Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for... the NFC + AFC South - 2/5/21
Another Friday, another Team Needs article. I hope you enjoyed the East divisions last week and will enjoy this edition today. I know they can be monster articles to read, but just imagine writing them lol. If you have any suggestions for the final 2 divisions or if you would prefer to see one division next week, let me know in the comments or just get ahold of me however you do.
My point in this 4-week series is to get into the nitty-gritty of what teams want (where they want to upgrade) vs what teams need. I will look through the lenses of ideal roster construction, available cap space, players that I do or do not believe will be resigned, and more. I will be using these 4 articles as a base for my mock drafts. If you would like to read the first article on the East Divisions, click here. I won't update the articles after teams cut, franchise, or trade players, but I do retain the right to change my team needs (for my mock drafts) as we continue on our march towards the Draft. With all of that being said... Let's Talk About the 2021 Offseason Needs for the NFC + AFC South.
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NFC South Team Needs
First up, let's start with the team that I always think has a good shot to compete but always seems to fall short. The Atlanta Falcons had good talent on their roster. Quite a few superstars as well. They remind me a lot of the Rams where they have 2 all-star defensive gems (Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones), plus a good OL, and some great offensive weapons (Julio and Ridley). But, I'm really looking forward to their offseason because I think it is going to be a shit show. They currently are over the cap by $42M, have an old (36) QB, an always hurt WR, and both of them happen to be the highest cap hits on the team.
There were initial reports that the Falcons may try to trade Julio and/or Ryan this offseason, but recently they have walked back those rumors. My guess is that they know they won't be able to get good enough return value, so they want to publicly support both of them. Teams (Falcons, Saints, Eagles) that had to restructure their larger contracts to get under the cap in previous years are facing the bright lights with the cap going down in 2021. Neither Ryan nor Julio can realistically be cut this year. There is an outside shot that it happens next offseason, based on dead cap numbers, but a trade would be what is best for the team's financial situation.
Similar to the Eagles, I need to cut a few players in this exercise to try to determine what the team will need. Here are a few people that I think might be released in the coming months. But honestly, the cap situation is a mess. They will likely have to move on from one of their big 4 contracts (Jarrett, Ryan, Julio, Matthews).
Allen Bailey, DE: Saves $6.1M but has dead cap of $1.6M. Overall savings of $4.5M
Ricardo Allen, FS: Saves $8.4M but has dead cap of $2.2M. Overall savings of $6.2M.
Trading one of the older OL. Jake Matthews is a good, not great LT but is being paid $20M this year. James Carpenter is one of the weaker links of this OL and can save the team $4M, if they move on.
The plus side to all of this crappiness is they have the 4th overall pick in the draft and there are 4 really good QBs, if they want to get their next franchise QB. The downside is that you likely will still have Matt Ryan as the starter next year, and unless they find a trade suitor, he will still be the highest-paid player on the team.
Ok, let's look at the rest of the roster. My projected cuts included their starting free safety and starting DE. They will also have Alex Mack (starting C), Keanu Neal (starting SS), Todd Gurley (starting RB), Damontae Kazee (backup SS), and Charles Harris (backup DE) leaving the team unless they can somehow resign them.
They drafted a corner in the first round last year (AJ Terrell) and the hope is he can come into his own, but he didn't show almost anything last year. I can't categorize it as a need because they at least have some bodies there, but it is something they may address. Outside of Grady Jarrett, they have absolutely zero pass rush even though they have tried and tried to find a guy. They signed Dante Fowler last year but he was largely irrelevant in the 14 games he played, getting only 10 solo tackles and 4 sacks. Finally, they are losing their best offensive weapon from 2020, Younghoe Koo is a FA. Welcome to the team, Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot.
Team Needs: RB, SS x2, EDGE x2, C, K
Team Wants: CB, QB, LB, FS
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The Panthers had a great opportunity last week to coach the Senior Bowl and get to meet Mac Jones from Alabama, as well as a few other QBs. During that same week, they reportedly offered the Detroit Lions the 8th Overall Pick and their 3rd Rounder for Matt Stafford. That deal was all set to go through until the Rams were given another chance to up their offer and they did. A close call for the Rams, but it is safe to say that the Panthers mean business by wanting to upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater. Normally, when I use the word upgrade I will put it in the 'Want" category... but Teddy Bridgewater is not a starting QB to me. They need one.
I feel like Carolina is in a really good spot after 1 year of the Rhule era. But they will have some big roster spots opening up, especially on the OL this summer. They will be losing their starting LT, RT, LG, and backup RG to free agency, as their contracts have expired. Additionally, Curtis Samuel is set for a big pay raise in FA and will likely not be back. And their defensive player that they are losing is 31-year old LB Tahir Whitehead. These are all substantial starters that will need to be replaced. While Matt Rhule focused on addressing the defense last draft, I think the focus will be retooling the offense this summer.
Of the players that have expiring contracts, I don't expect LT Okung to be coming back but I may be wrong. They acquired him last year in a trade and may not want to move on from the 33-year old just yet. Although I think his best play is far in his past. Taylor Moton their RT, may have priced himself out of town. He is one of the top OTs available in the 2021 FA period. I mentioned that Curtis Samuel is in for a pay raise. There are quite a few good WR options this summer, but Samuel is unique in that he can play RB, slot WR, or outside WR. Whitehead's best playing days are clearly behind him, but his snaps will be missed. The LB core hasn't been the same since Kuechly retired.
I mentioned that Matt Rhule's defense was the focus of the 2020 offseason and with rookie Jeremy Chinn as the firecracker of the defense, they weren't too bad. Especially in the secondary with young players such as Donte Jackson and Troy Pride. But I will continue to say this, you can never have too many good corners. Continuing to invest with the position and hoping you find a top 10 guy is the best option. Lastly, the defensive run game needs to be improved as they have struggled the last few seasons. They have a decent DL, so I venture to say the LBs are a big part of the problem.
Team Needs: QB, LT, Slot WR, RT, OLB, ILB
Team Wants: OG, CB, TE
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- I guess let's go with Brees and his likely retirement. He has the highest cap hit on the team and while his retirement leaves an obvious hole at the position, it also helps their cap situation. If Brees agrees to cut his salary down to the league minimum before he retires, the team can save $24M on the cap.
- Kwon Alexander can be cut and the team will save $13M with no dead cap. He only had one or two good seasons in Tampa and has moved around since then, he won't be missed.
- Marshon Lattimore is by far the best player in the secondary, but he costs nothing to cut. The Saints need to trade this player to get his $10M off the books and so they can get some more draft capital. He will easily go for a first-round pick. Top 10 corner in the league.
- They can save $6M by cutting Emmanuel Sanders, one year after signing him.
- RT Ryan Ramczyk, similar to Marshon, is a stud player who has no dead cap on his contract. He will have a market of at least a 2nd or 3rd round pick and you can clear $11M. Top 5 RT in the league.
- You can also cut Latavius Murray and Josh Hill, which will save $5M.
Team Wants: WR, FS, DT, CB
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Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers? Maybe. I wanted to wait to do them next week and the Chiefs the following, but the Panthers, Falcons, Jags, and Texans all were very bad and thus had high draft picks (lol Houston), so I wanted to get to them first.
The Bucs have probably the most talented roster in the NFL. Past of that is due to Brady signing and other players wanting to resign or go to play with him like Suh, AB, Fournette, etc. But in 2020, they had finally gotten to see some returns from their much-maligned secondary and they got a great player in Devin White to accompany Lavonte David. They also got All-Pro production from Shaq Barrett and Pro Bowl production from JPP. The defense finally caught up to where the offense had the potential to be. All they needed was the QB. Enter Tom Brady. I have given some grief to the Bucs for their notoriety that they have missed on a lot of their 1st round picks. Their last 3 drafts? Vita Vea, Devin White, Tristan Wirfs. I don't know what got into Jason Licht, but all 3 of these were instant game wreckers with the exception of Vea who has hurt for a lot of his rookie year. But let's get into how this team will try to improve in the offseason.
Amazingly, the Bucs have all this talent and still are $11M under the cap going into the offseason. I'm not sure if Super Bowl incentives will make that number even smaller, but a small price to pay if it does.
Remember the offseason that Cameron Brate resigned with the Bucs for 5 years? I do. It was the same offseason, they drafted OJ Howard with their 1st round pick. Both of them have $0 in dead cap if the team wants to move on, but Gronk is on a 1 year deal as well. It sounded like Gronk would come back if Tom does, so I would assume that OJ Howard will probably be released or traded. That is gonna save $6M. If the Bucs are looking to continue to shave money, Donavon Smith is an average to below-average LT in the NFL and he is getting paid $14M next season. Ryan Jensen is an average Center that has seemed to have some occasional issues (snapping and stupid penalties) with Brady this year and he is getting paid $10M next year. Cutting them would save all of that money. Although, then you have to try to find a replacement for 2 starting offensive lineman. William Gholston could also be cut and it would save $5.5M, but he has been good enough that they don't need to. The last guy... Bradley Pinion... the punter is making over $2M. I said this last week. You don't need to do this unless he is an All-Pro talent.
The biggest offseason issue for Tampa is that they have quite a few expiring contracts. 31 to be exact. And there are quite a few good players that are deserving of multi-year deals. Shaq Barrett, Chris Godwin, Lavonte David all may not be resigned. Shaq was franchise tagged in 2020 and because he had another great year, I expect he will get a new deal. David is a Bucs fan favorite and has stuck through all of the bad times. I would hate to see him sign somewhere else, but his age (31) may be a factor. Chris Godwin is who I expect will get the franchise tag this year. They have to try to run it back with as many weapons as possible for Brady. Other important names that are on expiring deals are Fournette, AB, Suh, Nunez-Roches, Gronk, and both backup QBs.
As I noted in the opening paragraph, I think the Bucs have the best roster in terms of talent up and down the roster. But they do need to improve on special teams. I know you normally don't draft or bring in talent for that area, but they were in the bottom quarter of team in terms of average yards returned for punts and kickoffs. Also, and I'll keep saying it, it is never a bad thing to bring in a new corner or deep safety. The team has Carlton Davis who is emerging, but I think Todd Bowles has helped bring out the best in some of these other players like SMB. Getting some more talent there to improve is never a bad thing.
Team Needs: WR, LB, Backup QBs, EDGE, KR
Team Wants: FS, C, LT (or RT if Wirfs is LT), RB, CB, P
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AFC South Team Needs
Welcome to Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence. The Jags have their best QB since David Garrard and he isn't even on the team yet. This isn't a mock draft though. This is about rosters and let me tell you... this defense... it actually has some real potential.
Everyone on the team is young so we have to keep that in mind. But the defense is where a lot of the notable top picks for the team have gone. In the last 3 years, the Jags 1st round picks have been DT Taven Bryan, EDGE Josh Allen, CB CJ Henderson and EDGE K'lavon Chaisson. On top of that make sure you count veterans (Pro Bowler) LB Myles Jack and LB Joe Schobert. They do need to re-invest in each secondary position, but there is plenty to work with here. The Jags do need to improve on their run defense. I think their EDGE talent might be a little more pass-rushing focused. Getting a bigger body to help set the edge will be big for them.
The real work begins on the offensive side. Obviously, we all know Trevor is coming to town but I will still list it is a need for this exercise. Gardner Minshew showed some bright spots but he was a 7th round selection for a reason, he has limitations. This year's bright spot was UDFA James Robinson who exploded in 2020 when the team cut Leonard Fournette. Robinson had a ridiculous 85% of the team RB carries in 2020 and was in the 90s most of the year until he had to miss 2 games at the end of the season. While the RB position is locked up for at least one more season, not all of his OL will be returning. Cam Robinson, the Jags LT, is a free agent this offseason. To be perfectly honest with you, this position would have needed to be upgraded anyway. Cam reminds me a lot of Donovan Smith, JAG (Just A Guy). Elsewhere on the OL, Brandon Linder and Andrew Norwell are both underrated iOL but won't get any love when you are on the lowly Jags. The RG spot currently occupied by AJ Cann, might be a spot for an upgrade or at least some competition. They always have Jawaan Taylor at RT and honestly, have a pretty solid OL. 3 real nice players which is one of the reasons why Robinson had so much success.
Now that the Jags have Trevor, they need to set him up for success. The OL is already pretty decent along with the running game. But damn have we got inconsistency at the playmaker positions. Gardner brought out the best in DJ Chark in 2019, but he was so up and mostly down in 2020 that I wonder if he is a player you don't look to upgrade from. I thought Laviska had a real nice rookie year as a gadget player, but can he evolve into that player Trevor can depend on? Regardless, we need a true WR1 in Jacksonville to help out the younger WRs and the rookie QB. Additionally, Tyler Eifert is not the player he once was. He is acceptable as a TE, but we need to look to upgrade here. The club has a team option on him for $6M which seems a little high for my tastes.
The best thing for the Jags? They have the most cap space in the NFL with over $73M, aren't losing anyone notable to FA, and have the best Draft chest in 2020. They have a chance to compete sooner rather than later if they have a good offseason.
Team Needs: QB, LT, FS, SS, WR
Team Wants: CB, iOL, TE, EDGE
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Oh god... what's that smell? Oh... it's the Texans.
"Houston we have a problem" is the nonstop meme in the NFL. The organization is on fire and Jack Easterby is just sitting in his office "Everything is Fine".
First, if you want a really in-depth look into the Texans with regards to how they have spent their money and Deshaun Watson's trade prospects, please click this link. There is a lot of info in there about the allocation of their cap towards non-foundational positions and the issues it has caused. However, I will also talk a bit about some of it here.
Alright, so we know Houston is about $18M over the cap right now. We gotta get that down. If a Watson trade does happen, there will still be a dead cap hit of $21M (spread out over 4 years). In other words, if you trade Deshaun you save $10M today, but the assets/contracts you get back may not make it so it is much cheaper overall. One easy way to shed some money is to trade or cut JJ Watt which will save $17M. Boom, we are almost right up to the cap with only one move. With the Deshaun move, we will likely be under. However... there are still some bad contracts on this roster. If Deshaun is traded, we need to shed some of these players that aren't living up to their contract so we can get this rebuild going. Players like Duke or David Johnson both would save over $5M if they are cut. Randall Cobb probably won't be cut but he is not even close to the player he once was. He has 2 years of with over $10M left on each year.
We have talked mainly about the offense so far, so let me wrap that up here. Will Fuller is a free agent and I can almost certainly guarantee he will not be back in Houston. He is injury-prone, but I still see him commanding over $10M on the open market. GB really wanted him near the trade deadline. The OL is basically Tunsil and that's it. Houston's last 1st round pick was spent on a hopeful player to plug in at tackle, Tytus Howard. He was awful there and they moved him into guard where he has been less awful, but I would shy away from the word acceptable. The right side of the OL needs a lot of help as compared to Howard though. 1 great player, does not a team make.
The defense I don't need to spend much time on. There are not many players on this side of the ball that are starters on other teams. Watt, Roby, Reid and Cunningham are really good players. Mercilus and Watt are their best 2 pass rushers and both are older and need to be upgraded or cut. Roby was a real bright spot on this team of misfit toys in 2020. He continuously was locking up the #1 WR and doing a great job. Cunningham is going to be the new leader of the defense once Watt moves on. They have some young players like Blacklock at DT and Charles Omenihu at DE who are promising but are still very young.
Additionally, with all of the Watson news, I am curious to see if other players on the Texans also make a stand with Watson. Either asking for a trade or sitting out because of Ownership's previous words about the 'players being inmates'. Houston is not close to competing again and Deshaun has more than likely played his last down in Red and Blue.
Team Needs: OG, OT, WR, CBx2, SS, EDGEx2
Team Wants: Deshaun Watson, C, OG, RB, Slot WR, TE
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The Colts are one of my favorite teams in terms of how they go about building and maintaining their roster. In my opinion, the Colts are very aware and concerned with how much they are investing in any given player. Everything has been tactical since Chris Ballard came into town in 2017. Just take a look at the OL situation. He was only given 2 years of the Andrew Luck era but the damage had already been done by the previous regimes inability to protect him (outside of Anthony Costanzo). Ryan Grigson drafted 2 OL (in the 1st 3 rounds/premium picks) for Luck's first 3 seasons, and he was sacked exactly 100 times. In 2016, Grigson drafted Ryan Kelly in the 1st round, but was fired after that year. Kelly is still on the team. In 2017, Mark Glowinski (RG) was signed in FA. In 2018, Quenton Nelson (LG) was drafted in the 1st round and Braden Smith (RT) was drafted in the 2nd round. And the Colts already had a premier LT in Costanzo dating back to 2011. In 3 offseasons, they made a top 5 OL. When Chris Ballard came in he made it a point to build up that group to protect their franchise QB. Recognizing the weakness and investing a lot of premium resources into fixing it. Ballard will have to have one more masterstroke for this OL because Costanzo retired this season. Left tackle is the biggest need outside of QB.
They have also made great business decisions when it comes to trading and cap management. In 2018, they traded back from 6 to 3 and picked up 3 second-round picks. Since 2018, the Colts have entered the new league year in the top 5 of most cap space available each season. All while having large contracts on the books for players like Andrew Luck, Anthony Castonzo, TY Hilton, etc. This season they come in with $64M available. Only 2 other teams (JAX, NYJ) can compete with them in a bidding war for any of the top FAs. Now if only they can figure out their starting QB...
As much as I have rightly credited the Colts, they were given unfortunate news when Luck decided to retire in August of 2019. He was one of the best QBs in the league and they haven't been in a good situation to replace him. Unless they would've convinced Tom Brady to come to town and given Tom's history with Indy that would seem unlikely. So they signed Phillip Rivers as a one-year bridge QB, got back to the playoffs, and drafted a kid named Jacob Eason. Now the question is if they give Eason a chance (I am not a believer in him) or if they try to convince Philly to trade them Carson Wentz for a couple of picks. And Indy isn't shy about trading their top selection if they can get a top-quality player. Just last year they traded their 1st round pick for DT Deforest Buckener and he has immensely helped their interior pass rush and rushing defense. I do think one way or another they will need to trade for a QB. They won't be able to get Watson because they are in the same division. But Wentz, JimmyG (even though he isn't good), Derek Carr, Darnold, Tua (if Fins get Watson but don't include Tua)... or maybe a darkhorse if they decide to do through free agency again... Fitzmagic.
Alright, let's talk about something other than the QB and OL. To finish up the offense, the RB room is now set with Johnathan Taylor being drafted early last season. They also drafted Pittman last year, but will be losing TY Hilton. I think Allen Robinson's ideal landing spot is Indianapolis, but ARob's biggest concern will be the lack of QB right now. They also could probably use a good chain moving WR/TE as well. Someone who can be more effective than oft-injured Jack Doyle.
Moving on to the defense. There are some really great pieces here like Buckener and Darious Lenoard, but there isn't enough quality overall. They need a top-flight pass rusher on the EDGE to be able to wreak some havoc. They are losing Justin Houston to FA this year, but he is already past his prime. Speaking of a looming FA past his prime, the Colts are thankfully losing CB Xavier Rhodes who was torched his final year in MIN. He improved in Indy a little bit, but their passing defense was still dreadful. They have CB Kenny Moore who made some plays but could be upgraded from. CB Rock-Ya Sin was also in that Quenton Nelson trade that I mentioned previously. He has been given enough time to prove himself and so I am convinced he isn't starter material. More talent at corner is necessary. The good thing is they have some real good young guys in the MOF (middle of the field) in Julian Blackmon, rookie safety out of Utah, and Bobby Okereke, 2nd year LB out of Stanford.
The team is set up really well for success and if they can get the QB right, they will be winning division titles again soon.
Team Needs: QB, WR, CBx2, EDGE, LT
Team Wants: TE, WR, SS
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Finally, let's talk about the team that does their own thing and doesn't care what anyone else is doing. The Tennessee Titans. The Titans and Vikings I think might be the only teams that if their ground game wasn't working they would continue to run the ball, even if it won't work. They are completely dependent on Henry and that OL churning yards out. But let me tell you, it does work most of the time. And once it starts working, play-action right over those sucked in LBs or safeties and AJ Brown is gone. The weirdest thing about the team in 2020 was that their record got better, but the team really performed worse. Their defense was in the bottom 5 and couldn't stop anyone. It's almost like trading away your best defensive player (Jurrell Casey) for a 7th round pick and letting your best corner (Logan Ryan) walk-in FA was a good idea. They had to try to figure out a way to pay Henry and Tannehill and mission accomplished... I guess.
The Titans are only just over the projected cap of $175M, but they are losing a few notable players to expiring contracts. TE Jonnu Smith, EDGE Jadaveon Clowney (won't be resigned), WR Corey Davis, and DT Daquon Jones were all starters and notable snap takers, when healthy. Losing their 2 best defensive linemen is not going to be easy to swallow, especially since their DL was already piss poor outside of Harold Landry. This entire thing needs a rework similar to what Indy did with their OL. Invest, invest, invest in EDGE rushers, 3 tech DTs, NTs, OLBs that rush the passer. I don't care. Just get them in the building. As far as long Jonnu and Corey, I don't think they will be missed too much. There is enough room in this offense for a 2nd pass catcher, but I think Adam Humphries will take over some of the missing TE production. It doesn't mean they can't upgrade from Firkser though.
The OL is one of the better groups in the NFL, which was evidenced by Derrick Henry's ability to run for 2k yards this year. One thing to be noted though is that all of OL (outside of the RT) are over 30 years old meaning they are being paid decently well for their services. I wouldn't mind looking at some depth on the interior that could eventually replace some of these men. I mentioned the RT was young. Very young in fact. So young that he was drafted in the 1st round last year. So young that, during the preseason, he was caught at a party at the Univ of Tennessee without wearing a mask. Needless to say, Isaiah Wilson did not play for the Titans this past season and is looking like the first bust from the 2020 draft. But I will give him this season to see if he is worth another look. I wouldn't hold my breath though.
I already mentioned how bad the DL is so let's jump to the back in the secondary where an underrated Kevin Byard leads the (lack of) charge. Byard is one of the best outfield (think Minkah in PIT) safeties in the NFL and had 17 interceptions from 2017-19. That being said, without any other help he doesn't stand a chance. Adoree Jackson was a 1st round pick a few years back and he is really just a speed guy. He can't lock down his man. They do have Malcolm Butler, but as famous as he was for that end-zone INT in the Super Bowl, he is also famous for being benched the next Super Bowl. In other words, he is more name value than anything. They did invest a 2nd round pick into Fulton from LSU, last year, and I thought he might be pretty decent. He should have an increased role in 2020 because Desmond King will be out of the picture in the slot and Adoree Jackson can be cut for nothing. As for the LBs, the biggest thing they could use is someone who can cover TEs and RBs but in terms of the pecking order, I would value this as less of a need and more of a want.
Team Needs: DTx2, EDGEx2, NT, CB, Nickel CB
Team Wants: WR, TE, RT, iOL, LB
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