Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for... the NFC + AFC North - 2/12/21
I hope you all enjoyed the first Mock Draft that released on Wednesday. If you missed it, please check it out here. These Offseason Needs articles are in direct correlation with those mocks. I am not basing my mocks on other peoples mocks or team needs. That isn't to say I don't pay attention to Draft Twitter to help form some of my own opinions, but you get the point.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** If you have read the articles about the East and South divisions, please note that the salary cap numbers were originally based off a lower number than what the salary cap is expected to come in at now. It is about a $5M difference. Any salary cap notes I make in the North or West articles are referencing the new number of $180M.
My point in this 4-week series is to get into the nitty-gritty of what teams want (where they want to upgrade) vs what teams need. I will look through the lenses of ideal roster construction, available cap space, players that I do or do not believe will be resigned, and more. I will be using these 4 articles as a base for my mock drafts. If you would like to read the article on the East Divisions, click here, and if you would like to read the article on the Southern Divisions, click here. Next week I will wrap up this series with the Western divisions. I won't update the articles after teams cut, franchise, or trade players, but I will be changing team needs in the mock drafts as teams change. With all of that being said... Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for the NFC + AFC North.
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NFC North Team Needs
A loyal reader of this column absolutely hates the Detroit Lions. The reason? Because they always suck. Keep in mind, he is a Jets fan and doesn't care at all about whether the Lions win or lose. Now imagine what it must be like to be an actual fan of the Lions... yikes. Hey, at least they have one thing going for them... they live in Detroit.
A lot of people are going to point the finger at Detroit and say they are the 2021 "tanking" team. I actually don't think so. We will see how they work this offseason, but I don't know if they actively start cutting players, like they probably should, to free up cap space for the future. I think this Lions team will be the "Cincinnati "of the season. Desperately trying to be competitive and holding on to any talent they can, all the while knowing that talent is not good enough.
To illustrate my point, let's take a look at their impending starting FAs. WR Marvin Jones (31), EDGE Everson Griffen (34), WR Danny Amendola (36), SS Duron Harmon (30), K Matt Prater (37), EDGE Romeo Okwara (26), LB Jarrad Davis (27), RT Oday Aboushi (30), RB Adrian Peterson (36), and WR Kenny Golladay (28). Let me tell you how many of these players are going to take a home-town discount. NONE. I wanted to highlight their ages because a lot of these guys have played more than 1 or 2 seasons in Detroit. They know happiness levels can only go up if they leave. To top it all off, the Lions have a modest $6M in cap space available
Peterson is the only player that has a quality backup because they drafted De'Andre Swift last year. He will have to carry this offense that is going to be entirely new besides him and a few pieces on the OL. Jared Goff won't know any different because it is all new to him too, but we will see if he is the long-term answer for Detroit (spoiler alert: he isn't good). I can very much see them using a high draft pick in 2021 on a QB like Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell (two QBs that are not of the same talent as this year's top 3). Another thing to note, as of this writing, the Lions WR highest on the depth chart is 5th-round rookie Quentez Cephus Jr. who was the 4th/5th WR in 2020. The expected decision Detroit will make is to franchise tag Kenny Golladay, but if they do that they need to try to trade him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If they let him walk this offseason, they will get a 3rd rounder in the 2022 draft in the form of a comp pick. Smart business would be to tag and trade, but I'm not sure how good Detroit is at smart business.
Taking a look at their OL, they actually have 2 pretty decent pieces in C Frank Ragnow and LT Taylor Decker. They paid wayyy too much to acquire a RG named Halapoulivaati Vaitai last offseason, but he can be moved on from next season. As bad as the rest of the team is... the OL room isn't actually in that bad of shape. They drafted a promising guard last season out of Ohio St and if they can replace the FA RT, this could be one of the better OL groups.
I mentioned this in a previous article, but Matt Patricia (Lions former coach) brought in a bunch of players from the Patriots style of defense in his tenure. He paid them a good amount of money and now he is gone. With him gone, the New England style of defense is thrown in the trash. These players that are known for being able to learn multiple defenses, but not necessarily mastering a single one, are likely going to struggle. Some will still play well, but a lot of defenses don't have uses for Nose Tackles or large EDGE defenders that are better at creating pressure when it is schemed up rather than having an arsenal of pass rush moves. We will see who sticks, but if there is a roster teardown I expect it to be from this side of the ball. Possible names to keep an eye on: NT Danny Shelton, EDGE Trey Flowers, CB Justin Coleman, and LB Jaime Collins.
Beyond them, the Lions have 3 of their top 7 highest paid contracts given out to CBs. Which is a good idea. The problem is they were either all hurt, or terrible, or terrible and hurt in 2020. Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman are the high paid vets and need to be better, but rookie Jeff Okudah gets a 1-year pass. The top 3 selected CB needs to show up this season though. The Lions had the 3rd most amount of pass yards given up in 2020, 2nd most to WRs. That being said the defense was swiss cheese to RBs as well. They gave up the 5th most rushing yards per game and 2nd most receiving yards to RBs. The defense needs a BIG talent infusion and fast.
Team Needs: WRx3, RT, EDGEx2, OLB
Team Wants: CB, EDGE, FS, SS, ILB, RG
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πNew men on the Minnesota Vikingsπ I had to OK... it's for the memes. 2018-19 were the Vikings years to make a run. They had the defense playing at a high level. 2 top WRs in Thielen and Diggs with one of the best RBs. When they didn't make the Super Bowl and they started to decide what to do next, trading Stefon Diggs and doubling down on Kirk Cousins was their brilliant plan. We want Case back.
Kirk Cousins is very famous for one thing. Not necessarily being good at football. But being good at making money. Kirk was drafted by Washington in the same class as RG3. When RG3 got hurt and lost his job, Cousins was there to supplant him. Eventually, RG3 was out of town and they wanted to pay Kirk, but also didn't really know if they had seen enough from him. So they gave him the franchise tag... twice. Guaranteed him $43M over 2 seasons. Then, Kirk went into FA and because he was a QB, he got the pick of his teams and could get whatever he demanded. So he signed a fully guaranteed 3-year $84M deal with the Vikings, who were thought to be a QB away from a title. They made the NFC Champ game a year before but haven't returned with Kirk. Recently, the Vikings resigned him to a 2 year deal for $33M per year... fully guaranteed. The lesson to be learned here is don't double down on Kirk Cousins. I don't care if it is a very oddly specific lesson. Just don't do it. QB is a position they should upgrade, but this year it isn't an option. Maybe next season.
I mentioned this in my Mock Draft 1.0 that came out on Wednesday, but the Vikings just cannot seem to fix their OL, specifically the interior. They were playing a rookie tackle (Ezra Cleveland) at guard last season and I expect he will be moved out to tackle in the future, but his development will be key to seeing which spot they need to specifically target on the OL. Their LT Riley Reiff is their best player up front, and outside of that everyone has been shoddy at best. Their C Garrett Bradbury was drafted in the 1st round in 2018, but has failed to live up to expectations. It is fair to say everyone besides Reiff could be upgraded.
The good thing about the Stefon Diggs traded was they shed some of the more expensive years on his contract and also got a cracked player in Justin Jefferson with the selection they acquired from the trade. This offense doesn't really use more than their two top WRs and Dalvin Cook and it seems to function alright, but Irv Smith hasn't really panned out as much as his high draft pick would suggest. I'll give him another year, but Kyle Rudolph isn't getting any younger either.
The Vikings started the 2020 season by putting Danielle Hunter on IR but also acquiring Yannick Ngakoue. Well, Danielle ended up playing zero snaps in 2020 and Yannick was traded midseason to Baltimore. Danielle is reported to have asked for a raise or to be traded during his injury-wriddled year. He is already the 2nd highest-paid player on the team and is about to enter the money-making years in terms of base salary. Of course, he could also be cut starting next year if things turn sour. He is easily the best remaining player on this defense, but the Vikings are already over the cap by $7M. This is something to monitor. Another one of the best players on the defense is S Anthony Harris who played on the Franchise Tag in 2020. I think the Vikings will try to retain him, especially since SS Harrison Smith is on the last year of his deal. Harrison can be cut and save $10M off the cap. Their 2 rookie cornerbacks Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler struggled early on in 2020, but Cam especially seemed to get into a rhythm near the end. If Harris returns, I expect this to be a very secondary group.
The place on defense that needs the most attention is the DL. EDGE especially if Hunter is traded. The DT spots need some younger/cheaper talent, but the pass rush was really lacking. This team is unique in the way that they are built, especially on offense. Most teams with these offensive weapons would need another playmaker, but I don't think that is the case here.
Team Needs: iOLx2, EDGE, FS
Team Wants: RT, iOL, DT
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Team Wants: CB, EDGE
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Last but not least, the tortured Packers. And by tortured I mean not at all tortured because they have gone from Bart Starr to Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers and have their next franchise QB already waiting. In fact, I'm not sure if they have ever started another QB besides them. If they are tortured by anything it is their cap room this offseason which is $28M over at the moment. With their next QB in waiting, the clock is ticking to see if they can win another one with Rodgers before he moves on.
The good thing is that the hardest part is done for GB. They have the MVP QB and they have an All-Pro level WR. They have an All-Pro LT to protect the MVP QB. They have 3 really good DL in the Smith Bros and Kenny Clark (who for my money is a top 3 DT) and an all-star young corner in Jaire Alexander. The foundation is amazingly talented, but there are some serious gaps in the middle of all this. Let's start with some guys who may be leaving in 2020 due to cap cuts or impending free agency. RB Aaron Jones, RB Jamaal Williams, CB Kevin King (good riddance), C Corey Linsley, WR Allen Lazard, and TE Robert Tonyan are all free agents. I expect they will try to resign Tonyan and have heard rumblings about Aaron Jones coming back. But Corey Linsley is the #1 Center in football and will have a big payday coming his way in free agency. AJ Dillon was drafted in the 2nd round to "replace" these two RBs, but I expect they will bring one back or draft another. And then Kevin King was over-drafted and overhyped all those years ago and obviously never lived up to it. (There was a craving for University of Washington CBs because Marcus Peters was fantastic as a rookie for the Chiefs in 2015. The next year Kevin King out of UW was drafted 33rd overall.) Jaire is a beast but GB badly needs an acceptable corner across from him for those shootouts that Rodgers tends to get in. They also need to upgrade the nickel corner position as Tom Brady singled out Sullivan more than a few times in the NFC Champ game.
They will need to shed some salary to be able to get under the cap. I'm not sure how they are going to get under without cutting someone valuable. I think we might see some restructured contracts similar to what the Saints did to try to keep Brees' Super Bowl window alive. Of those contracts that might be cuttable... ILB Christian Kirksey would save $5.5M, DE Dean Lowry would save $3M, OG Billy Turner would save $3.5M. Lowry is the most likely of that bunch as the other 2 are notable snap takers.
There are few positions that truly could use an upgrade for the Packers, but I will mention a couple. Kirksey was one of the starting ILBs and he wasn't particularly good in 2020. This position has been a torment for GB as they just can't seem to find the right guy. If there is a rangy ILB (Bolton would be perfect) available in the late 1st, this would make a lot of sense. The new DC for GB has used 3-4 and 4-3 schemes before. Depending on their preferred base defense, you may see them prioritize another ILB (on top of an upgrade of Kirksey) or another DT. Everyone is going to throw out WR as a need and while they could really use a speed boost, I did forget they will have Devin Funchess coming back this year. He isn't all-world by any means, but he is able to take the top off defenses. Losing Lazard means that they should want to replace him... but who knows if they will. Probably not. Last but not least, LG... Billy... Turner. You may have fooled everyone else Billy Turner... but I know the truth. I know that you hold all the time. I know that you allow far too many pressures. I know that you are not a talented offensive lineman, but instead are being masked by outstanding play on either side of you by Linsley and Bakhtiari. I will die knowing the truth.
There is a lot more nitpicking for the Packers than for teams like Detroit. I do that because with Detroit there are too many holes for me to just list them all. I need to do the most pressing needs and wants. But for the Packers, they have so much talent and are always competing for Super Bowls every year. Their needs and wants are much more defined and visible. I nitpick because they are good.
Team Needs: CB, TE, WR, C, ILB
Team Wants: RB, OG, NCB, ILB or DT
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AFC North Team Needs
The Bengals and the Lions in the same article. Two teams that just have proven they won't do what it takes to win. Marvin Lewis may not have been able to take this Bengals team over the hump, but I'll be damned if those Bengals teams didn't win some games. The only good thing that came out of firing him, and eventually hiring the worst coach in football, Zac Taylor, was being able to select Joe Burrow. The frustrating thing to me is that somehow Zac still has a job going into year 3 and if Burrow does well, Zac will get the fame. The kid got attached to McVay's name and got a job, but has a combined 25 losses in 2 seasons. Fire him.
Zac Taylor isn't even the worst part of this franchise though. Team Owner Mike Brown is also the General Manager and he is just awful. The team refused to trade AJ Green 3 different times with offers on the table and are now letting the broken-down man walk out of the building for free after he collected an $18M check from them last season. The team famously preferred that Carson Palmer retire than play for another team and lost out on possible compensation because they traded him mid-season. They are also very well known for not trading in the draft. They have their 7 given selections and stick to them. Every competitive team has gotten to where they are because they have gone out and made a bold move that ended up working. That is why the Bengals are doomed to fail even with Joe Burrow.
Rant over. Let's get to their roster.
First, the team has plenty of cap space to work with ($37M), although that would mean players want to sign in Cincy. They aren't losing too many notable free agents because they didn't have many notable players to begin with. Although, I will mention that EDGE Carl Lawson and CB William Jackson both are very underrated players and should command some money on the FA market.
Last year, Cincy's offseason plan was to draft Joe and build up the defense. They drafted 2 rookie LBs and signed 2 corners (both from MIN ironically) Trae Waynes and Mackenzie Alexander. Trae was signed to a huge deal that he probably didn't deserve, based on his play, and Mack signed a 1 year deal and is now a FA. Trae will move to the #1 CB spot vacated by Jackson, but there is a huge hole at Nickel and #2 CB now. The team finally gave EDGE Carlos Dunlap his freedom last year after he refused to play for them (a theme), and he was one of their best players. I will mention that Cincy does have one of the best interior DLs in football with Geno Atkins and DJ Reader, but they both combine for over $24M this season... that's a lot for DTs. Jessie Bates (Wake Forest guy) is one of the best FS in football right now. I think they may look to lock him up this offseason and pairing him with Vonn Bell has been good for both players. I'll give the LBs a little more time to sizzle, but adding another body there wouldn't be the worst thing.
The offense has a decent young nucleus with QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Tee Higgins and WR Tyler Boyd. They will be together for a long time. Outside of that, everything must go and be upgraded. LT Jonah Williams is the only piece on that OL that needs to stay put but he has only played 1 season. He can play either tackle spot and possibly guard as well. That means we need upgrades at each interior spot on the line and RT Bobby Hart is in the last year of his deal, so let's look for his replacement. Giovani Bernard takes up way too much of Joe Mixon's touches and honestly should be cut this season (his final contracted year). TE CJ Uzomah tore his achilles last year and isn't expected to be ready to return for the start of his final contracted year. Let's upgrade that position too. Tee Higgins is a good outside option and Boyd is more of a slot guy, but I'd really like another big-bodied WR for Joe. Similar to Detroit, there is a lot of work needed to be done.
Team Needs: CB, WR, NCB, EDGEx2, OGx2, C, LT or RT
Team Wants: ILB, TE
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The Steelers are in the Saints boat from last year. They know they have 1 more year of their longtime QB and have no money to make moves. The issue the Steelers have is on top of having -$30M in cap space, they also have a lot of important impending FAs. LT Alejandro Villanueva, RT Zach Banner, RT Matt Feiler, EDGE Bud Dupree, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, ILB Avery Williamson, RB James Conner, NCB (Nickel CB) Mike Hilton. The good news is that some of these players like Juju and James Conner and one of the RTs are expendable players. Additionally, Big Ben has said that he will reduce his exorbitant salary to help bring the cap down. He is currently due over $41M so if that comes down to $10M, they may be able to do some damage into bringing some important guys back. There are also some cut options like backup TE Vance Macdonald that can be cut and save over $5M or either starting CB Joe Haden or Steven Nelson would save a decent amount. I expect they will try to restructure players contracts and not sign any extensions this offseason unless they defer money. They want to give one last go at it.
I've said it more than once so I will be brief with it. Big Ben isn't it anymore at QB. He can't move and because of that he struggles to throw, but the team is asking him to throw 40+ times a game. Not a winning recipe. They need to replace him, but they won't do it until at least next year. I really like PITs WRs though, even without Juju. I personally think they may not even address the WR position this offseason and run it back with Claypool, Diontate and James Washington. That is a good group of players and they clearly know how to develop WRs in Pittsburgh.
RB and OL is going to be where all the focus of their offseason lies. Pittsburgh's best teams have been heavy running attacks and rough and tough defense. If they can get Ben's pass attempts to somewhere in the late 20s because of the success of the ground game, they will be in business (Don't argue different eras with me, even the Willie Parker days were better than this.). We probably are looking at a rookie because they can handle 300 or so carries a game a lot better than a war-torn veteran. I mocked Najee Harris to them in the 1st round, but there are other backs like Stevenson from Oklahoma or Trey Sermon from Ohio St that can be acquired later on. The interior OL may all be back for at least one more season, so if they can figure out how to resign their tackles they will be set. As of now, they have no starting tackles. Something of note, long-time center Maurkice Pouncey is apparently mulling retirement. If he retires, that would save the team $8M, but would leave another gaping hole in the OL.
The defense, unsurprisingly, did not keep up the impossible pace that their 2019 defense did in terms of turnovers. However, they were still very impressive over the first half of the season when LB Devin Bush was healthy. Then EDGE Bud Dupree got hurt and the whole thing fell apart. Bud was on a franchise tag and will surely hit the open market this offseason. They did draft EDGE Alex Highsmith last season though, and I really love his game. I don't expect much of a drop off there as I think Dupree's gaudy sack numbers from one season are not representative of his larger body of work (he is overrated). There still needs to be a body added here though, in case Highsmith doesn't make the full jump. I mentioned the Steelers will be losing a starting ILB, but they do have some depth there to be able to fill that role. I'm not too concerned at that position with Vince Williams as a serviceable player. Assuming they don't touch their starting corners, their secondary is golden outside of losing their 3/4 CBs.
Team Needs: RB, LT, RT, NCB
Team Wants: QB, Slot WR, C, EDGE/OLB, ILB
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The Browns have done a masterful job setting up this offense around Baker Mayfield. They had 3 all-star interior players in 2019 and they decided to attack the tackle position in FA and the Draft with their biggest contract and their first-round pick. I love to see it. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are no doubt the best RB duo in the league and Jarvis and OBJ have talent oozing out of them. The only thing is that Baker seems to struggle to get OBJ the ball consistently, unless he tries forcing it to him. Best case scenario for the Browns team is to get OBJ on board with not getting 10 targets a game. If they can't, there may be some unrest. They also have Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant, which is one of the better TE combos outside of Tampa. I love how they assembled this team. They have no impending FAs on the offense. Run. It. Back. If Baker doesn't take another step forward, we may need to have conversations about potentially replacing him.
I noted all that great stuff about the offense, and then turn the page to the... wait where is the defense? They're all gone? I mean not all of them... I see EDGE Myles Garrett there and CB Denzel Ward... but what about... no... well ok... they are all gone. To be specific, they are all impending FAs. DT Larry Ogunjobi, EDGE Olivier Vernon, SS Karl Joseph, CBs 3&4 Kevin Johnson and Terrance Mitchell, OLB Malcolm Smith, ILB BJ Goodson (what an unfortunate name), and a few other depth pieces. That is quite a lot of snaps that will be gone in 2021. The Browns have about $21M in cap space which isn't too bad, but resigning any of these players will be tough to accomplish.
The one thing the Browns are fortunate for in 2021 is that they had a couple young players CB Greedy Williams, SS Ronnie Harrison and FS Grant Delpit who will be coming back in full form after missing significant time in 2020. They will be starters, but we still need to fill in some depth at CB behind Greedy and Denzel. I think the biggest hole will be the one left at EDGE. Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, but he needs a running mate to be able to prevent double teams. The draft is not as plentiful with top-end EDGEs, but there may be some options in FA from their division rivals. Both LB positions need to be filled, but I'm not as worried about these positions. Of the two, I would focus on getting a signal-caller at ILB to lead the defense.
Team Needs: EDGE, DT, CB, OLB, ILB
Team Wants: WR
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I am very conflicted about the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson is clearly an amazing athlete and he is a bright star of the NFL because of his ability to make amazing plays with his legs. But he is not a competent quarterback. He consistently stares down his target. If he doesn't find his first target, he immediately takes his eyes and looks into the pocket because he feels like he needs to get out (even when he doesn't need to). So he scrambles and takes off running. Last year, he was able to hit the deep ball a lot more often, so that stretched the defense out and made it harder to spy a LB or S on Lamar. The deep ball threat still worked in 2020 because he has a cannon, but it didn't happen enough. The offense is clearly built around Lamar and tailored for his style. But if I am the Ravens in this tight-money offseason, I am not putting down big money to extend him. Wait another year.
2021 has already been a wild and crazy offseason and it is barely a month old. On Wednesday, RT Orlando Brown Jr said that he has requested a trade because he wants to play LT. The issue is Ronnie Stanley is the LT for the Ravens, and he is a damn good one at that. They just paid him almost $100M over 5 years. So Orlando Brown is expected to be leaving the Ravens and will leave a 345 lb hole. The OL is also going to lose C Matt Skura who they really liked going into 2020, but didn't perform up to expectations.
Outside of the OL room, the obvious hole on this offense is playmakers surrounding Lamar Jackson. We have to surround him to truly evaluate him. He has a bunch of small, shifty, quick WRs and a bunch of athletic TEs. That is all well and good, but Lamar has a cannon for an arm. Can you imagine him with a huge Calvin Johnson type WR? Now, Calvin Johnson's don't show up out of nowhere, but that type of build is what we should be looking for in a WR. Willie Snead and Mark Ingram are FAs... who cares. JK Dobbins is about to steal the show and if you give Lamar a huge guy to throw it up, it could be dangerous. Kenny Golladay anyone?
We have some work to do for the front 7. Somehow these 7 guys always come together to be one of the best groups in the NFL, but they seem to have so much turnover every year. This year, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (acquired from the Vikings in a trade) and EDGE Matt Judon are both FAs, with DE Derek Wolfe as well. With only $20M in cap space to work with, I don't think it is possible to sign Yannick and Matt back. Getting Yannick for a long term deal should be the focus after giving up some assets to acquire him. Judon is a player that will get them a compensatory 3rd round pick in the 2022 draft after he signs for big money. 2 more LBs McPhee and Bowser are also FAs, but these depth pieces may be easier to replace. Their corners are 100% set, but I think they could use an upgrade at FS. After Earl Thomas had some issues and the team rightfully cut him, they didn't really work to replace him. Getting a center-fielder could be in their plans this offseason.
Team Needs: RT, C, WR, EDGE
Team Wants: LB, FS
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