Mock Draft 6.0 - Predictive Preparation - 4/14/21
We are getting down to the final days of the Draft season and it's always amazing to me how much work goes into all this draft prep, whether it be myself or the networks or whoever, and we all still don't know shit. I mean we know the Jags and Jets first pick, but beyond that everyone is still just guessing and trying to galaxy brain everything. I am guilty of it too because it is just so damn fun.
In keeping with the "Galaxy Braining", my mock today and then my mock 2 weeks from today will both be predictive mocks. Meaning this is not based on my board. It is not based on what I would do if I was the GM of the team. I am going to try to guess what I think will happen on draft night. In 2020, I got 8 out of the 32 picks exactly right meaning player to team. To maximize my chances of getting these picks right, I don't do trades. I know there will be trades but if I did have a trade in my mock and it doesn't happen then I screw up at least 2 teams, if not more. In a contest with 2,643 participants, I finished with the 109th best mock draft. (You get 2 points for matching the player to the right team and 1 point for getting a player in the 1st round.) My entire goal this offseason is to improve upon that, which is obviously something that comes down to a bit of luck. But all the work with the Team Needs articles and Senior Bowl write-up and Pro Day reviews and everything in between was done with the hope of improving.
If you see any picks that look kinda crazy it is because of the predictive nature of this. I am trying to nail as many players to teams as possible and sacrificing other things that I know will happen like Mac Jones being taken earlier than Pick 28 (spoiler alert). I think you all probably understand so let's get into it.
Previous Mocks:
Version 1.0 (no trades)
Version 2.0 (no trades)
Version 3.0 (with trades)
Version 4.0 (2 rounds with trades)
Version 5.0 (2 rounds with trades with Sam Teets)
_______________________________________________________________
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Team Needs: QB, FS, iOL; Team Wants: OT, TE, EDGE, RB
2. NEW YORK JETS: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Team Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, CB, NCB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB, C, CB
Well I've been doing it for Trevor so since Zach is 100% this pick... Zach Wilson Fun Fact #1: Zach is of Hawaiian descent. His middle name is Kapono, which means "righteous".
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (from MIA via HOU): QB Justin Fields, Ohio St
Team Needs: G, CB, FS; Team Wants: Starting QB, RB, DT
I have gone through all of the 3 QBs at this spot. When the trade first happened, it was Lance. Then everyone in the media was on the Mac Jones train so I leaned there. Fields makes a lot more sense to me. The 2 things I keep going back to are they traded two future 1sts to select this guy at pick 3. They could have waited and traded up to 7 or so for Mac. Additionally, Shanahan wants someone who has the athletic ability to make plays off-script like Josh Allen did against them. Fields can do that and even though he could play sooner than Lance, he would benefit from a full year behind Jimmy as well.
4. ATLANTA FALCONS: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Team Needs: SS, FS, EDGEx2, LG, OLB; Team Wants: CB
If Atlanta is taking a quarterback they are doing a great job at keeping it under wraps. We know they have done their due diligence and have attended the QB Pro Days. But no one has any idea what they want to do. I still believe they need to address the defense, but if they stay at 4 that won't be likely. New Titans HC Arthur Smith values the TE position and therefore will take Pitts even if they don't need to add to the skill position group.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, OGx2, C; Team Wants: ILB, TE
I know I keep giving Sewell to the Bengals. There are conflicting sources out there that say that Joe Burrow has the ears of the Front Office and that he wants them to select Chase. I am awfully close to making that the pick but I am not comfortable enough yet to do so. Perhaps by the final mock.
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS (from PHI): WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
This is not the selection I would make but I believe the Miami Big Board is 1. Pitts 2. Chase 3. Devonta 4. Waddle. No offensive lineman. If the Falcons pass on a QB, I think this will be an inflection point for a QB trade up. There have been some rumors that Detroit may want to take a QB. Personally, I don't believe in those rumors and think Miami might be trying to drum up interest for their pick.
7. DETROIT LIONS: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
Team Needs: WR, RT, ILB, OLB, CB; Team Wants: DT, FS, SS, OG
Detroit is playing their own game this offseason. Moving on from 2 of their 4 best players in Golladay and Stafford has signalled to the NFL that they intend to be sellers, but I foresee a similar path that the Panthers made last year. They got Goff and Brockers from the Rams, which tells me they aren't going into 2021 feeling bad for themselves. They want to improve and compete. I don't think a QB is in the cards because of Goff's financials, but he needs weapons. I think the NFL views Devonta higher than the Draft Twitter community.
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Team Needs: LT, OG, Slot WR, FS; Team Wants: TE, DT, OG
With Darnold acquired, Carolina needs to shift focus onto the Offensive Line. Slater is a perfect fit for them because he can fit at guard or left tackle. Ultimately, if you are drafting him in the top 10, he is going to be a tackle. Some still think the Panthers may be in the QB conversation but I dispelled that in my last article if you missed that.
9. DENVER BRONCOS: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota St
Team Needs: QB, ILB; Team Wants: ILB, RT, CB
Here is where I get a little cheeky with my mock. I think Trey is taken at Pick 9. I just don't know by who. Assuming Lance (or Fields) is available at this pick, I think someone will move up to secure them. Patriots, Bears, Saints, Steelers. All possibilities. Maybe there is a surprise team in there too. I just think that the Mac Jones narrative is just that. A narrative. Lance is the guy you want in the top 10 with all of his traits. Denver selecting him would make sense for a team that feels like it is a QB away. Vic Fangio has been dealt a shitty hand on the offensive side of things and if he doesn't get a QB now, he may get fired without ever having one.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Team Needs: CB, FS; Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, EDGE, SS, OT
Feels like a slam dunk, set it and forget it type pick. "Yea but Jerry Jones likes Kyle Pitts." So does everyone else. Jerry isn't trading a future 1st round pick for a TE when this defense is the issue. They need to stop ignoring the secondary. The Cowboys selected an Alabama CB last year in the 2nd round so assuming they liked what they saw out of Diggs, they should love Surtain here. If the Cowboys do shock the world, I bet it is for an EDGE.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Team Needs: EDGE, LB; Team Wants: LG, RT, Backup RB, Backup QB
If I get the Giants pick correct on draft night someone owes me a dollar or something because I just have no clue. I keep going back to the fact that they need EDGE talent big time. But then I also hear that they like Devonta Smith a lot. And if they like Smith, shouldn't they also like Waddle since I think he is better than Smith? And what about Slater if he is there because they could use some OL help? I believe the NFL values Phillips and his traits more than any other EDGE in this class and without the injury issues, he would be a top 10 pick, no doubt about it. But the injury concerns are real.
12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (from MIA via SF): WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Team Needs: WRx2, CB, LB; Team Wants: Backup TE, C, G, QB
WR or CB. Real easy for the Eagles that traded back to acquire another future 1st. I believe if they can land one of the top 4 pass catchers they will be excited but getting Horn or Surtain will be better than a normal consolation prize. There is a rumor floating around as I write this that some NFL teams have Waddle as their highest-rated WR. It doesn't surprise me. Similar to last year's top 3 of Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs, you have 3 very different WRs. Chase wins with contested catches. Smith has the best hands and route running. Waddle is by far the fastest and has good hands as well.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: LT, OG, EDGE; Team Wants: OLB, CB, WR
Another set it and forget it. I would be genuinely surprised if this pick is not Darrisaw. I don't envision someone taking him before this pick unless the Giants surprise or someone moves ahead of LA to snipe him. Darrisaw is one of the last natural LTs on the board and the Chargers need him desperately to protect Herbert. If Darrisaw is gone, I don't think they select AVT anymore. Maybe Parsons or an EDGE.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Team Needs: EDGE, FS, LT, iOL; Team Wants: RT
The Vikings haven't selected a defensive lineman in the first round since 2013 with DT Sharieff Floyd and then 2005 before that. Therefore, I have slotted them a defensive lineman. 😅 Trends are meant to be broken or something like that, I don't know. I look at this Vikings team and see that Danielle Hunter wants to be traded and don't understand I can give them any other position because Hunter is all they have. But yes I do understand OL should be addressed as well. What if the Vikings shock us all though? I know they keep kicking the Kirk Cousins can down the road with his massive guaranteed deals. But what if they are one of the sneaky teams in on one of these top QBs?
15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: LB Micah Parsons, Penn St
Team Needs: WRx2; Team Wants: QB, LB
Everyone says the Patriots are going to trade up. Therefore they must be trading down or not trading at all. When have the Patriots ever spilt the beans or done anything that the media thinks they will do when it comes to the draft? Parsons is being mocked to the Pats a lot, but I think everyone wants to give them a WR or QB. The Patriots have Hightower and Kyle Van Noy among a few other guys at the LB spot, but most of those guys are on expendable deals. I don't know if it will stop Bill from selecting a very special talent in Parsons.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Team Needs: OG, TE; Team Wants: SS, CB, RB, WR
The James Conner signing shouldn't prevent the Cardinals from selecting a RB in this draft. But it probably stops them from getting one in Round 1. The Cardinals are in a win-now window with Kyler Murray entering Year 3 but their defense isn't up to snuff. Adding Watt and getting back Chandler Jones will help, but their secondary struggled for much of the year because Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker can't do it all. Horn will join Super Bowl saver Malcolm Butler and Robert Alford in the CB room, but both of them are only on 1-year deals.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: OT Tevin Jenkins, Oklahoma St
Team Needs: CB, FS, RT; Team Wants: WR, OLB, NCB
I am between Parsons and Jenkins for the Raiders. Jenkins is the pick because Parsons is gone. It seems like NFL teams have Tevin as their last Round 1 graded tackle. Now that doesn't mean there won't be more drafted in the 1st. The tackle position is always inflated so guys get pushed up even if they aren't as polished. Jenkins is "Raider Tough". That old stigma that the Raiders like to play dirty and through the whistle is exactly Jenkins. He can learn from a guy like Incognito, who has no penchant for taking it easy on young rookies.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, WR, OLB, EDGE; Team Wants: TE, OG, S, C
I had an epiphany on Monday night about the Dolphins draft plans. The last time the Dolphins coached in the Senior Bowl, 85% (random number but I remember it was all but 1 or 2) of our rookies drafted came from that game. With the Dolphins having needs at RB, WR, LB, EDGE, and iOL, who does that mean we will be looking at. Well, Devonta Smith and Najee Harris both attending the Senior Bowl though they didn't play. Those are really the only 1st round guys. Landon Dickerson (also didn't play but he was there) is gaining major 1st round buzz (spoiler) but he could be an option at 36. Other centers include Creed Humphrey and Quinn Meinerz. For LBs and EDGEs, we will probably look at guys later on in the draft on Day 2 and 3 like Cam Sample (Tulane), Boogie Basham (Wake Forest), Quincy Roche (Miami), Jonathon Cooper (Ohio St), Elerson Smith (No Iowa), Payton Turner (Houston), Derrick Barnes (Purdue). The Dolphins (and Panthers) will utilize the knowledge they gained from the prospects there. No other teams got as up close a look as they did.
19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: OT/OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Team Needs: LB, LT; Team Wants: EDGE, FS, iOL
I've had a couple conversations with Sam Teets about Alijah Vera-Tucker. I just don't know where to place him. His arm length is so incredibly short at 32 1/8 that I just can't slot him in to play tackle anymore. But this is a predictive mock. Even though I would not put him at tackle, it doesn't mean someone won't try to force him into a round hole as a square peg. The good thing for Washington is they probably won't be able to pay OG Scherff again next year so AVT can fill in there.
20. CHICAGO BEARS: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Team Needs: WRx2, RT, SS; Team Wants: DT, QB, RG, CB
WR Anthony Miller is still technically employed by the Chicago Bears. I sense by May 2nd, he will not be. Allen Robinson accepted his $18M franchise tag in part due to the WRs largely striking out on the open market this offseason. Many don't believe he will sit out or be traded but I'm not confident he will be around this time next year. They need a successor. Bateman isn't as tall as ARob, but I believe he will play a similar role as a contested-catch winner.
21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: OT Sam Cosmi, Texas
Team Needs: CB, EDGEx2, LT; Team Wants: WR, LB
With some of the tackle prospects having very disappointing arm length measurements, you see the opposite side of the spectrum with Cosmi. Cosmi does hit the 33-inch threshold and he is also 6-7!!! There aren't many players in the NFL that are that height but the player he would be replacing (Anthony Castonzo) was also 6-7. A lot of teams have specific prototypes about certain positions and we can't be certain what teams deem acceptable or not. But his rare size cannot be overlooked.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Team Needs: CB or NCB, TE, WR, RT, SS; Team Wants: EDGE, NT, RG
Farley was a top 12 pick for much of the pre-draft process and then the injury concerns came up again. I would not be surprised if we start to hear that he is completely off of teams' boards as we approach the draft. However, if a team medically clears him (which independent NFL doctors did at the NFL Combine recheck last week), he has traits and measurables that could make him look like the steal of the draft. I think this pick comes down to a CB or a WR like Elijah Moore.
23. NEW YORK JETS: CB Greg Newsome Jr, Northwestern
Team Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, CB, NCB, RB; Team Wants: QB, WR, OLB, C, CB
This Jets pick is going on the defensive side of the ball, I can say with almost certainty. Therefore, place all your bets on them to take an offensive player. At this point in the draft, we are at the last batch of CB and EDGE prospects that I really trust. The Jets went out and signed EDGE Carl Lawson and EDGE Vinny Curry but didn't do anything in the CB market. Newsome should be able to run both man and zone concepts with Saleh's defense.
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama
Team Needs: RB, C, LG, NCB, CB, LT, EDGE, ILB; Team Wants: QB
I told you I am hearing the round 1 buzz. The way I see it is this. If Dickerson was healthy, he would be picked about 10 spots before this. I understand that he isn't healthy and that is why some people think he is a 2nd round guy, on top of the fact that center just isn't that treasured. Dickerson should be an exception though. He fits perfectly with the Steelers beefy OL and could play at either center or guard for them, and they may need that versatility considering the current state of their OL. Dickerson was just doing cartwheels a few weeks ago. Put all of this together and I don't think he makes it past 36 at the very latest.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from LAR): OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
Team Needs: QB, FS, DT, iOL; Team Wants: OT, TE, EDGE, RB
My whole entire plan for Jacksonville's 2nd pick was to try to find players that Ohio St offered scholarships to because of Urban Meyer. (We saw that Matt Rhule loved Temple players last year or people he was affiliated with from college.) It is a lot of players but when looking through the lens of 1st-2nd round players that also fit any of the needs/wants I came up with Liam Eichenberg. I don't think Liam will end up working out at tackle, but I don't think they need him to. Next season they should be looking at a few open spots on the OL and he should slot in nicely at guard. Also, Trevon Moehrig was not offered by Ohio St.
26. CLEVELAND BROWNS: EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn St
Team Needs: EDGEx2, OLB, ILB; Team Wants: WR, DT
The board actually works very favorably for the Browns who need EDGE and LB help desperately. With how deep and talented the majority of their positions are, I don't see how they could go to any other position. I am looking for 4-3 EDGEs and LBs for the Browns so it takes out guys like Ojulari, Ossai, Tryon. As for LBs, Jamin Davis, JOK and Zaven Collins will all demand respect here, but with the way they have been poking around at Clowney, I think they realize how important this EDGE position is.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Team Needs: RT, WR, EDGE; Team Wants: FS, C
My instincts tell me Ojulari should go higher than 27. A bendy EDGE rusher that can also stop the run is so trendy in the NFL. Every team wants one because they can single-handedly stop a play. They don't need to be schemed up to get pressure. Ojulari is that type of guy. But the amount of 3-4 teams out there is about half that of 4-3 teams. The amount of 3-4 teams that will ask their EDGE rushers to drop in coverage is most of them and Ojulari doesn't do that or at least he wasn't asked. He would fit perfectly in Baltimore. Other fits could be the Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Patriots or Giants. This is his floor.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Team Needs: ILB, EDGE, CB, WR; Team Wants: TE, DT
I already put it in the intro. This won't happen. Mac will be taken before Pick 28. I am trying to get more picks right in the middle because taking a QB early will push other players down the board that I don't think should be there and then I get suckered into a false sense of security and I need to go to the panic room to calm down. There are very few teams I see Mac Jones actually being taken by and this is a real reason I had him falling. The Panthers are a team that would have taken him but they are out. SF, NE, NO, CHI, PIT, WFT, MIN are really the only teams I foresee as possibilities. If it comes down to those teams and I think SF goes with a mobile QB, where does Mac go? New Orleans makes a TON of sense as a trade-up candidate. He fits exactly what this offense likes to do with its quick rhythm game and he won't have to start right away. FYI, I nailed the Jordan Love to Green Bay thing last year.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS: CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
Team Needs: WR, C, ILB, CB; Team Wants: RT, NCB, DT
Last year, we witnessed a big flaw in Kevin King's game which was staying in man coverage on deep patterns. They resigned him but I would be shocked if Green Bay doesn't look to upgrade on him in the draft. Stokes is one of the fastest corners in this class. WRs are readily available in later rounds, but I believe they need a couple of impact players at C, CB, and LB before WR if they want to make another Super Bowl run with Rodgers.
30. BUFFALO BILLS: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Team Needs: NCB; Team Wants: DT, EDGE
I have a hard time seeing Rousseau dropping all the way out of the 1st round, but I do realize I am higher on him than most NFL teams. Daniel Jeremiah and other sites have him either barely clinging to a Round 1 spot or in the 2nd altogether. He would have really benefitted from playing in 2020 and he also didn't have a great workout, but he does have the explosiveness and size you hope for with an EDGE. Buffalo likes having a beefy DL and Rousseau can play a versatile role for them, lining up on the inside and outside.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota St
Team Needs: LT, EDGE, ILB, WR; Team Wants: WR, OLB
There is no shot I get any of these late picks correct but here is my thinking. Unless the Chiefs signed LG Joe Thuney to play tackle (FYI he was listed on the transaction wire as a tackle/guard) then they will need to select a LEFT tackle here. Because a few of the potential tackles like AVT, Eichenberg, and Mayfield all came in with very short arm lengths, I don't envision the Chiefs getting a guy who MIGHT be a guard. Radunz is a tackle, he just played at a smaller school. However, we have seen positive transitions between the small school OL who dominated at the Senior Bowl to the NFL. Radunz was the MVP of the Senior Bowl.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss
Team Needs: Backup QB, KR; Team Wants: FS, C, CB, P
Antonio Brown is asking for too much money but the Bucs want to bring him back. I wouldn't necessarily call Brown a slot. That is more of Godwin's role. But Godwin is also able to play on the outside opposite Evans. Put Godwin outside and throw Moore inside and the only thing stopping this offense is Tom Brady when his arm needs to get cut off. Moore is the best true slot prospect in this draft (Waddle can play on the outside as well as the slot) and we know how much Tom loves his slot WR from his days in New England.
Comments
Post a Comment