Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for... the NFC + AFC East - 1/29/21
I've got a new series idea for all of you. Every offseason, we are bombarded with mock drafts and guesses for where the top NFL Free Agents will sign once the league year opens in mid-to-late March. I love it all and count me among the people that have made that content in the past. But you know one of the things that really grinds my gears? "Team Needs". Creating mock drafts and trying to fit free agents with teams is hard enough and it always seems like whenever I take a look at the listed "team needs", they aren't always accurate. I started paying attention to it especially last year when people were mocking WRs to Miami in the 1st round and listing it as their #1 need. Miami didn't even take a WR in the draft last year (they traded for Lynn Bowden later and selected RB Malcolm Perry).
My point in this 4-week series is to get into the nitty-gritty of what teams want (where they want to upgrade) vs what teams need. I will look through the lenses of ideal roster construction, available cap space, players that I do or do not believe will be resigned, and more. I will be using these 4 articles as a base for my mock drafts. The only issue I know I will run into, especially with this first article, is that by the time March rolls around rosters will look different than they do today because of players resigning, being franchise-tagged, or players choosing to test the market. I won't update the articles after the fact, but I do retain the right to change my team needs as we continue on our march towards the Draft. With all of that being said... Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for the NFC + AFC East.
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NFC East Team Needs
Let's start in Big D. I mentioned in last Friday's article that I expect Dak to be resigned because if they don't they would be idiots. And while I do think Jerry can be an idiot, I don't believe he can be this dumb. So I'm not even going to entertain that supposed need.
Besides Dak, the Cowboys aren't too bad in terms of pending FAs. They will need to draft or get a backup QB unless they liked what they saw from Ben Dinucci or Garrett Gilbert because Dalton is free. But two places that they have some depth players they may lose are at corner and the OL. Additionally, these are two places where the Cowboys need an infusion of top, young talent. Zack Martin and La'el Collins are the only good players on this OL anymore. Tyron Smith is too hurt/old to play a full season and they had a terrible time trying to replace Travis Frederick after losing him to earlier retirement last year. Addressing tackle and center are essential.
Moving back to the defensive side, I mentioned cornerback earlier. They drafted Diggs out of Alabama last year in the 2nd round. Cornerback is one of the toughest positions to have early success as a rookie and Diggs was no exception as he struggled early on. He turned some corners (tehe) but I will need to see what he has this year to determine if he needs to be upgraded. Regardless of that, they need to add 2-3 corners this offseason even if they resign some of their guys. You can never have too many corners. Staying in the secondary, the Cowboys have their starting Free Safety as an impending FA. This was already a position of weakness and a likekly spot to look for an upgrade.
The last important imprending FA is DL Tyrone Crawford. He has played in the interior or on the edge in his long career. His age and current $9M contract make a future deal less likely to happen, but both positions need to be filled. The Cowboys were good for a couple years not too long ago because they were beasts in the trenches. If they want to make another run, that is where they need to spend their resources. The good news if they do have a little bit of cap space to be able to sign Dak and, if they move some money around, another valuable piece in FA.
Team Needs: CB, EDGE, OT, C, FS
Team Wants: TE, Backup QB, LB, SS
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Philadelphia... the city of brotherly love and everyone else. The Eagles are in a bit of a rough spot. And when I say bit, I mean $50M over the expected cap. It's OK tho, at least they don't have a QB controversy.
First I need to play a little bit of GM and cut some players to save some money so I can find what holes need to be filled. I kinda wish I didn't have the Eagles in this first week because I know I'll get some of these wrong. I won't trim the roster all the way down to save $50M, but here are guys I would cut and how much will be saved if they do.
Marquise Goodwin ($4.5M) (he signed in the 2020 offseason and opted out due to covid, never played with the eagles)
Desean Jackson (saves $10M, still owed $5M in dead cap=$5M in overall savings)
Derek Barnett ($10M) (former 1st round pick, didn't do enough in 4 years to deserve staying on for $10M IMO)
Zach Ertz (saves $12M, still owed $7M in dead cap=$5M in overall savings) (I'm not sure if someone will trade anything for him, but that route would be best)
They are going to need to do much more than that, but that gets you to about halfway there and I didn't even mention Alshon Jeffrey which I just don't know what to do with. That is at least 3 pass catchers that the Eagles will need to replace. WR is at the top of the board as far as a need. The tackle combo that the Eagles have is actually incredibly underrated, but unfortunately both Lane Johnson and Andre Dillard missed a lot of time in 2020. However, the Center and RG need upgrades. Kelce is their long-time center, who has more dead cap than what he is owed for 2021 if they were to cut him. I'm not sure if he stays or not but his play has deteroirated.
The Eagles secondary is still a mess but signing Slay in the offseason was a big deal. He just looked so bad because he was set up for failure. If they can get a good #2 to pair on the opposite side that would be big. Also, we need to set them up with a good nickel corner or box safety that can cover those possession pass catchers (slots and TEs). Their run defense is still great, but I think they could use a modern day sideline to sideline LB that is good in pass coverage.
Team Needs: WR, WR, CB, LB
Team Wants: Backup TE, C, G. SS
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Ronald Darby is their #2 Corner and is a FA this offseason. I'm not sure if they will find a starter cheaper than the $3M they paid Darby last year, but I do think they can find someone better. Also on the defense, WSH is going to lose quite a bit of LB and EDGE depth this offseason. The notable player is long-time Football Teamer (LOL) Ryan Kerrigan. I don't think the team will resign him unless it is very team friendly. Their starters are set there but I wouldn't be surprised if they dip their toe in for depth. As far as LBs, it feels like they have a few thumpers but not someone who can cover a RB. Also, Landon Collins has the 2nd highest cap hit at almost $19M this year... he isn't that great. I don't think they will move on or try to upgrade from him, but I was surprised to see that.
Team Wants: Slot WR, EDGE, LT, S
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Be real with me... How much did I tilt you because I didn't go in alphabetical order? Oh, you didn't notice??? Ok... how tilted are you now?
The Geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-Men have assembled their team quite poorly from my vantage point. The good news is that the past 2 years they have used their top 10 selections on cornerstone positions, QB and LT. The problem is they selected Daniel Jones and Andrew Thomas. I am not going to bury DJ yet, but if he doesn't show up this year it is time to replace him. As for Andrew Thomas, I was kinda surprised he struggled in year 1. Some thought he was a little small for a tackle coming out of college, but he had great success at the position for years in the SEC. Hopefully, he improves in year 2. As for the rest of the OL, they got some brutes. A lot of younger guys and Kevin Zeitler. They desparately need to invest in the RT spot, unless they think that Nate Solder will move there, as their starter wasn't that good and is now a FA. Solder signed a few years back and is the 2nd highest contract on their team, but has been hurt and played poorly since moving away from Bill Cheaterchick.
The Giants will get Saquon back in 2021, which will be great for both the running and passing game. However all of the other RBs on team are pending FAs and they will need to grab some cheaper vets or draft one later on. I don't expect they will get much work in behind Barkley though. One thing I could see them investing in with some real resources is a backup QB or a QB to bring competition. Colt McCoy is a FA and there are some interesting names out there for a prove-it deal. One last thing for the offense. It seems like the Giants have 2 players of the same exact mold in Shepherd and Tate and then Slayton as a deep option. I know they have Evan Engram as well, but he will be a FA next year. I'd love to see a big guy for DJ.
The Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year in covering RBs out of the backfield. That is because they signed Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell, two players known for being bad at that, in 2019. Thankfully, Fackrell is a FA, so they need a rangy LB now more than ever, more so than PHI or WSH. The Giants will also be losing Leonard Williams this offseason after tagging him last year. It seems like Leonard is gonna chase the money and while the Giants could certainly use him, I don't think it works out. Dalvin Tomlinson, their Nose Tackle, will also be a FA but will probably be a little more cost efficient. Still, losing Williams who was their top pass rusher (and he is not an EDGE player) is a big deal because they did not get a lot of help in the pressure making category from their other DL. They also need another boundary corner to help out James Bradberry. The importance of having 2 good corners has never been higher.
Look, I love special teams and recognize the importance of it... but the Giants are spending $7M on a punter and a kicker in 2021. They are currently over the cap by $3M. I'm sorry but just get some undrafted kids every few years unless they are pro bowl players and let's move. Lots of headaches on tap for a team right up against the cap. Damn, I'm a poet and I did not even know that I was in fact a poet.
Team Needs: Backup QB, RT, EDGE, CB, LB
Team Wants: Backup RB, Cheaper K and P, DT
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AFC East Team Needs
I (don't) want to be a part of it. New York, New York. Get it... cause 2 New York teams in a row? Oh yeah, I tilted you before just to make that shitty pun. That is why I pay you $10 a month to read these premium articles. Talk about putting content behind a paywall.
I already gave my prediction that I think Darnold will still be with Gang Green in 2021, and they will not pick up his 5th year option, so he will walk after this season. But by no means am I dumb and think they will not be either selecting a QB or trying to trade for Watson. I expect Darnold will play a few games early on in the season, and then they will bring out their rookie QB to get his feet wet. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL on paper. Looking at their roster there are only 3 players I think would start on most other teams, Crowder, Becton, Q Williams. Their next best players, Maye and Poole, are both FAs and I don't think they will remember their time in NY that fondly. The upside to all of this is they have $63M in cap space, 3rd most in the NFL, and plenty of draft capital the next 2 years to try to course correct. They have the LT in place which is great. I am of the camp that you should wait to get the QB until the team is filled out but when you have the #2 pick in a Draft class like this, you select the future of your franchise. One thing the Jets need to make sure they DO NOT DO is try to fix everything in one offseason. I know you don't have a RB, that doesn't mean you select one with your other 1st round pick because Etienne is available when you have so many more important positions to take care of. Take a RB late and hope you get lucky. Also, you already have Perriman and Crowder to help the rookie, but you need to keep building the trenches. Each spot on the OL besides LT can be upgraded.
As far as the defensive side, rip it down to the studs. Quinnen is the only player that is safe. Poole is one of the better nickel corners if you can get him to stay. Maye is a decent, but not great safety. They got some production from some "unknown" players this year but it doesn't mean they can't be upgraded. Basham(FA), Hewitt(FA), and Bless Austin come to mind as players that had decent years but probably won't make it all the way through the rebuild. Make no mistake, this is going to be a 2-3 year rebuild. Take your time and temper your expectations. Trust me Jets fans... I know this feeling.
Team Needs: RT, LG, RG, EDGE, LB, CB(x2), S, Nickel CB, Everything
Team Wants: QB, RB
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DAAAA Bills. So Josh Allen is a player. Alright Josh good for you. Let's see you do it again.
One of the things that really failed Buffalo in their playoff run this year was their lack of production from RBs between the 20s. Josh was so good that running wasn't necessary. Singletary and Moss are very young players though and should be given another year to prove themselves. But if we are trying to find holes in the roster it is possibly an upgradeable position (especially since Josh gets his fair share of rushing yards). Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, the Bills have a couple expiring contracts for Feliciano and Williams, both guards. Feliciano is a starter for them and I expect they will try to retain him but it is something to keep an eye on as they are currently just over the cap. Getting some depth along the OL will be important at all positions, but the OL played great this year from what I saw.
Their defense has an all-star cast in the secondary between Poyer, Hyde and White. But they need to seriously take a look at investing opposite of White as Norman and Wallace (their 2nd and 3rd CB) are both FAs this year. Beyond that, they may be able to use another LB to supplant Milano if they resign him this offseason. The one spot where they do have some age is at EDGE, although they just added a few younger players these past 2 drafts. They are not losing almost any quality starters and are definitely one of the most well constructed rosters. The Bills will be around for a long time.
Team Needs: CB, LB
Team Wants: RB, LG, RG, EDGE
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DAAAA Bill. Dude I am on fire with these puns. The Patriots finally did not have a winning season. The sad thing is I think they will rebound a little bit depending on their QB play. They lost quite a few people to opt-outs in 2020 and I'm sure Bill and the team will be pissed at their performance. That being said, there are holes aplenty on this roster.
First, let's knock out the easy one. QB Cam Newton is no longer on the team and I don't think he will be returning. I could see Bill trying to go all-in on Stafford or one of these QBs out on the market since Bill is getting up there in age. But beyond that if Jimmy G becomes available? Who knows really. The Patriots are a team that doesn't have any playmakers that would entice any incoming QB to join the team. Let's talk more about those lack of playmakers. RBs James White and Rex Burkhead (their best pass catching backs) are FAs with Michel and Harris (both not pass catchers) as the remaining guys. N'Keal Harry has struggled to put it together his first 2 years, so much so that a guy named Jakobi Meyers came out of nowhere and stole his job. They drafted 2 TEs in 2020 so the court hasn't come back with a ruling on them yet, but they weren't given much opportunity for success last season.
As for the big bois, Joe Thuney and David Andrews were their starting guard and center last season. Thuney was tagged and Andrews probably isn't deserving of the tag. Bill has normally let his veteran OL walk a year early (rather then waiting for them to start sucking while on the Patriots), but he has never had the cap space to resign these players, like he now has. It will be interesting to see what he does because both will get paid this offseason by someone. I am marking those positions down as Needs as I don't expect they will return.
For the defense, they will get back LB Dont'a Hightower and S Patrick Chung from the opt-out list, which is big for them. But they will likely have to pay JC Jackson, their 2nd corner who had an amazing 9 INTs in 2020, as he is a restricted FA. This defense is still set-up for success but the Patriots were more susceptible to the run this year than in years past. I can see them trying to beef up their EDGE or LB positions to be able to fill the run more consistently.
Team Needs: QB, LG, C, LB, WR
Team Wants: Pass Catching RB, WR, EDGE
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Finally, my beloved/hated Dolphins. The circus around the team this offseason is weird and not about how bad we are which is refreshing. But it also gives me terrible anxiety about the future because success is always followed by failure. Wooh! I'm fun to be around!
QB is not a need. Tua is our QB in 2021. Unless he isn't... In reality, our QB situation is solved at least for 2 more years with Tua and we evaluate from there or we can get Watson and have him for 10 years with the QB position solved. Regardless, we aren't in the QB market. As for every other position on offense... RB and WR are obvious needs. Parker is what I would call a WR1 but without the numbers. He is the guy who would fill the WR1 position on your roster because he looks like him, but he will never be the most targeted guy on the team. I'm not sure if he would be that way on other teams, but he just doesn't create any separation. I expect we will completely recreate both the RB and WR room. Brieda and Hollins are FAs, I think we will cut Jakeem (our returner) and Hurns + Wilson (both opted out) and only keep Gaskin, Ahmed, Parker, and Bowden. My expectation is draft a RB and WR with the top 4 picks (1st+2nd round picks). Draft another WR on Day 3 and pay for a reliable veteran in FA. Tua needs playmakers that will be able to create separation. Geisicki, similar to Parker, has this problem too. Both Mike and Devante are great at 50/50 balls, which Tua can throw. He just needs some easy throws, as well.
As for the OL, you will hear a lot of chatter about how poor they were. It's true they weren't great. Well 3 of them were rookies that actually did a lot better than everyone was expecting. I actually think the positions we are questioning the most are the guard and center which did not have the rookies, though I wouldn't put it past us to select a tackle. Our starting center is a FA and he did well for us in 2020, but I have a feeling we will look to the draft (especially since there were a few nice Senior Bowl centers that we coached) to replace him rather than resign.
It was weird having a good defense. It didn't feel natural. Probably because while we had a good defense in some categories, we were awful in others. Got a lot of turnovers, played great on 3rd down and the RZ. That tells me we got good pressure when it matters, but we need more juice on early downs to not get into the RZ. Getting another EDGE rusher to supplement Ogbah as well as a rangy LB (think Lavonte David) to be able to stop the run will be positions to upgrade. Safety will also be in the mix even though we drafted a kid last year. We could use a true Center-fielder... we need a Minkah Fitzpatrick... oh wait. Overall, unless we cut some players there aren't any true needs on defense.
Team Needs: RB, WR(x3), C
Team Wants: TE, OG, OT, S, EDGE, LB
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