Fantasy advice

 Easy draft strategies:

1: Best Player Available - It's simple enough. Just take the highest guy on your board (or if you dont have a board then the player next up in the queue).

2. Starters first - Fill out your starting lineup (except kicker/defense) first to get the strongest possible starters week to week.

3. Best Player by Position Available - If you need another WR because you already have 4 RBs, a TE and a QB but only 2 WRs then draft the next one up on your board.

Loopholes in easy draft strategies:

1. Best Player Available - You may end up with too much depth at a position that you don't need depth at. For instance, if you draft a top 3 TE, you probably don't need to draft a backup because you would only ever bench him if he gets hurt or is on a bye. You also may end up with too much depth at a position. For instance, if you don't draft a top TE maybe it would be a good idea to draft a backup. But you don't need a 3rd.

2. Starters first - If one of your starters at RB/WR gets hurt or doesn't live up to expectations you may have compromised on depth at the position to select a QB/TE earlier than necessary. If you happen to get a top TE and top QB early then this scenario doesn't apply however you would not have higher end RB/WR which is a gamble.

3. Best Player by Position Available - There is something to be said about keeping a balanced roster. At the same time, a good player is a good player is a good player. If you have 4 RBs already and feel like you can't take another because you only have 2 WRs, don't force it. If you think the RB will outperform the WR then take them. You can always make changes after the draft either by trade or via free agency/waivers.

Moderately difficult draft strategies:

1. Taking players on winning/high-scoring teams - This doesn't require much thought to pull off however does require you to know the teams. The issue with this strategy would be if the team(s) you identify as a good one to target does not perform. Additionally, some teams win and score a certain way more often than others. For instance, the Bills tend to throw the ball more in the end zone than other teams. So while a RB for the Bills has value because there is always an opportunity to score, he may not actually score enough because the team doesn't play that way most of the time.

2. Bye Week Managers - This isn't something you probably need to keep in mind however it is something you may find you want to consider. Every team has one bye week during the season some time between Week 5 and 14. The fantasy regular season ends in Week 14. At least 2 and up to 6 different teams will have byes during the same week so it is possible that your top players share the same bye weeks. There is something to be said about avoiding the parody of bye weeks as much as possible and trying not to select players that have the same byes. However, my opinion on it is that if I really like a player and he has the same bye as another starter of mine then I'll just take a lump that week if I even have that player on my team by that point in the season. As I said before, by the midway point of the season half of your roster will be different.

3. Stock up on RBs - There are only so many great fantasy running backs and they make all the difference. Last season, 16 different WRs got 240 fantasy points or more (14.1 points per game). Only 7 RBs hit that mark. 27 WRs hit 200 fantasy points (11.7 points per game) while only 17 RBs did. Of those 17 RBs with 200 or more points, 12 of them were drafted in the top 3 rounds, and of the 7 RBs that hit 240 points, 5 of them were drafted in the top 2 rounds. There are a greater number of RBs taken in the top 2 rounds than WRs on average because of this (around 12-15 total RBs). Including TEs into the mix, only 2 TEs hit over 240 points and only one other got over 200 (209 points to be exact). The top two players got 300 and 264 respectively and are the top 2 TEs in the draft this year which is why there is a large gap between them and the next TEs available.  

4. TE Premium - I just got finished talking about there only being 2 elite TEs last year. But because there were only two, if you have one of those two players you have a large advantage over your opponents that don't have one of them at that position. Tight end is generally considered the luckiest of the FLEX positions because they often get targeted in the end zone for touchdowns because they are so big. But the top TEs like Kelce and Andrews especially are basically big WRs and get a lot of yards and catches outside the end zone as well. Having that positional advantage can be an underrated strategy but it will come at the cost of a premium RB/WR.

5. QB/WR Stacking - It's a bit of a boom or bust idea but stacking is a very common strategy in fantasy. The idea is to pair one of your starting WRs up with his QB in real life. For example, pairing WR Mike Evans up with QB Tom Brady. If Brady throws a touchdown to Evans that is almost double points because both will get the credit. It can be a bit of a risky game if you do a stack with a lower-tier offense though that doesn't always put up points. However, the top WR options tend to be on high-octane offenses that score plenty.

6. Handcuffs & Backup RBs - I will go into it a bit more in the next strategy but handcuffs is a term you will here at least once during the draft or possibly before. A handcuff is a RB that will not get any meaningful game time unless the starter gets hurt but would take over the load if that happened. This type of player has either no value or a lot of value and there is no in between. There are only a few true handcuffs that you need to be aware of because most NFL teams now have multiple RBs that they use intermittently throughout the game and would have more come in if an injury happened. Those are Alexander Mattison in Minnesota, Kenneth Walker in Seattle, Darrel Henderson in LA Rams, Rachaad White in Tampa.

However there are also a lot of backup RBs that will be drafted. Some of these players will be drafted ahead of other starting RBs even like Kareem Hunt in Cleveland and AJ Dillon in Green Bay and Tony Pollard in Dallas and Melvin Gordon in Denver. These RBs have proven to have FLEX level value even though they do not get all the touches and are not the leading man and they also would likely carry the load if an injury happened to the starter. But not all backup RBs have the same pedigree. Some are merely pass catching RBs that have a role but would not assume the position if the starter got hurt, some are unproven players, and others are weird and dont fit into any of these buckets and probably have limited potential.

The strategy to implement on Handcuffs is one of either option. If you draft the starting RB for MIN/SEA/LAR/TB then you may want to consider grabbing the handcuff to get the entire backfield knowing that if an injury happens you can throw in the other guy. However, you may also want to consider still drafting a handcuff even if you dont have the starter because then you could have the starting RB for MIA and if an injury happens in MIN also the starter there and you got him at a low cost.

The strategy for backup RBs is confusing to explain and almost makes me want to urge you towards starters even more as it would be less confusing. However I will say that backups especially those I listed above can have very important fantasy value as a starter. Their upside is generally limited because they won't ever truly be the featured player but points are still points. It is fine and a good idea to grab a couple backup RBs for your bench but generally WRs in the later rounds have more of an opportunity to pop in any given week (though you have to know when to start them anyway so good luck because I'm still trying to figure that out).

7. Know your league scoring - We are playing in a PPR league. That means point per reception. So every time a player on your team catches a pass they get a point. In any given week, a winning score in fantasy is likely going to be over 120 fantasy points from all your players. Many things in fantasy are not a given. However some touches are very trendable and some players tend to be in an opportunity for catches more often. Taking RBs that have a propensity to catch the ball isn't a bad idea. Taking WRs that get a lot of opportunities on shorter routes (easier throws to complete) is a way to get some easy points. On the flip side, some of these players that get easy points with catches do not always have big play potential and can have a limited upside. Finding a marriage between scoring TDs, getting big plays, and receiving catches is how you find a championship ring on your finger.

Expert level draft strategies:

1. Zero-RB - I personally don't advocate for this strategy. Its very risky in my opinion to leave the draft without at least one RB from the first 2 rounds because you likely are not going to end up with a top 7 (or so) RB. Because the RB position isn't deep I hate taking that risk. All that being said... this strategy has you not take a RB for the first 4-6 rounds of your draft and taking elite options at the other positions like WR/TE/QB. The idea being that while the best RBs tend to come from this part of the draft, the position is also very volatile and most injuries in fantasy happen to this position. WRs and TEs taken at the top of the draft are normally not busts and will get you consistent points. This strategy then has you take RBs that are risk/reward players like rookies or timeshare (not a starting RB but will still get touches) or pass catching specialists (also not a starting RB but has the upside of catching the ball which will bring up the floor of the player) or handcuffs. This strategy then also would require you to be active on the waiver wire and free agency pool to look for RBs that may have upside or a potential path to becoming a starter.

2. Adopt multiple ideas and be ready to pivot during the draft - This isn't a strategy as much as it is the best possible advice I can give. When I go into a draft telling myself I need to come out of it with a certain player or I will for sure be taking a RB with my first pick and commit to that, I tend to miss other paths and opportunities that open up for me during the draft. People dont always make the smart pick or the one you expect so being able to switch ideas quickly is important. There is a max of 60 seconds per selection and most people go faster than that. So keeping up with everything in the moment can be a lot but there are tools in the draft software I can show you to help you.

3. Draft your defense and kicker last. Please god dont waste a pick and take one early.

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There is no one best way to value positions. Everyone has a different take or a take that is layered. My position on the matter is that I normally want to try to get a RB who has potential to be top 5 or so at the position by the end of the year. That type of player has such an advantage week to week that he can be relied upon at a position that normally doesn't have that level of consistency. 

QBs and TEs are kinda in the same boat but you should draft them very differently. Both of the positions tend to have a top 3-5 players and then what looks like a steep drop off in terms of where they are being drafted. The ELITE tier for these positions should be considered differently though because the QB position is very deep. Josh Allen was drafted as a top 2 QB last year while Brady was in the 7-10 range. They finished with less than a 2 PPG (points per game) difference between them last year and Josh Allen had a career high in rushing yards (very valuable for QBs). Brady also gives you zero value with his legs so they couldn't be more polar opposites yet if you had Brady last year you didn't complain once. In fact, 3 of the top 10 QBs last year ended up being drafted outside of the top 10. What you will notice about the top 10 guys from last year is they all threw for at least 30 touchdowns OR had over 750 rushing yards (Allen had both). This is a benchmark you should look for among your QBs when drafting. Try to find a pass heavy offense that throws the ball even when they get in close and if they can add value with their leagues they also have top 10 potential (Hurts, Jackson, Lance, Murray).

I told you TEs are kinda similar with the ELITE tier of guys at the top and then a drop off. However the drop off is steep and then its into an abyss after the next tier. The top 2 guys in fantasy this year for the TE spot are Kelce and Andrews. They both are the #1 pass catching options on their team. Only one other TE may be able to boast that. Additionally they are threats not only in the red zone but in the middle part of the field and can rack up yards after the catch. That is something to especially look for with breakout TEs if you cant find one of the top ones. You want guys who can get you a floor of yardage and not just hoping they fall into the end zone. There may be a bye week guy that that's just what you hope for but its not something you want to rely on the entire season. After the top 2 we have a tier of guys who either have the potential to be in the elite tier or have been their previously in Kittle, Waller, and Pitts. All have the ability but there are question marks surrounding them. The next tier is Schultz, Hockenson, Goedert, Ertz? tier. If you dont have a TE by this point you will be basically praying to the fantasy gods that you get lucky because everyone after this is not to be relied upon. Some guys may have some endearing qualities or former production but its untrustworthy and inconsistent. I went a bit more in depth with this tier because there is a clear path of how the position works and if you're on the wrong side of it, the rest of your team better make up for it.

WRs are incredibly interesting. You have total boom/bust guys that could score you 30 or 5 in a given week. Others that are right down the middle consistently at 8-12 points but never more never less which caps your upside in a given week. Others are superstars and can be relied upon as a 20 point getter almost every week and should be cherished. The good thing is that we normally know who these players are prior to the draft. There normally isn't a ton of parody if you've done your homework. The top guys are at the top because they have high floors and high ceilings weekly. The guys in the middle rounds tend to be either your down the middle or boom/bust guys (or unproven but have the potential for high floor/high ceiling). The guys in the late rounds tend to be unproven and likely thought to be down the middle or boom/bust guys. There are always surprises of course but we have had Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at the top 5 of the WR ranks for like 5 years now. We know what they are. We have had Mike Evans and Keenan Allen right outside the top 5 for like 5 years now but clearly above the middle round guys because they are elite but not super elite. We know what they are. This is the position group you can most closely follow the draft rankings with.

In summary, you asked for which positions are best for points. Because our league only starts 1 QB it is not the most important even though it will score the most points for you more than likely. The top 5 of the RB group and the top 15 of the WR and top 3 TEs (by the end of the season) group is going to be where the "league winners" come from. The biggest point discrepancy in terms of tiers is always the top 3 TEs to the rest and the top 5-8 RBs to the rest. WRs score more usually but are grouped a bit more closely. Consider using a WR for your flex because of this and the depth is usually easier to find good WR options.

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Here is a link for you to see which teams through the ball the most in 2021. Keep in mind a few things. If you see a good team (Tampa) at the top of this list they are a team you want to target in fantasy. For every position not just WR/QB/TE. RBs are valuable on these teams because they score a lot on these teams that are good. If you see a bad team (Jets), it is likely because they are losing a lot and are needing to catch up. That is called garbage time points in fantasy and they count the same but there is always a lot more volatility in these offenses.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct

Also here are the NFL standings from last year and make sure you pay attention to the PF category which shows the Points scored by the team. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm

Another thing you want to keep in mind. The 5 teams at the bottom of the passing list are TEN, NO, PHI, SF, and IND. IND, TEN, and NO all have a RB that is ranked in the top 8 in fantasy this year. Philly and San Fran rotate their backs more so while they arent elite options at the position they do have a tendency to run the ball more than the average team. 

I won't get too much into the weeds of it but I'd also keep in mind teams that have a new QB or head coach this year as teams that may change up the way their offense worked from previous years. Those teams would be DEN, MIA, SEA, PIT, NYG, WSH, CAR, ATL, NO, HOU, IND, JAX, LV, SF, MIN, CHI. That is half of the league.

Some teams that I will be specifically targeting are Tampa (highly efficient offense on ground and air), Denver (new QB that hopefully can unlock underrated WRs), Kansas City (high octane passing offense), LA Chargers and Rams (highly efficient offense on ground and air), San Francisco (lots of talent but a first time QB so question marks), Minnesota (normally puts up lots of yards but doesn't always score/win), Buffalo (most 3 WR plays in the NFL), Baltimore (top rushing team in NFL because QB is athletic and blocking scheme is elite), Cincinnati (young but elite offense in all phases).

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Some players that I view differently than how sleeper views them (will update as I get these figured out)

Early Round Players: 

1. RB Nick Chubb (lower) because he doesn't catch passes. He is going to get you 1200+ rushing yards in a season and a decent amount of touchdowns but no work in the passing game limits upside.

2. RB Alvin Kamara (higher) because he should be ranked higher. The only reason he is at RB10 is because there is a fear of suspension. By the time we draft you will know if he is suspended or not. If he isn't he is a top 5 RB.

3. WR AJ Brown (lower) because I'm just a little worried about the passing offense. He is a great talent and should be at the very least on par with his production when he was in TEN the last few years. But he gets soft tissue injuries and the Eagles QB isn't a great passer. But I still like him a lot. Just have a few other players higher.

4. RB Cam Akers (higher) because he is my ride or die player this year. If you draft him I will be mad. I'm not telling you where I have him ranked because I love him so much.

Middle Round Players:

1. TE George Kittle (lower) because I'm worried about how the new QB will distribute the ball. Kittle is a huge target and is elite at the position. But he is in a run first offense with a new QB that is very very green. I dont think Kittle will be the first or second option in this offense in terms of targets. But I could be wrong.

2. WR Jaylen Waddle (lower) because I am a Dolphins fan and tend to know things about the Dolphins. Tyreek Hill is going to be the man this year. Waddle will get his but I don't think he will be the same player he was last year. More boom/bust potential this year because less targets and likely more yards after the catch.

3. WR DK Metcalf (lower) because I have no clue what Seattle is doing. They have two crappy QBs and even though DK is awesome and a big target I am worried because he was incredibly frustrating last year too with a good QB.

4. RB Antonio Gibson (lower) because I dont think he is the RB1 on his own team anymore and he is now the teams kickoff returner. RB1s are NOT the starting kick returner.

5. RB JK Dobbins (higher) because the Ravens run the ball as much as any team in the league and he was drafted to be the guy.

6. QB Joe Burrow (lower) because he doesn't have enough rushing ability. He will be awesome and throw for 5k yards possibly. He will be awesome. But if he doesn't get 5k yards he wont reach top 5 QBs.

7. WR Amari Cooper (lower) because he is the best WR on a run first team with a terrible QB for the first 11 games of the season. But even when he has been the best WR on his team he has been boom/bust. 

8. WR Chris Godwin (higher) because if he comes back healthy he is a top 12 WR. But if he doesn't come back healthy then you may be in trouble. He had a major injury last season and is still not at 100%.

9. WR Michael Thomas (lower) because he just can't get healthy after 2 years of being hurt. Still the same soft tissue injury.

10. WR DeAndre Hopkins (lower) because he is suspended for the first 6 games and when he played last season he finally became a human being. Top top talent but is getting old.

11. WR Gabriel Davis (higher) because he is on the Bills and is the #2 target a team that throws the ball a lot. He will be on the field ALL THE TIME.

Late Round Players: Normally everyone here is a pray and hope it hits type of player. I get deep into my research to find players I think could stand out here and often get them wrong anyway. But my best suggestion for this area is getting players on good teams or young players. I can help with the young players 

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General tips but I have gone over most of these: https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/34328796/field-yates-10-essential-rules-fantasy-football-drafts

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/34200063/more-important-fantasy-football-first-two-rounds-floor-ceiling

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/34257526/fantasy-football-top-tier-qb-worth-drafting-aggressively