know if we can draw any trends from a fairly new HC and a brand new GM.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: If their first round pick isn't an offensive tackle, I will be floored. I know there is buzz about them still taking a QB because of the 5th year option not being picked up yet. I just don't see how you trade a future 2nd for Sam and not keep him until that pick comes to fruition. It will be Slater or Sewell and I wouldn't be shocked if they moved up to 6 to secure Sewell if he is there. In the opposite of the trend they set in 2020, I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina goes almost all offense in this draft. They need to surround Darnold with as many building blocks as possible to truly see what they have in the guy. I wouldn't be surprised if Round 2 was where they addressed the slot WR because of their reliance on a guy like Samuel last year.
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New Orleans Saints
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
Team Needs: ILB, EDGE, CB, WR; Team Wants: TE, DT
Their offensive starting 11 is still amazing and needs virtually no help outside of another WR to help distract defenses from Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. They really need to go all-in on the defense. Starting jobs need to be filled in at CB opposite Lattimore, ILB because they honestly don't have any, and EDGE and DT could use more depth. The Saints have a very aggressive defensive line and lost a few key snap takers to free agency.
Draft Trends: This is the best (worst) trend I will write for any of the 32 teams. The Saints have not taken a 1st round QB in 50 STRAIGHT DRAFTS going back to 1971 and Archie Manning. Crazy. The Saints have made a trade up in every Draft since 2006 (Sean Payton was hired) except in 2012 when Payton was suspended. Alternatively, the Saints haven't traded down in the Draft since 2007. In Payton's career, he has selected an OL, DL, or DB with 11 out of his 16 first round picks. The Saints have only taken 4 WRs in the Draft since 2014, but 3 of them were taken on Day 1 or 2.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: I know I am coming way out of left field for this hot take but I think the Saints will probably trade up at some point. In all seriousness, I think the Saints would actually be wise to NOT trade up in this draft. The Saints have a lot of talent in key positions, but they need depth. They only have 60 players under contract right now (and can get up to 90 by training camp) but they don't have much cap room. If you trade up, the more you have to pay the rookie (pay is based on the draft position with the rookie wage scale). The only exception I would give would be if the Saints move up for a QB. In the first round, I think they could have fun with the WRs, but EDGE or DB has to be the play given their history and need. On Day 2, it is a bit of a crapshoot for me. I expect they will take a WR with one of these picks but beyond that, they need depth everywhere and nothing would surprise me.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
6th Round: 217 (33 comp)
Team Needs: Backup QB, KR; Team Wants: FS, C, CB, OT
Define "need". This roster is nearly perfect in terms of how starting lineups go. Very few places could use an upgrade and no positions NEED to be filled. I have backup QB (Ryan Griffin is not moving the needle Bucs fans) and kick returner but that is really nitpicking. Antonio Brown is not yet resigned but Scotty Miller can do his job and a rookie could come in and compete for that too. Corner is the one position I would say is lacking truly elite talent. There is a collection of quality players here, but imagine if they had a shutdown guy like how Carlton Davis was for a few weeks last year. Something under the radar was that the Bucs lost their "heavy" set OT (6th tackle that comes in on max protection/goal line) to FA this year. I could see this being a priority for the later rounds.
Draft Trends: The Bucs have a very serious trend of taking guys from 4 specific conferences on Day 1 and 2 since 2014. The Big 10, ACC, SEC, and PAC-12. There has been 1 Big 12, 1 MAC, 1 Ohio Valley, 1 Division II, and 1 Division III player. 20 out of the 25 selections from those top 4 conferences. There are a few positional trends by school as well. In the last two drafts, they have selected a lineman (offense and defense) from Iowa. They have selected two LSU LBs since 2017 and two Auburn CBs since 2018. In 3 out of the last 4 drafts, they have selected a RB and I believe they had heavy interest in Javonte Williams prior to the Bernard addition.
Day 1 and Day 2 Expectations: My Day 1 expectation is I have no expectation. They could trade up/down. They could pick offense or defense. I literally have no clue. For both of the days, I really think they will come out of it with at least 1 WR with Brown unsigned and Godwin just on the tag. Addressing corner and offensive line also make a ton of sense. Anything to prolong Brady's career will be high on the priority list.
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Which team will make the biggest splash in the Draft out of these teams? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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