Mock Draft 1.0 - 2/10/21
Draft season is officially upon us. Bask in its glory. Honestly, I think I might like this part of the season more than any other because I just find roster management so intriguing and because the Dolphins normally don't give me much hope during the year. Regardless, at this point in the calendar, every team is 0-0 again. Every team has hope... except the Lions. Maybe next year.
I will be doing a handful of mocks from this point until the Wednesday before the Draft. Last year I had 8 versions. Some with trades, some without. Some with a guest picker that selects either a specific conference or the odds/evens (if anyone wants to do that with me let me know because I have to plan it a few weeks ahead of time). This first mock will be really bad and as I go through the exercise I promise to get better. Last year, I entered a mock draft contest and got 109th out of over 2600 applicants. I am striving for better results this season.
All team needs from AFC + NFC South and West divisions will be updated to my team needs based on my Friday article series. For the time being, those Team Needs are based on the Draft Network's Team Needs page.
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MOCK DRAFT 1.0
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Team Needs: QB, LT, FS, SS, WR; Team Wants: CB, iOL, TE, EDGE
2. NEW YORK JETS: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Team Needs: RT, iOL, EDGE, LB, CBx2, S, Nickel CB; Team Wants: QB, RB, Everything
As of this moment, I plan on the Jets focusing on the QB position at the #2 pick. Wilson or Fields specifically. Things could change if Lance somehow elevates himself, but I think we have a solid 2A and 2B with these two. The reason I chose Wilson is that I am more afraid of Wilson on the Jets than I am Fields. It feels like Wilson operates better under pressure than Fields does. He is more likely to make a play out of nothing.
3. MIAMI DOLPHINS (from HOU): WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, WRx3, C; Team Wants: TE, OG, OT, S, EDGE, LB
There will be no trades in this mock draft, which would mean in this vacuum, Deshaun is still a Texan and Tua is a Dolphin. Working under that assumption, Tua needs separators. Chase can do it, but Devonta DOES IT. Put it this way... Devonta gets space whenever he wants it. Devonta reminds me of DK Metcalf in the way he attacks the game. He plays like it is a failure if he isn't open every single play. And Tua already has a connection with him. The WR that caught the winning TD in the Natty from Tua? Take a guess.
4. ATLANTA FALCONS: QB Justin Fields, Ohio St
Team Needs: RB, SS, EDGEx2, C, K; Team Wants: QB, SS, CB, LB, FS
Justin Fields is from Georgia, bring him home. It sounds like Atlanta is "committing" to not trading Julio or Ryan which is good for Justin. Give him some time to adjust to the NFL and I think it will do him wonders. This pick won't help Atlanta in the here and now, but Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot just signed 5 year deals and will have some leeway in this rebuild. I don't think this team will be picking in the top 5 again next season, so getting your next franchise QB now is the best option.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Team Needs: OT, iOL, CB, EDGE, LB; Team Wants: WR, TE
This pick is going to be rather chalk as well the whole way through. The only team in the top 4 that would entertain an OT would be Miami. I saw enough good things out of Austin Jackson last year AS A ROOKIE to give him another chance. He was selected as a developmental tackle after all. Penei opted out in 2020, but as a starting freshman and sophomore at LT, he allowed only 2 pressures in 21 games. Impressive, but he didn't go up against too many top EDGE rushers. The few that he did, he struggled in comparison. Slater is apparently "loved among teams" so this could change to him, but it will be a LT to protect Burrow regardless.
6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Team Needs: WRx2, CB, LB; Team Wants: Backup TE, C, G, SS
Well, it sounds like it is the Jalen Hurts show now. After the roster is ripped to shreds by all of the cuts and trades, I expect there will be a significant lack of playmakers. Insert Ja'Marr. He is the perfect type of WR for Jalen Hurts. A guy that you can trust will be able to go up and get the ball, but can also win over the middle.
7. DETROIT LIONS: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Team Needs: WRx2, DT, LB, S; Team Wants: CB, OT, iOL, EDGE
The Lions will be a team that really needs to look into trading down and acquiring more picks. Anyone wanting Lance, this is the place to go. They have a new GM and new coach and will be looking for guys that love the game more than anything. I don't think we will see 3 Top 10 WRs, but Waddle makes a ton of sense for a team with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay as FAs. Waddle is a better version of Henry Ruggs, when healthy. Amazingly, he actually weighs more than Smith and comes in a few inches shorter.
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota St
Team Needs: QB, LT, RT, Slot WR, OLB, ILB; Team Wants: OG, CB, TE
The Panthers have been the team most aggressively looking for QBs. I expect they will get a veteran QB in a trade rather than draft one at 8, but for this mock's purposes... Trey Lance is the rawest of the 4 selected QBs, but he has a really rare skillset. He is the most athletic of the 4 and has a knack for making the big play. I think Carolina would actually fit his style very well with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson both being very capable deep WRs. Also, Trey would best benefit from a year on the bench. He didn't play at all in 2020 (outside of one game vs Central Arkansas) because the FCS season was cancelled. And then I also mentioned the FCS. While his level of play wasn't against the Big 10 every game, he didn't lose in any of his 16 starts.
9. DENVER BRONCOS: QB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Team Needs: EDGE, QB, LB, iOL; Team Wants: DT, CB, OT
This is the first time I used whether a player played in 2020 or not as the tiebreaker. The Broncos need a lot of help on defense and while EDGE or LB isn't really a good value here, there are a couple of nice corners. Surtain played in 2020 and dominated again. Caleb Farley has great tape from 2019, but his decision to opt-out may cost him a few spots.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Team Needs: CB, EDGE, OT, C, FS; Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, LB, SS
The Cowboys proud offensive line is dead and gone. Slater is being talked about as a top 2 OT, but he may also be the best interior player in this class. The Cowboys have an opening at both spots and his flexibility will allow them the ability to get the best 5 men out there. I think he will start out on the interior and then once Smith is out of the picture, he will move to left tackle.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Team Needs: Backup QB, RT, EDGE, CB, LB; Team Wants: Backup RB, DT, WR
I had a really hard time with this selection. The Giants missed out on the top 3 WRs and top 2 OTs. If that happens, I am certain they go defense and I think they should regardless. Their DL will undergo a major reconstruction this offseason and Kwity is the best all-around DL in this class. He will line up mainly on the outside, but also lined up on the interior on occasion because of his strong hands.
12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: CB, iOL, OT, S; Team Wants: QB, EDGE
As of this writing, Trent Williams is an impending FA. He is also the top OL available and will command a lot of money on the open market. The 49ers traded for him so I'm not sure if they just allow him to walk out of the building, but if they do or sign him to a short-term deal... Darrisaw is the best OL in this class for an outside zone blocking scheme. The 49ers will allow him to use his athleticism to his full advantage and should be an immediate starter at tackle.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Team Needs: OT, LB, CB, TE; Team Wants: EDGE, C, WR, iOL
Yes. Yes. Yes. Hunter Henry won't be back after the Chargers tagged him last year. And while Henry is a more formidable blocker, Pitts oozes with ability from a playmaking standpoint. The #1 job for the Chargers needs to be competing with and beating the Chiefs. Getting as many freak athletes for Herbert will help. His athleticism will make him virtually uncoverable by LBs.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: OG/OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Team Needs: iOL, LB, OT, S, EDGE; Team Wants: DT, CB, QB
Minnesota runs a zone-blocking scheme on offense which helps get Dalvin Cook freed up for those big runs we see every year. And as good as Dalvin has been, it is mind-boggling that the Vikings continue to struggle in pass protection and getting to the 2nd level on runs. They just gotta keep hammering away until they get it right. Alijah played LG for USC in 2018-19 when Austin Jackson was the LT and then moved to LT this past season. That positional flexibility will be very juicy for a team like MIN who could use help at both spots.
15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Team Needs: QB, LG, C, LB, WR; Team Wants: WR, EDGE, Pass catching RB
The Patriots are the odd team out this offseason when it comes to these QBs. I don't see how they can afford Watson. Darnold won't be traded within the division unless they get a 1st (which doesn't sound reasonable). Wentz sounds like Indy/Chicago. Carr maybe? Teddy? All signs point to a veteran FA and a rookie. Mac Jones' best fits are probably Indy and New England based on their previous work with less mobile QBs. Mac Jones can be mobile when he wants, but he has slower feet when in the pocket. I don't think Mac should be drafted in the 1st, but his stock seemed to have risen after the Senior Bowl.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: RB, CB, TE, iOL, DT; Team Wants: EDGE, WR, LB
Caleb's fall finally stops as he goes to fill their large shoes that Patrick Peterson has left for him. There are only so many CBs that I think are worthy of a 1st round pick and he is one so he probably won't fall this far. So I think this will be his floor. Caleb is a very physical corner and had a good ability to be sticky on his receivers in man coverage.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: LB Micah Parsons, Penn St
Team Needs: LB, EDGE, DT, S; Team Wants: WR, QB, CB
Once thought of as a top 5 player in this class, Micah has fallen down mock drafts because of his positional importance and some off-field concerns. The big red flags are about a hazing incident at Penn St. Those charges were dropped and Yetur Gross-Matos from the Panthers was drafted in the 2nd round last year with the same incident. There is also a small concern about how much he loves football. But Micah is a baller when he is focused. He is a natural pass rusher, has good speed to go sideline to sideline in coverage, and has experience with the MIKE role.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Team Needs: RB, WRx2, C; Team Wants: TE, OG, OT, S, EDGE, LB
JOK is a JACK of all trades which Brian Flores seems to love. Positional flexibility is very important for this defense that lines up all over the place. He is listed as a LB but also is quick enough to play safety. Think Simmons or Chinn from last year's class or Mathieu or Deone Buchanon. Miami could really use an upgrade at our free safety and at LB. I'm not sure if he is capable of the FS role, but I believe he could fill the LB spot nicely.
19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: WR Terrace Marshall Jr, LSU
Team Needs: WR, QB, LB; Team Wants: Slot WR, EDGE, LT, S
I mentioned the Patriots as a team that struck out in this "mock universe" in regards to getting a QB. If they struck out, Washington didn't even get an at-bat. It seemed like Washington was willing to offer their first plus picks for Stafford, so I think they will get something done. But without trades here, they stick it out and go the FA route. To pair with that new QB, let's get him a shiny toy. Marshall was the step-child in the 2019 LSU offense, but that step-child still got over 1k yards in 2019. With no Jefferson and Chase having opted out, Marshall had the offense all to himself and shined. Marshall will be able to line up in the slot or out wide and has all of the tools to make him a great WR2 alongside Terry Mclaurin.
20. CHICAGO BEARS: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Team Needs: OT, iOL, WR, LB, CB; Team Wants: QB, WR
The Bears follow Washington's lead and select another WR. Bateman's flavor is a bit different though. He is more of a vertical threat than Marshall. He doesn't have insane speed, but offers good separation skills and is able to win the 1v1 contested catch. He will have big shoes to fill following the departure of Allen Robinson, but has similar tools to be able to do so.
21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
Team Needs: QB, WR, CBx2, EDGE, LT; Team Wants: TE, WR, SS
The Colts can't afford to go all-in to try to get one of these top 4 QBs from way back at 21. Who their starter in 2021 is yet to be seen. But at least he will be protected. Eichenberg was best in college when he was asked to move up the field on run downs and work on double teams to help the RB beat the edge. With new RB Jonathan Taylor having some success breaking big runs to the outside, I think he should be very successful in this fit. He isn't as technically sound in pass protection as other available OL, but the Colts formula for success comes with running.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS: DL Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Team Needs: DTx2, EDGEx2, NT, CB, Nickel CB; Team Wants: WR, TE, RT, iOL, LB
Similar to Parsons, Rousseau was once thought of as a top 5 pick. He exploded with 15.5 sacks in 2019, but decided to opt-out of the 2020 season. With a very limited amount of snaps on tape, who knows where he will end up. He was able to get great production, but he wasn't very technically refined (especially when you compare him to his teammates Roche and Phillips). Rousseau does give you some flexibility in where you line up him, which Vrabel (Patriots tree) will covet. At the end of the day, the Titans just need to select the best available DL and throw him at EDGE or DT and let him go to work.
23. NEW YORK JETS (from SEA): CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Team Needs: RT, iOL, EDGE, LB, CBx2, S, Nickel CB; Team Wants: QB, RB, Everything
I do not care that Etienne and Najee are still on the board. The Jets need everything and I am not going to select a RB when one of the last Round 1 corners is still on the board. Jaycee Horn is the son of former Saint, Joe Horn. He played some nickel, but mostly boundary corner in college. He is 6'1 and has the prototype measurables that you want to see in #1 CBs, but has shown that he struggles to tackle. In coverage, he is very physical and disruptive at the catch point. Who is going to cover Stefon Diggs on the Jets if they don't get a corner?
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, CB, iOL, OT; Team Wants: EDGE, DT, LB, QB, WR
Best player available for the Steelers. They are running it back with Ben one more time and they need to rely on him less in his final season. Najee is a terror for any defender coming up to tackle him. He is 230 lbs and will hurdle you if he has the chance. He has incredibly soft hands for such a big man and is very fluent with his motion from running a route to catching and turning upfield. His biggest downside is he doesn't have breakaway speed.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from LAR): OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Team Needs: QB, LT, FS, SS, WR; Team Wants: CB, iOL, TE, EDGE
QB Check. LT Check. The 2 biggest needs and 2 foundational players for years to come for the Jags come in the 2021 Draft. Jalen has a limited resume as a starter, but has shown incredible improvement since his first start. Expectations right out of the gate for him to be a plus starter are a little rich for my blood, but I think once he gets used to the level of play his natural athleticism will take over.
26. CLEVELAND BROWNS: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Team Needs: EDGE, CB, DT, LB; Team Wants: S, OT, iOL
A transfer from UCLA, Jaelan never really put it all together for a season, until 2020. Phillips was a 5-star recruit that showed his natural ability to rush the passer, set the edge, and make plays with the Canes. He transferred because of limited playing time due to several injuries and because of that has a limited amount of tape. The Browns are going to be in need of a difference-maker alongside Myles Garrett as they are expected to lose Vernon and a DT.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS: LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, iOL; Team Wants: S, LB, CB, DT
If you haven't heard of Zaven Collins in this draft cycle yet, you haven't been paying attention. Let me introduce you to the Best Defensive Player in College Football in 2020. No really, that's the award he won this year. Zaven is your classic do-it-all LB and his tape proves it. He rushes the passer, he drops back into coverage (and intercepts the ball and brings it back for 6), he is the play-caller. Whatever you want him to be. When I think of Zaven Collins, the only team I want to mock him to is the Ravens. They just drafted Patrick Queen last year as their MIKE and he struggled a bit. This pick is not to replace him, but to help reinforce him. Losing either Yannick or Judon this year will be a big loss in pass-rush productivity. Zaven will be able to pick that up and also reinforce the LB core when they need to drop back. My favorite fit in the draft.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri
Team Needs: QB, CB, ILB, EDGE, TE, depth everywhere; Team Wants: WR, FS, DT, CB
I cannot think of the last time the Saints had a LB I was afraid of. They have had rushing OLBs, but I am talking about a MIKE LB. In the middle of the field, calling the plays, staring the opponents QB down, and being an enforcer. Nick Bolton is that player. Nick is rangy enough to be put in pass coverage duties, but would be best served in zone coverage over the middle of the field where he can read the QB and react.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
Team Needs: LB, iOL, RB, CB; Team Wants: WR, OT, S
I know this won't actually happen, but it should if Toney is still on the board. Toney is exactly the type of weapon Rodgers does not have that would take this offense to the next level. Toney will instantly be one of the biggest highlight makers in 2021 because of YAC ability. Getting him the ball on screens or end-arounds will be big, but he is just as good down the field and he showed that in 2020. Regardless of if he has the ball, people will pay attention to him especially if he is put in motion. A lot of the stuff the Chiefs do with Hardman and Hill will be used with him. He probably is a bit more of a slot WR at this stage, but I can see that expanding.
30. BUFFALO BILLS: EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas
Team Needs: CB, LB; Team Wants: RB, LG, RG, EDGE
What to get someone when they already have everything? The Bills are in a great trade back area if someone is trying to get back into the 1st round. There are some really nice players in this area, but their positions of need are a bit lacking. Ossai will be best used as a pass rusher rather than an outside LB that drops into coverage. Last year, the Bills selected AJ Epenesa in the 2nd round who was a heavy-handed, large DE. Ossai is a bit more slender but still is able to bring the power with his hands.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas
Team Needs: OT, iOL, LB, CB; Team Wants: WR, EDGE
The Chiefs got bullied by the Bucs in the trenches. There is a lot of questions about whether RT Mitchell Schwartz will be back in 2021 due to being a possible cap casualty. If that is the case, Cosmi can slip right into his spot. He isn't the heaviest tackle out there, but his lean build and athleticism show up in his ability to move upfield on running plays. He will fit very well in a zone running scheme such as KC.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami
Team Needs: WR, LB, Backup QB, EDGE, KR; Team Wants: FS, C, LT, RB, CB, P
This is a bit of a reach for others, but I saw everything I needed to see at the Senior Bowl. Tampa has a decision to make at EDGE with Shaq Barrett and if he becomes the odd one out, Quincy will fill that 3-4 OLB role well. Great as a pass rusher, but we all knew that. In Mobile, he was able to show us that he can stand up against these OTs and set the edge in the run game too.
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