Mock Draft 7.0 - FINAL MOCK + Final Big Board!!! - 4/28/21
We made it. There is a sense of relief for me knowing that we are here but it also feels like a goodbye which I am terrible with. Enough with the sappiness though. As an FYI, THIS MOCK IS PREDICTIVE. It isn't always the pick I would make but rather what I think could/will happen and also is set up in a way to get the most possible points in mock draft competitions. The scoring for these competitions is simple. 1 point for selecting a player correctly in the 1st round. An extra point for slotting the player and the team correctly. Ex: If I put Zach Wilson at #1 to the Jags, I would only get 1 point because they are going to take Trevor.
I normally am not very promotional. I don't normally care about a lot of people seeing my stuff, I do this because I enjoy it 99% of the time. However, the Draft is a very important time of year for me. I'm not sure why but I put a lot of time and effort in every year. Basically, this is a longwinded way to say if you enjoyed this mock, or any of the previous content I have put out, I would really appreciate it if you shared this article. A retweet, a like, sharing it with a friend or co-worker, whatever you can give it, I thank you for. If you don't like it, you shouldn't feel inclined to put your name on it. But I would appreciate anything you can give it.
I would love to see your mock drafts or any predictions you have. Send your mock to me on Twitter or text me your favorite prediction for your team. If you don't know about all the players/team needs but still would be interested in doing a mock draft, you should check out the Draft Network Mock Draft Machine. It's really easy and pretty fun. Additionally, if you want to join a mock draft competition for a little bit of extra fun (and money), contact me and I can get you into one.
Finally, thank you for reading any, all, or even one of my articles along this journey since January. This is the longest intro ever so let's get on with it.
Previous Mocks:
Version 1.0 (no trades)
Version 2.0 (no trades)
Version 3.0 (with trades)
Version 4.0 (2 rounds with trades)
Version 5.0 (2 rounds with trades with Sam Teets)
Version 6.0 (Predictive)
_______________________________________________________________
Big Board 3.0
I wanted to also include this updated big board going into the draft. No explanations on this one. If you would like to know what I think about these prospects check out my 2.0 version here.
- Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
- Kyle Pitts, TE Florida
- Ja'Marr Chase, WR Lousiana St
- Zach Wilson, QB Brigham Young
- Micah Parsons, LB Penn St
- Penei Sewell, OT Oregon
- Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama
- Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama
- Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern
- Devonta Smith, WR Alabama
- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami
- Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech
- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG Southern California
- Justin Fields, QB Ohio St
- Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St
- Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina
- Najee Harris, RB Alabama
- Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan
- Trevon Moehrig, FS Texas Christian
- Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina
- Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech
- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami
- Tevin Jenkins, OT Oklahoma St
- Travis Etienne, Clemson
- Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame
- Landon Dickerson, iOL Alabama
- Elijah Moore, WR Ole Miss
- Creed Humphrey, iOL Oklahoma
- Jamin Davis, LB Kentucky
- Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern
- Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa
- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia
- Levi Onwuzurike, DT Washington
- Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota St
- Christian Barmore, DT Alabama
- Nick Bolton, LB Missouri
- Mac Jones, QB Alabama
- Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas
- Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn St
- Elijah Molden, NCB Washington
- Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
- Carlos Basham Jr, EDGE Wake Forest
- Baron Browning, LB Ohio St
- Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington
- Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame
- Jevon Holland, S Oregon
- Eric Stokes, CB Georgia
- Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida St
- Terrace Marshall Jr, WR Lousiana St
_______________________________________________________________
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Pick from the last mock: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Team Needs: QB, FS, iOL; Team Wants: OT, TE, EDGE, RB
2. NEW YORK JETS: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Pick from the last mock: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Team Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, CB, NCB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB, C, CB
Zach is going to light the world on fire if he is allowed to succeed, which is not something the Jets have provided in the past. I think the Shanahan system that he will get from Mike Lafleur will help him shine, using his natural athleticism and crazy arm angles to win the day. Gang Green can finally let go of their collective breath once he is drafted.
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (from HOU via MIA): QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: QB Justin Fields, Ohio St
Team Needs: CB; Team Wants: Starting QB, CB, RG, EDGE
PREDICTIVE! That's right I will sell out for an extra point in my mock draft. It sounds like it is down to Lance or Jones and while I love the idea of Lance in SF, I am certain that Mac is the pick. They moved up with him in mind and asked the other QBs to beat him out. They didn't. Mac is the type of QB that Shanahan is comfortable with and didn't want to play outside the box. Mac will be fine, but the potential with Lance in this system far outweighs that of Mac.
4. ATLANTA FALCONS: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Pick from the last mock: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Team Needs: SS, FS, EDGEx2, LG, OLB; Team Wants: CB
I think Justin Fields is the one QB Atlanta would consider here. It sounds like the Owner wants them to go QB. I just don't think they will take the risk at the end of the day, especially with the Julio trade rumors swirling. Pitts can be their next Julio. Pitts looks like Calvin Johnson to me and I know I shouldn't make comps to HOFers... I just can't unsee the box-outs, the speed, the oven mitts. It is glorious.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Pick from the last mock: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, OGx2, C; Team Wants: ILB, TE, CB
Not what I would do but I think Joe Burrow is really pulling the organization towards Chase. The idea is fantastic to pair those two back together after one of the greatest QB-WR seasons in the history of college football back in 2019. It just doesn't help Burrow from tearing his ACL again.
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS (from PHI): WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
Early on in the process, I was so sure Devonta Smith was going to Miami at 3. But honestly, Waddle was the WR1 on Bama's offense prior to his injury. He had fewer catches but more yards than Smith. Waddle stretches the field and puts safeties in conflict. That will allow Tua to take the easy options with Parker, Geisicki, or Fuller underneath. It will also open up the run game.
7. DETROIT LIONS: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Pick from the last mock: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
Team Needs: WR, RT, LG, ILB, OLB, CB; Team Wants: FS, SS, NCB
This feels like a perfect storm. In a normal draft, a talent like Sewell wouldn't get out of the top 3, but Detroit is happy to take a bonafide stud at tackle. He will most likely slot in on the right side with Taylor Decker operating on the left. Sewell hasn't taken a right tackle snap since his high school days but has been training to work on the right side in preparation for the draft if that is what a team wants.
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Pick from the last mock: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Team Needs: LT, OG, Slot WR, FS; Team Wants: TE, OG
There is a lot of smoke about the Panthers still going QB. I think the Panthers are trying to drum up interest for their pick or get a team to move up and push another player down. Addressing the tackle position is too important for them to pass up especially with Slater available to them. The real surprise here would be if they pass on the tackle and go for the first CB.
9. DENVER BRONCOS: QB Justin Fields, Ohio St
Pick from the last mock: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota St
Team Needs: QB, ILB; Team Wants: ILB, RT, CB, RB
Fields is the guy if he falls to 9 because he seems like an Elway type of QB. Ultra-competitive. Huge chip on his shoulder. Athleticism. Baseball background. I don't know if Denver would pick Lance if he was the only QB available. The caveat here is I am almost certain that they will not move up for a QB. The SF-MIA trade ruined the trade market for other teams.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Team Needs: CB, OT; Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, EDGE, SS, FS
Feels like I have been running with this for a while but I am not sure how it can be any other player. I don't even think it could be Horn because of the Alabama connection that Dallas has. Surtain is one of the safest players in this class but is also one of the best corners in man coverage (press or mirror).
11. NEW YORK GIANTS: LB Micah Parsons, Penn St
Pick from the last mock: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Team Needs: EDGEx2, LB; Team Wants: iOLx2, RT, DT
This is really where the fun begins. Here is what I have read/heard. Judge (HC) loves Devonta Smith. Their scouts love Jaycee Horn. But Gettleman loves Parsons. Who wins out? At the end of the day, I say Parsons because Gettleman seems to get his way a lot. There is also a Penn St connection here with Saquon being taken a few years ago, so they should be comfortable with the character question marks.
12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (from SF via MIA): CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Pick from the last mock: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Team Needs: WRx2, LBx2; Team Wants: C, G, QB, CB, EDGE
Devonta Smith still available. Philly don't care. The drop-off from these top 4 corners seems pretty steep to me and Horn is the last truly safe guy among those 4 because of the Farley and Newsome medicals. Fans might be confused by the pick but it sounds like the Eagles are much more enamored with Waddle than Smith.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Pick from the last mock: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: LT, OG, EDGE; Team Wants: CB, WR
If Horn gets to 13, I believe he will be the pick but the medicals on Farley are too questionable for a gamble at 13. Darrisaw has been consistently mocked this high for me but national people seem to think he could be in the 17-24 range. Given the need, and propensity to select for need in LA, I don't think this will be a hard decision given AVT's arm length likely makes him a guard.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Pick from the last mock: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Team Needs: EDGE, FS, LT, iOL; Team Wants: WR/TE, QB?
I really think this could be the year for them to take a DL in the 1st round, but there is serious smoke about Alijah to Minny. I also have a sneaky suspicion the Vikings will trade back, which is another reason why I am OK with slotting a guard to them (WSH is the only team that I could see take him in the teens.). It is incredibly hard for me to find a really good player-team fit I like but this is one. A plug and play starter.
15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota St
Pick from the last mock: LB Micah Parsons, Penn St
Team Needs: WRx2; Team Wants: QB, LB
I would say something crazy like "The Patriots aren't trading up and I am so confident I will give everyone who reads this $10 if I am wrong", but honestly I don't have the cajones. That being said, I am slotting them Lance because I don't know where he is going to be drafted and I don't know who the Patriots are going to draft. It could work out like my 'Jordan Love to the Packers' guess I had last year, but honestly, I just don't know.
That being said, I really love Lance and think he would be a great fit with a ton of teams, including New England. He ran a pro-style offense in college but also has insane athleticism. He is very smart and sounds like a natural leader from when I have heard him speak.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Team Needs: SS, OG, TE; Team Wants: CB, WR, OG
The fall finally stops. Sidebar: I am actually really sad because I see a lot of people making this pick and I had this idea prior to seeing so many others have it. I thought I was unique. 😢
Devonta is going to succeed in this league. He just won't be the WR1 that a top 10 pick is expected to be. Smith will have trouble getting off press-man coverage against 210 lb corners that can run with him. FYI there are a good amount of corners like that in the NFL. Not so much in college. But in a wide-open offense like AZ, he will be able to get free releases more often and make defenses (and 15 other teams) pay.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: OT Tevin Jenkins, Oklahoma St
Pick from the last mock: OT Tevin Jenkins, Oklahoma St
Team Needs: CB, FS, RT; Team Wants: WR, OLB, NCB, DT
I haven't the slightest clue what to do with the Raiders. I am hearing LB. I am hearing CB. I am seeing the need at tackle. I am reading breadcrumbs about DT. They are just a wildcard and I have accepted it. I have given them Tevin Jenkins who will fit the bully criteria they have for their OL. I am firmly accepting this will not be correct and I am OK with it.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Pick from the last mock: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
Miami did a lot of remodeling to the front 7 on defense. They are still in the construction phase, especially at EDGE. The heavy smoke in 2020 was the Dolphins would go OT with their 2nd pick. The heavy smoke in 2021 is leaning EDGE. Based on the non-stop Dolphins coverage I am paying attention to, it seems like they are really intrigued by Paye, Ojulari, and Ossai. Paye will be a 4-3 EDGE, 3-4 end for them.
19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Pick from the last mock: OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Team Needs: LB, LT; Team Wants: EDGE, FS, iOL
Recent reports out of Washington are all about the LBs in this class and how they feel OK with the group they have at OT. I don't know about the truth of the 2nd comment but I have heard the LB thing from multiple people. Jamin Davis is one name that popped up a couple of times but I find it hard to believe they would pass on JOK for Davis since JOK can also play at safety.
20. CHICAGO BEARS: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Pick from the last mock: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Team Needs: WRx2, RT, SS; Team Wants: DT, QB, RG, CB
Bateman is a seriously underrated player and it is weird how many people are sleeping on him as the #4 WR. He had a COVID issue in 2020 and clearly wasn't the same as in 2019. My only worry with him in Chicago is if they continue their downward spiral at QB. Dalton could be considered an upgrade over what they had last year though.
21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Pick from the last mock: OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas
Team Needs: CB, EDGEx2, LT; Team Wants: WR, LB
Similar to Minnesota, OL or EDGE but a trade down is more likely than anything. The Colts don't have their normal stack of picks and I don't think there is a player available here that would keep them from moving down. If they do move down, I think about guys with medical questions like Farley, Newsome, and Phillips and guys like Cosmi and Eichenberg at tackle. Phillips is the pick here because if they stay in the 1st round they should be able to get a tackle in the 2nd when the EDGE class falls off a cliff.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Pick from the last mock: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: CB or NCB, TE, WR, RT, SS; Team Wants: EDGE, NT, RG
In 2019, the Titans stopped the fall of DT Jeffrey Simmons after he was coming off an ACL injury and had some off the field trouble. The medicals are far murkier on Farley given how the NFL has altered the pre-draft medical info gathering due to COVID. Additionally, his injuries concern his back as well as an ACL tear in 2017. However, the talent is what keeps him in the 1st round. The gamble paid off on Simmons.
23. NEW YORK JETS (from SEA): EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Pick from the last mock: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Team Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, CB, NCB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB, C, CB
Saleh loves his defensive line and especially loves adding blue-chip talents to it via the draft. Rousseau isn't without his questions but most of it has to do with "can he do it again?" His 19.5 TFL and 15.5 sacks in his sophomore year show the production and there isn't a medical concern. Greg has all the talent in the world, he just needs a guy like Saleh to bring it out of him. An interesting measurable comp? EDGE Dee Ford, San Francisco
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, C, LG, NCB, CB, LT; Team Wants: QB, EDGE
All I can say here is "oof". Najee is a perfect back for the Steelers offense. Tough, athletic, downhill runner. But the OL needs serious help. It sounds like the only other options for them are RT Jenkins (who is gone) and iOL Dickerson who has medical concerns. Sidebar: I just watched the "Hey Rookie" show on ESPN which featured Justin Fields (among others). There are quite a few clips in there where Mike Tomlin is visibly ogling over Justin. If he falls out of the top 10...
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from LAR): EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn St
Pick from the last mock: OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
Team Needs: QB, FS, DT, iOL; Team Wants: OT, TE, EDGE, RB
In the last mock, I projected Eichenberg to Jacksonville wholly on the fact that Urban recruited him to go to Ohio St. Jayson Oweh was also recruited to go to Ohio St. Oweh is also an athletic freak on the EDGE and fits the profile of the Bosa's/Young/etc that Ohio St has treasured recently. Urban likes that type of guy. Also, GM Baalke came from SF where they select EDGE in the 1st round. Book it.
26. CLEVELAND BROWNS: DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
Pick from the last mock: EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn St
Team Needs: EDGE, DT, OLB, ILB; Team Wants: WR
I am not 100% that Barmore will be the pick to Cleveland because I think they really like this LB, EDGE, and CB class and if the right guy falls... That being said, the release of DT Richardson last week and the signing of EDGE Clowney opens up a real big gap at DT. They also let DT Larry Ogunjobi go to FA this year, so they lost their best 2 DTs that also happened to be solid pass rushers. Barmore is a solid pass rusher.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS: WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss
Pick from the last mock: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Team Needs: RT, WR, EDGE; Team Wants: FS, C
With the Ravens acquiring a second 1st round pick, my immediate thought is they look at WR with the first selection and possibly trade up to secure a guy. (The next 3 teams could all take a WR.) Moore makes a lot of sense to me as a smaller and shifty guy that Baltimore has trended towards the last few years. However, Moore wins very differently than Marquise Brown does. Moore is a technician from the slot and will create opportunities for easy 1st downs.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Pick from the last mock: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Team Needs: ILB, EDGE, CB, WR; Team Wants: TE, DT
I have a hard time believing that Newsome would still be available at 28 but he also hasn't made it through a full season at Northwestern because of injuries in each season. All that said, he had 25 passes defensed in 21 college games. The breadcrumbs seem to point to a corner here for New Orleans. Losing Jenkins in the secondary was the 2nd biggest loss this offseason next to Drew Brees retiring.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS: LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky
Pick from the last mock: CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
Team Needs: WR, C, ILB, CB; Team Wants: RT, NCB, DT
I have no earthly idea what Green Bay is doing but I do hear enough buzz that Jamin is going to go in the 1st round to feel semi-confident about this pick. Think about it. Every year teams look at the Super Bowl winners and say what do they have that we don't. No one else has Lavonte David and Devin White. In fact, Green Bay doesn't even have a Lavonte White or a Devin David. (There's my quota for 1 bad joke. You're welcome Jones.) Davis is your modern athletic LB that is fluid in pass coverage but he also flys to ball carriers. I love him.
30. BUFFALO BILLS: CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
Pick from the last mock: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Team Needs: NCB; Team Wants: CB, EDGE
Every single mock has Etienne to the Bills which makes me feel like I am making a massive mistake. I just don't see many other teams taking a swing at Travis so I am partially playing the game and trying to get a point for my mock. Sue me. I do think there is something here with Stokes though. The 2nd corner spot has been a pain in the side of Bills Mafia for a few years and the nickel is vacant this year. Stokes, Samuel, or Campbell could all be viable options for them.
31. BALTIMORE RAVENS (from KC): EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Team Needs: RT, WR, EDGE; Team Wants: FS, C
Peter King has smart intel that teams are concerned about Ojulari's knees and that it could drop him out of the 1st round. That makes me wary especially with Baltimore possibly trading out of 31 to get more picks. However, this has been one of my favorite player-team fits and they need EDGE help so terribly bad. Baltimore is very picky about who gets a medical pass from them and given the lack of information... I'm not sure but I still feel like he will go in the 1st.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: FS Trevon Moehrig, TCU
Pick from the last mock: WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss
Team Needs: Backup QB, KR; Team Wants: FS, C, CB, OT
Best player available. He beat out Javonte Williams by 1 on my board and that could also be the predicament in real life with the Bucs supposedly interested in Javonte. Moehrig makes a lot of sense for the Bucs though. A secondary that is good, not elite will get better at the free safety spot but also the nickel where Moehrig can play in a pinch.
Comments
Post a Comment