Monday Minute: Sam Darnold Traded Edition - 4/12/21
The NFL has entered a period where 99% of what is going on is Draft speculation and opinion. Not much else is happening. We still have a few pro days going on and some schools are even having two pro days to give themselves more exposure I guess? I don't really know why, but Ohio St and North Dakota St both have a 2nd Pro Day coming up. Most of the Pro Day circuit is done though, so these Monday Minutes that were normally chalked with a whole bunch of goodies, prior to last week, have been dull.
There were 5 different newsworthy bits I do want to get into this week. Though, it is really just one big topic and 4 one-liners. Since we know the big topic is about the Sam Darnold trade, I will save that for last. Let's get on with it.
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Quick Hitters
I've only been talking about signings that I feel have scratched off a need for a team. The Chiefs made a really low-key signing with C Austin Blythe. He was a starter for the Rams the past few years and was solid. Nothing fantastic, but good enough. I think they can use their top draft resources on a LT and defense combo rather than drafting a center high this year. Though, I wouldn't rule out them still trying to upgrade at that position.
The Seahawks are planning on at least one key offensive player staying for the extended future. WR Tyler Lockett signed a 4-year $69M (nice) extension that will keep him with the team until 2025, when he is 33. The extension brought his 2021 cap number down a bit. His $37M in guaranteed money is pretty well spread out so getting out of his contract won't be without some headaches.
The Bengals released RB Giovani Bernard and one of the scariest mustaches in the NFL is without a job. I don't know why everyone loves it so much. It legit just looks out of place on his face. As far as football goes, this doesn't affect the Bengals too much but it does have large fantasy implications. Gio always ate away at Joe Mixon's touches and in the 4 games Gio missed (since Joe was drafted), Joe averaged 17 PPG. This is a big help to his fantasy stock if they don't get a replacement.
The Panthers are having a great offseason. They addressed and resigned key free agents like RT Taylor Moton. They have moved on from some veterans that weren't playing up to expectation and they signed some other free agents at a good cost like CB AJ Bouye. Bouye hasn't been the same player from his Houston and early Jacksonville days. But I don't think the Panthers are expecting elite CB1 production from him. They will still look at the corner position in the draft, but they at least have a starter in Bouye.
Nothing to do with the NFL but this is my blog so I write what I want. As a sports fan, I admit Golf isn't in my top 5 favorite sports to watch. But every single April, I fall prey to the wonders of Augusta, Georgia. Attending the Masters is definitely on my Bucket List of things to do. I know Golf isn't for everyone but just knowing that the Masters is on instantly makes me want to go torture myself on the links. OK, that's my sidebar. Returning to your regularly scheduled programming.
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Sam Darnold Trade
The bad part about having a weekly news recap article drop on Mondays is when big news drops on Monday. The Sam Darnold trade seems like ancient history now but I really want to touch on it because it has a lot of ramifications.
First, the terms of the trade. The Panthers trade a 2021 6th, 2022 2nd and 4th to the Jets for Sam Darnold. The Panthers then exercised the 5th-year option on Darnold which makes his remaining contract approximately 2 years $23M.
Alright, right off the bat this should firmly take the Panthers out of the QB market unless Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawrence fall to 8. Carolina would have been looking at the 4th or 5th best QB if they stayed at 8 and may have needed to move higher to secure their guy. The biggest challenge for Carolina was that when the 49ers moved up to 3. that made 4-7 as the trade up spots for QBs with only 2 QBs left. The 4th pick is held by Atlanta, who is in their division, and would NEVER trade with a divisional opponent to allow them to get a QB. Absolutely zero chance. So that means that if Atlanta (or another team traded to 4 and) selected a QB, Carolina would be looking at the 5th best possible QB and still may have to move up to select one if another team traded up. What if they don't like that 5th guy? That's called a strikeout. This Sam Darnold trade was the move they needed to make to secure a QB.
Let's talk about compensation next. A trade to move up to 3 with Miami from 8 would have cost at least one future 1st and at least a 2nd round pick but probably more given what SF offered. Instead they traded only one top 100 pick and got a QB who won't have the same issues a rookie QB normally faces (college -> pros adjustments like protections, locker room dynamics, etc). I don't know if this is a good or bad trade yet. No one does. The compensation is very similar to what Miami gave Arizona for Josh Rosen, who was selected just a few picks after Darnold. Neither have been good in the NFL but the dysfunction around both QBs is very interesting and similar. For the Jets, a 2nd round pick is as good as they could possibly get so I would count this a W. He didn't work out and that's ok but he can't be around when Zach Wilson gets into town. For Carolina, I will leave judgment until the summary.
Sam Darnold's contract is another big piece of this puzzle. Carolina immediately hit the option for Sam's 5th year, which was the right thing to do given the compensation. Before I saw they had exercised the option and I was just looking at the picks given, my first thought was this was going to be a 2 year tryout. That 2nd round pick next year is significant because it probably was going to be included in a trade for a QB this year whether it be Stafford or in the draft. That pick would have been very important in the event they needed to trade up for a QB in 2022. I don't think the Panthers are bad enough that they will be selecting in the top 5 next season. Going back on topic, 2 years and $23M is an extremely good price for a QB in 2021. Chew on this, last offseason the Panthers gave QB Teddy Bridegwater a 3 year $63M deal with $33M of it guaranteed (more on that later). I think everyone knew what kind of player Teddy was this far into his career and how he was limited. Is Darnold better than Teddy? I'll leave that up to your opinion. But whoever you think is better... is it a negligible difference? I'd say no.
A lot of people have given an assumption that we know what Darnold is. Some think he would be the 2nd best QB in this draft if he were a rookie. Others think he is completely useless. But honestly, we know next to nothing on this kid. His first year he was... well a rookie. The fact that we place so much blame and give so much success to these 1st year kids is nonsense to me. They don't know what they are doing. It is so different from the college game and they have had no breaks since July the previous year. They go from the college season to NFL Draft prep to rookie minicap to training camp and then the season. Give the expectations in year 1 a break will ya? His 2nd and 3rd year were ruined by Adam Gase. As a Dolphins fan, I know what the Adam Gase experience is like. His offense limits the QB so much because everything is on the onus of his "system" beating the defense. But his system is run routes short of the sticks and have a playmaker break a tackle. It doesn't give me a picture of what Sam can do. I am going into his Carolina days with very dull expectations, I will admit. But Joe Brady is going to give Darnold options that he has not seen before. He deserves more than just 17 games (so weird) to prove what he has. My big worry for Sam is that if he is a big success, then he will be without Joe Brady in the future because he will be a HC somewhere.
I mentioned earlier in this article how the Panthers had such a good offseason with some of their signings and then I really like this move to get Sam (not meaning price, just a whollistic view). Let's look back to last year when Carolina basically said "we are tanking" from January to March with the mass exodus of the talent on their roster. It was the big hot topic of the offseason. Everyone knew that Carolina would be trading back to collect more picks and they weren't going to sign anyone in free agency so they could 'Lose for Lawrence'. The jersey swaps were going around even then. Then free agency hits... and the Panthers sign Teddy Bridgewater to a $21M annual deal over 3 seasons. No way another team was offering him that much and for that long. And even if someone else was, are you seriously going to tell me that he ever proved he could be worth even half that? $10M annually over 2 years? Jameis Winston was worth $20M less per year than Teddy Bridgewater in 2020. Is this a joke? The Panthers 2020 offseason set their team back until 2023 if Sam Darnold doesn't work out. Let's do the math.
Teddy Bridgewater (3y) + Talent Deduction in 2020 offseason + No trade back for additional picks in 2020 draft - 2022 2nd Round Pick + Sam Darnold (2y) = 2023 Rookie QB
I mentioned it in the math problem but on top of the Teddy signing, not trading back in the 2020 draft really screwed them for this year. Imagine if they had an extra 1st or 2nd this year. They could have gotten to 3. They could have gotten Stafford. Instead... they have Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater on the same team.
The expectation right now is that Teddy will be released or traded. There will be zero teams interested in Teddy Bridgewaters contract, even though there is speculation that teams are calling. He will either be released or serve as a backup for Sam. The big issue is that Teddy is going to cost the team $20M if he is cut today, which would save the team $3M. Sam Darnold's 2021 cap hit is $4.7M, so they would be at a net loss of almost $2M if they do that. If they release him with a Post June 1 cut, it would be $15M in dead cap hit in 2020 and $5M in 2021, but they would save $3.3M this year if you include Darnold's cap hit.
To wrap this puppy up, Sam needed to be traded and Jets fans should be happy for him that he is going to be able to start somewhere else, as they move on to another rookie. They should also be pleased with the compensation they receieved back. Panthers fans should be at least optimistic, but I don't know about excited. We don't know enough about Sam to say if he is good or bad but at least he will be affordable compared to Teddy. Giving up only a 6th this year and a future 2nd + 4th is a very fair price to pay for a 23 year old QB. If the Panthers somehow unlock Sam similar to how the Titans did with Tannehill (what I like to call "The Gase Effect"), the fan base won't be able to contain themselves. The fact is that Sam has never been surrounded with players like DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey before and we already know he has a connection with Robby Anderson.
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TOP 10 Teams that Can't Afford to Screw Up this Draft
- San Francisco 49ers - They really sold out the future farm to get their QB whoever he may be. The 49ers may not move on from Jimmy this year, but he won't be around next year to save the day. If the new kid flops, SF is screwed.
- Philadelphia Eagles - How well can Roseman surround Hurts in his 1-year tryout? The trade down to 12 is big for the future of the team, but I feel like Hurts is doomed to failure as of right now. He needs weapons.
- Green Bay Packers - The Rodgers era seems like it is coming to a close with the Jordan Love selection but the team still is in a Super Bowl window. Can they draft impact players like the Bucs did with Wirfs/Winfield?
- Atlanta Falcons - I know this is the first year for the new regime, but if they don't pick a QB it will be interesting to see how/when they move on from Ryan. Getting more draft picks has to be the play if they pass on a QB.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - The final year of the Big Ben era with no replacement on deck and a ton of holes to fill for the last stand. How the Steelers approach this draft could determine their success for years to come. QB? OL? Defensive replacements?
- Los Angeles Rams - As they continue to play studs and duds with their contracts, they need to continue to hit on these young players in the draft. They have a few holes that opened up because they couldn't afford to pay players that are now on other teams.
- Kansas City Chiefs - Their success will always be driven by Mahomes and Reid, but the talent around him is dwindling as the Chiefs begin their own studs and duds campaign. The Chiefs have a few holes to fill and are no longer the most complete team in the AFC (BUF).
- Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks haven't been close to winning a Super Bowl in years but Russell always has them in contention. If this is the last season in the PNW, they need to pour everything into one last run.
- Houston Texans - Houston doesn't get their first pick until 67 in the 3rd round, but they have 7 other picks from round 4-7. They are in full rebuild mode and need to find cheap, young players that can help fill out their roster on Day 3.
- Denver Broncos - I am assuming Denver passes on a QB again this year, unless one falls to them that they like. They haven't been very aggressive for rookie QBs in the past. If they pass, they need to go all out on defense so that they can get the QB next year.
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What are your thoughts on the Darnold trade? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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