Mock Draft 3.0 WITH TRADES + Franchise Update - 3/10/21
I promised more mocks. Here is another mock. I wanted to get one in with trades prior to Free Agency to whet my appetite and try to brainstorm ideas for teams that may want to move up or down the board for certain players. Also, I didn't include previous mock draft selections in this because trading makes it much more difficult to compare apples to apples. I hope you enjoy this iteration.
Note: I will be including any cap casualties, as a prologue, to Friday's article which will be a full Preview for Free Agency. So look forward to that.
Previous Mocks:
Version 1.0
Version 2.0
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Franchise Tags
I just wanted to give a quick update on these because there will be a lot of signings, cuts, and trades between now and the next Monday Minute.
The deadline for Franchise Tags was Tuesday. I wrote an article about who I expected to be tagged. So check that out but long story short there were 2 "surprise" tag players and I nailed them (sorta) and I only missed on 2 high chance teams (AZ doesn't count because of Watt signing), Golladay in Detroit and Giants not tagging anyone.
Carolina Panthers - OT Taylor Moton $13.9M. I discussed this in my article from Monday.
Chicago Bears - WR Allen Robinson $17.8M. This is higher than the WR expected tag number because he made more than the average tag number in 2020, so his contract will be 120% of that 2020 number he made. ARob isn't happy and may be traded in the coming months.
Dallas Cowboys - QB Dak Prescott. This is a formality and he won't be paid any money from this tag. I will discuss his extension on Monday.
Denver Broncos - FS Justin Simmons $13.7M. On the 2nd tag and I already discussed this in my article from Monday.
Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Cam Robinson $13.9M. This was a shock to a lot of people and while my article did say 'No one', I also said I was going back and forth on him specifically. I'm giving myself a half-point for this. Robinson isn't great but he is not a rookie tackle to protect Trevor Lawrence.
New Orleans Saints - FS Marcus Williams $10.5M. The other "shock" but I pegged it. I gave it a low chance because the Saints cap situation is still shit but they can't afford to let a talent like Marcus go away for free. Maybe they did this to try to trade him away but I think he is too important to the defense.
New York Giants - DL Leonard Williams $19M. This will be his 2nd tag in as many years. He was the most important player on their defense in 2020. Last year, he filed a grievance to be paid as a DE for the tag, but that is not going to be an issue this year as he just makes 120% of what he made last year.
New York Jets - S Marcus Maye $10.5M. Maye is a player the Jets deemed too good to lose and they are right. He is honestly too good for the rest of the team and I doubt he would have resigned. The Jets will work on a long-term deal nonetheless, but I expect he will wait until 2021 to get a big payday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Chris Godwin $16M. The Bucs needed to lock Godwin in as Bradys #2 weapon. Surrounding Brady with as much talent as possible will lead them back to the promised land. I think both sides will work out a long-term deal as Brady has said to be keen on an extension (lower cap hit this year means more extensions for others).
Washington Football Team - OG Brandon Scherff $18M. Because this is his 2nd tag in a row he is being paid $4M more than the next highest guard Zack Martin in 2021. I'm giving myself a second half-point for this one as I talked about him as the option if they decided to use the tag. Scherff is abusing this front office like Kirk Cousins did a few years ago.
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MOCK DRAFT 3.0
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Team Needs: QB, SS, WR; Team Wants: iOL, TE, EDGE, RB
2. NEW YORK JETS: QB Justin Fields, Ohio St
Team Needs: RT, iOL, EDGE, CBx2, Nickel CB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB
This is gonna be the only time you will see me picking Fields to the Jets unless there is significant noise right before the draft. That isn't to say there aren't reasons that Fields could be selected here. Fields has shown growth over the last 2 years and that he isn't afraid of the big moment. Fields is 1-1 against Trevor Lawrence in his career but Fields played better than Trevor in both games.
3. MIAMI DOLPHINS (from HOU): TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
Ok ok, hear me out. Current TEs Mike Geisicki and Durham Smythe are entering the final year on their rookie deals in 2021. Geisicki's style is similar to Pitts but Pitts has so much more to offer. Kyle proved against top SEC corners that he can separate off the line of scrimmage. He proved that he can win over the top with 50/50 balls. He proved that he can outrun secondary players if he catches it underneath. He isn't known for his blocking skills but he is tenacious when he is asked. Do I think this is likely? No, not really, but it isn't as farfetched as I first thought.
TRADE! 4. DENVER BRONCOS: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Trade Details: DEN trades Pick 9, Pick 40 and their 2022 1st Round Pick to ATL for Pick 4 and Pick 152 (5th Round).
Team Needs: QB, ILB; Team Wants: ILB, RT, CB
Denver has been searching for their next franchise QB for years and it isn't for a lack of trying. Their latest attempt was in the 2019 2nd Round with Drew Lock out of Missouri. Lock hasn't played a full 2 seasons but they didn't imagine Wilson would make it to Pick 4 and they needed to make the jump. Denver does have some needs to fill, but they have a good chunk of money to work with in FA and can make a real strong run at a wild card spot with a difference-maker at QB.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, OGx2, C, LT or RT; Team Wants: ILB, TE
I will do a mock where Penei doesn't go to the Bengals... I swear... maybe. It comes down to Chase or Sewell for every one of their mocks. The Bengals never trade down and with the way the talent in this class is stacked... it's just almost assuredly going to be Penei.
6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Team Needs: WRx2, CB, LB; Team Wants: Backup TE, C, G, QB
We got some word on the Eagles QB situation this week. The Eagles owner, Jeffrey Lurie, has told his team that he wants to build around their current QB Jalen Hurts. Now I wouldn't put anything past GM Roseman, but this seems pretty clear to me. Hurts will be given the 2021 QB job. Time to build up around him.
TRADE! 7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota St
Trade Details: SF trades Pick 12 and Pick 43 to DET for Pick 7 and Pick 88 (3rd round from LAR-Stafford trade).
Team Needs: G, CBx2, FS; Team Wants: Starting QB, RB, DT
John Lynch has proven he has the cajones to make the splash move. A move like this gives them their QB of the future but it also allows them to move on from Jimmy G either this year or next. That will free up over $23M depending on what year they decide to cut him. They also could trade him but keeping him for a single season to allow Trey to warm up to the NFL level may be the wisest choice.
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Team Needs: QB, LT, OG, Slot WR, OLB; Team Wants: CB, TE, DT, OG
Poor Panthers lol. I just like picking on them I guess. This may mean they are the clubhouse leaders for Deshaun Watson as the Jets, 49ers and Denver are all out of that sweepstakes and the Dolphins don't have the 1st round picks to be able to offer anymore. If the Panthers strike out at QB then they need to try to address their OL. They only have their starting center and RT returning. Slater can fill out either guard role or slot in at left tackle.
9. ATLANTA FALCONS: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Trade Details: DEN trades Pick 9, Pick 40 and their 2022 1st Round Pick to ATL for Pick 4 and Pick 152 (5th Round).
Team Needs: RB, SS, FS, EDGEx2, C; Team Wants: CB, LB, FS, LG
The Falcons just need to draft a single defensive player and have them be good. That is the entire exercise for this draft. All they need is one. Kidding of course, but I feel a lot worse about their defense than I do their offense. At Pick 4, you don't want to be selecting a defensive player so they are happy to move back and pick up a 2nd and 1st rounder next year (in case they need to get a new QB). Surtain is a safer CB prospect than Farley in my estimation. Teams may be more comfortable with him given he played in 2020 and has been a corner for longer than Farley.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: CB, FS; Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, EDGE, SS, OT
I love the Cowboys options at the 10th pick. They will get either a top 2 OT or a top 2 CB. Farley could be the best defensive player in this draft but he isn't without his own question marks. However, Dallas' defensive woes in 2020 should have them grovelling for any player that has Farley's potential on a rookie contract. Losing Byron Jones last year was big but now they are going to be losing Chidobe Awuzie this offseason as well.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Team Needs: RT, EDGE, LB; Team Wants: LG, Backup RB, Backup QB
Here is that rare scenario in which Waddle or Pitts ends up with the Giants. A trade up from outside the top 10 to get a QB ahead of another QB needy team. Waddle isn't the exact type of WR I think this offense should be searching for. In my opinion, Bateman fits their team a lot better. But Waddle does have rare speed to be able to stretch any defense and allow Shephard, Engram, and Slayton to work underneath. The threat of him should also allow Saquon to work back into the fold nicely.
12. DETROIT LIONS: LB Micah Parsons, Penn St
Trade Details: SF trades Pick 12 and Pick 43 to DET for Pick 7 and Pick 88 (3rd round from LAR-Stafford trade).
Team Needs: WRx2, RT, DT, OLB; Team Wants: CB, FS, SS, ILB, RG
The signing of Tyrell Williams reduces the need at WR but without Kenny Golladay they still need obvious help here. If for some reason they don't select a WR... Parsons is the best player on my board and my best defensive player in the class. His addition will help usher in a physical defense at all levels of the field.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: OT/OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Team Needs: LT, RG, EDGE; Team Wants: OLB, CB, WR, Special Teams Overhaul
OL every time? Yea probably. Honestly, their first 3 selections may all be in that location according to their team needs. Hopefully, they can fill in some gaps prior to the draft, but the great part about AVT is his versatility. I have quite a bit of a drop-off, in terms of talent, on my board after Alijah.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: EDGE Greg Rousseau, Miami
Team Needs: iOLx2, EDGE, FS, LT; Team Wants: RT, iOL
I don't feel good about this selection even though it is obvious. Minnesota might be a team looking to trade back because their needs and wants aren't as plentiful in the top part of this draft class. So I have them selecting my new #1 EDGE player in this class. Rousseau is raw and young but has potential that hasn't even begun to rear its head yet. He will be viewed as one of the biggest question marks going into the draft, but if you can coach him and he receives it, he may also reap the biggest reward.
TRADE! 15. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Trade Details: WFT trades Pick 19 and Pick 74 (3rd round from SF-Trent Williams trade) to NE for Pick 15 and Pick 144 (4th Rd Comp pick).
Team Needs: LB, LT; Team Wants: WR, EDGE, FS
Mac Jones is going to be more talked about than Justin Fields by the end of this draft cycle and that just isn't fair. Mac does not have the mobility that these other QBs have. If it was 20 years ago, Mac would be the perfect QB prospect but because of the way offenses work now he isn't the prototype athletically. The thing that Mac does offer is a very intelligent sense of the game and Ron Rivera will covet a player like that as he had one on his defense in Carolina with Kuechley. Trading only a 3rd and receiving a late 4th back to get a guy the franchise can firmly place their trust in works for me.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, CBx2; Team Wants: TE, NCB, SS, ILB
I want to go off the beaten path with this selection because while it is something I would not do in the top half of the first round, the Cardinals certainly are viewing themselves as a team close to contending for Super Bowls. If that is the case, they may just take the KC Chiefs approach and keep giving the offense playmakers until there are too many good options. Kenyan Drake is a free agent and while the team has said they believe Chase Edmonds can carry the load, I don't believe them when they say it. I believe Chase could, but they had plenty of opportunities to prove that in 2020 as Kenyan didn't perform well.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
Team Needs: LB, CBx2, FS, RT; Team Wants: QB, WR
Believe it or not, I think Devonta could fall even farther than this. However, in this scenario, the Raiders don't pass up on a premier player from the same WR core they selected from last season. Henry Ruggs and Brian Edwards are the top 2 WRs for the Raiders today. Devonta is much more refined than these two and they will form a very underrated trio of young players for Derek Carr. The defense has much bigger question marks and they will likely go there but Devonta being available this late will raise some eyebrows.
TRADE! 18. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Trade Details: PIT trades Pick 24 and Pick 87 (3rd rounder) to MIA for Pick 18.
Team Needs: RB, C, RT, NCB, CB, LT, EDGE, ILB; Team Wants: QB
The Steelers are barely under the cap right now and still need to resign important players like LT Villanueva. I don't think they will be able to and thus will make a concerted effort to move up into the draft to select one of the top OT prospects. Only giving up a 3rd rounder to make sure Ben is protected is a steal.
19. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Trade Details: WFT trades Pick 19 and Pick 74 (3rd round from SF-Trent Williams trade) to NE for Pick 15 and Pick 144 (4th Rd Comp pick).
Team Needs: LG, WR; Team Wants: Pass catching RB, QB
The Patriots love big-bodied EDGE players with strong hands. They also like players from Michigan. Many analysts have pegged the Patriots as a team to take a rookie QB, but that doesn't make sense to me unless they can get one of the top 3 or 4. Bill is getting old and if he wants to beat Shula's win record he will need to coach 5 more seasons with 10+ wins. He is 68 years old right now. I don't think he wants to wait and see with a rookie.
20. CHICAGO BEARS: OT Tevin Jenkins, Oklahoma St
Team Needs: WR, CB, RT, SS; Team Wants: EDGE, QB, RG
With the recent release of RT Bobby Massie, the Bears can look to select his replacement... if they don't trade everything away for Russell Wilson. Tevin Jenkins fits the 'punch you in the face' Chicago Bears team that ended the 2020 season with Montgomery leading the way. If they can't find a QB replacement, they will need to continue to ground and pound which will be perfect for Jenkins' style.
TRADE! 21. CLEVELAND BROWNS: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Trade Details: CLE trades Pick 26 and Pick 89 (CLE's 2nd 3rd rounder) to IND for Pick 21 and Pick 166 (5th Rd).
Team Needs: EDGEx2, DT, OLB, ILB; Team Wants: WR
This comes down to getting ahead of the Titans. The Colts are more than willing to let a team jump their division rival. The EDGE class is really weird this year with not too many big-name guys, but Phillips is one of the few that could project to either a 3-4 or 4-3. Phillips also could be an absolute bust with career-threatening concussion, ankle, and wrist injuries in college that almost made him retire.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Team Needs: EDGE, NT, NCB, TE, WR, RG; Team Wants: RT, SS
Defensive line or bust? Most people think so and I do too, but cutting Malcolm Butler yesterday signals a look to the future in the secondary. They drafted CB Kristian Fulton last year in the 2nd round for this reason. But they also are going to be losing CB Adoree Jackson next offseason unless they resign him (would need to be for cheap). This pick is as much for today as it is for the future.
23. NEW YORK JETS (from SEA): WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Team Needs: RT, iOL, EDGE, CBx2, Nickel CB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB
This one may be surprising because I don't have WR down necessarily as a need or a want. But do you really believe Mims, Crowder and Perriman is a good WR trio? Crowder is a slot WR that can be easily released. Perriman is a deep threat speed WR that has had 1 good year in 6 seasons after being a 1st round selection. We haven't seen a lot from Mims but if you were to ask any scout if they would rather have Bateman or Mims it would be unanimous.
24. MIAMI DOLPHINS: LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Trade Details: PIT trades Pick 24 and Pick 87 (3rd rounder) to MIA for Pick 18.
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
If the Dolphins trade back from 18, I wouldn't be shocked if they selected Najee Harris. But in this mock, he has already been selected. I don't believe Etienne is the type of back the Dolphins will want since they already have similar bodied backs in Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. Therefore, we go to the defensive side after selecting WR/TE Kyle Pitts. Getting some additional LB/EDGE help will be a priority for the team this offseason.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from LAR): RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
Team Needs: QB, SS, WR; Team Wants: iOL, TE, EDGE, RB
I mentioned in an article last week that James Robinson doesn't fit the system that Urban Meyer will be bringing in. Trevor Lawrence will bring his RB with him to Jacksonville and they will run their college spread offense in the pros. This is such a fun pairing and while there are much more pressing needs for this team, OT is no longer one of them with Cam Robinson back for 2021.
26. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: OT Sam Cosmi, Texas
Trade Details: CLE trades Pick 26 and Pick 89 (CLE's 2nd 3rd rounder) to IND for Pick 21 and Pick 166 (5th Rd).
Team Needs: WR, CBx2, EDGE, LT; Team Wants: TE, WR
The Colts pick up a 3rd rounder, which they gave up in the Carson Wentz deal, and still get to select a LT. Cosmi is lighter than the average LT but makes up for it with his athleticism and will fit lovely with this outside-zone running scheme. If the team wants to switch things up they may look at a corner here.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS: FS Trevon Moehrig, TCU
Team Needs: RT, C, WR, EDGE; Team Wants: FS, LB
If they don't go RT, how about the best safety in this class? Trevon Moehrig is the perfect ballhawk to add to an already stacked Baltimore secondary. When they moved on from S Earl Thomas in training camp a few years back they never really went and replaced him. I love this fit especially because his aggressive style fits exactly what the Ravens love to be.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington
Team Needs: ILB, EDGE, WR, depth everywhere; Team Wants: CB, TE
I've been hesitant to slot an EDGE to the Saints because they invested so much to select EDGE Marcus Davenport in a trade-up a few years back. But he has given nothing back to the team and they are going to lose breakout EDGE Trey Hendrickson to free agency. The Saints like large EDGE defenders that are able to rush the passer AND set the edge in the run game (go figure). Tryon fits the height mold but is a little lighter than expected. If he can put on another 10-20 lbs at the NFL level, I like this fit a lot.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS: RT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Team Needs: TE, WR, C, ILB, CB; Team Wants: RT, NCB, ILB or DT
The release of RT Rick Wagner is due to Billy Turner going back to his role as RT and money. But I will scream it from every mountaintop. Billy Turner is not good. Enter Jalen Mayfield who can move Billy back to LG or you can just cut him outright. He will be a dream as a pass protector in this Aaron Rodgers lead offense.
30. BUFFALO BILLS: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Team Needs: NCB; Team Wants: DT, RB, LG, EDGE
I can almost guarantee JOK won't fall this far, buttttttttt we have seen versatile LB/S players fall in the draft before. If a team doesn't know exactly how to use them, it normally means that they won't draft him. The Bills take him as by far the best player on the board and can slot him in at outside LB to replace Matt Milano or slot corner.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: LB Baron Browning, Ohio St
Team Needs: LT, C, EDGE, LB; Team Wants: WR
One of the biggest risers in this weird draft cycle is LB Baron Browning out of Ohio St. The Chiefs never value the position though so that makes me a bit wary. Though, Baron is a perfect 4-3 Weakside LB for this supersonic Chiefs team. Defensive Coordinator Spagnuolo is known for blitzing and Baron would be a great chess piece to be able to sneak into backfields.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
Team Needs: Backup QB, KR, DT; Team Wants: FS, C, LT, RB, CB, P
The Bucs can't bring back everyone from the Super Bowl team and one player that has played his last down in Pewter and Red is WR Antonio Brown. While I am sure Scotty Miller will be pissed at this selection, the rich just get richer. Toney is a perfect fit for an offense that already features deep-threat Mike Evans and route runner Chris Godwin. I hate this selection so much because it feels so right.
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