Monday Minute: Free Agency is Almost Open! (Kinda) - 3/15/21

I did a full mental fart last week. I was totally convinced that the NFL free agency tampering window opened on Sunday at 4pm. I didn't understand why there was nothing going on the Twitterverse around that time. No hype or excitement for football. Don't get me wrong I was thoroughly enjoying my share of the Illinois vs Ohio St and Houston vs Cincinatti college basketball games (speaking of if anyone wants to join a March Madness pool free or for money lmk), but I was confused. Turns out I should look at a calendar more often. The 17th is a Wednesday and 2 days before Wednesday is Monday. Otherwise known as, today.

So basically my entire schedule I made 2 weeks ago was built off the plan that in this article I would be talking about major signings. Thank god for this weird cap offseason where every team is making a flurry of moves to get under and over and through the loop de loop and pull and your shoes are looking cool... I mean trying to get under the cap. (If you know that reference let me know on twitter or in the comments.)

Anyways, teams were active this week but this is still kind of a short article so apologies for that. I have a couple surprises coming up this week so I hope you look forward to those. Let's get into the Monday Minute.

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Cowboys resign QB Dak Prescott for 4 years $160M with a no-trade clause and no tag clause, plus the 1st 3 years are fully guaranteed at $126M. What a great deal for Dak. I don't think Dak is in the top 5 QB discussion, but you pay QBs early because the market always resets. Jerry Jones got backed into a corner and had no other choice but to give Dak everything he wants. There is an additional $4M in incentives if he leads the team to a Super Bowl victory for each season ($1M per season). The contract expires at age 31 so he will have at least one more huge payday coming. The 1st year cap hit is only $22M (down roughly $15M if he was going to be tagged) which is big for allowing the Cowboys to be able to make a move in free agency if they want. There are 2 voided years at the end of his contract. The first voided year is to help alleviate cap hits during the deal and leaves $13M after his contract has ended. The second voided year is there to help the Cowboys cap space next year if they decide to restructure his base salary into a signing bonus.

Packers resign RB Aaron Jones with a 4 year $48M deal with 13M guaranteed. "I think he signs for between $12-14M per". I am almost positive he would've gotten better guaranteed money if he went to FA, but this salary range was always going to be the true price point. My guess is that this is a 1 year deal with team options for year 2-4. I bet Jones will get paid a $13M salary in year 1, which is fully guaranteed, and then every year after that the team can get out of with no dead cap. At most it is a 2-year deal with minimal dead cap hits if he is cut after that, think voided years in year 5/6. I love this deal for Green Bay. Many will point to AJ Dillon in the 2nd round last year, but he will have an increased role this year. Williams won't be coming back.

The Bucs and QB Tom Brady worked out a 1-year extension plus voided years to allow him to be paid the same $25M but give the team cap space. I don't expect Tampa will allow Brady to play in another jersey until he chooses to retire and Brady won't retire until his play has deteriorated. Who knows how long that will be. Have I ever mentioned that I hate him?

The top two linebackers in free agency never even made it there. The Bucs re-signed LB Lavonte David for 2 years $25M, 20M guaranteed. David has 3 voided years at the end of his contract to help his 2021 cap hit, which is only $7.7M. David likely will be a career Buccaneer and this 2-year deal is perfectly aligned with Brady's extension. I don't think that is a coincidence. David's name value finally matches his elite play value.

The consolation prize to David would have been Matt Milano. The Bills originally said they would allow him to test free agency, but I guess Matt wanted to run it back in Buffalo. They came to a 4 year $44M agreement with $24M guaranteed. Just behind David in terms of average per year but getting more than half of his contract guaranteed is a nice get for Matt and any LBer. Both Matt and David were among the top Linebackers in coverage last year which is the reason for the big paydays.

The Bills also retained impending FAs RT Daryl Williams and G Jon Feliciano. Three of their four largest needs were covered with these three deals. Daryl's deal is for 3 years and $24M with almost $14M guaranteed. Getting out of this deal after only 1 season is possible with only $3M in dead cap if they so choose. Williams has some versatility in terms of where he can play on the offensive line. A year after signing a 1-year prove-it deal, he cashes in. For Jon, he got 3 years for $17M. I noted in my free agency preview column that Jon is a bully on the inside. The exact numbers for his deal aren't in at the time of this writing, but because of his injury in 2020, I would expect it is a deal that the team can get out of easily. The Bills had $6M in cap space before the Feliciano numbers come in. I don't think either move restricts them from selecting a rookie on the OL.

One more large resigning is the Patriots choosing to retain QB Cam Newton. His deal comes in for 1 year $14M deal, however, he will only make $5M guaranteed and base salary (base means divide that by 17 for game checks). The rest of the contract is made via incentives for making the playoffs, pro bowl, super bowl, all-pro, MVP, super bowl MVP, etc. A very low money deal for New England and a starting job for Cam Newton. Win-win.

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Let's get into the reported trades. Keep in mind that none of these trades are official until they complete their physicals which can only happen once the new league year begins.

Titans trade RT Isaiah Wilson to Miami for a swap of 7th round picks. Miami takes on a 3-year $5M fully guaranteed contract. We all knew that the Titans were shopping Wilson and honestly I am shocked that anyone gave up anything. But the one thing I have learned about this Flores/Grier combo is they constantly churn the bottom of the roster. They will send low draft picks on fliers and won't feel bad about it. If I think about it through that lens, I don't hate this deal. But this trade won't guarantee the 1st round pick from 2020 a roster spot.

Texans trade LB Bernardrick McKinney and 7th rd pick to Miami for DE Shaq Lawson and a 6th rd pick to Houston. The Dolphins will have $3M in dead cap from the Lawson deal and they owe Mckinney $7M for 2021. McKinney was likely going to be released (as I noted way back in the team needs article for the South) because they already had a high paid LB room and added LB Christian Kirksey. McKinney is absolutely awful in pass coverage but he will be used as a MLB for the Dolphins. My fear is that he will be on the field for more snaps than either of the previous MLBs (Roberts and McMillan) so that will be a problem for him. As for the Lawson side of this, the Texans had a desperate need at edge and since they switched to the 4-3, Lawson is a great fit. McKinney is probably better in a 3-4 system which Miami runs about half the time. Lawson was OK for the Dolphins but his presence is felt more outside of the box score. He is an above average run defender and can also produce a few sacks for you. McKinney has 3 years left on his deal. Lawson has 2 years left on his deal. Both McKinney and Lawson can be cut by their new teams with no dead cap next season. 

Patriots make a swap at right tackle. Raiders trade RT Trent Brown and 7th trade back to Patriots for 5th round pick. In 2018, Trent Brown was acquired by the Patriots in a trade for a 3rd rd pick and they received a 5th rounder back. He had a career year at LT and then went into FA. The Patriots then got a 3rd rd pick back as a compensatory pick in 2020. That is a bit of a sidebar but the way the Patriots work the comp formula is a work of art. I think Trent will be on the right side in NE this time around because they have Isaiah Wynn as their LT. Also, it is so like the Patriots to acquire a player and then tell them to take a pay cut when they have $70M in cap space. At least it is reported that Brown restructured.

A subsequent move the Patriots made was to trade RT Marcus Cannon to the Texans for a late-round pick swap. With Trent Brown now in the fold, Marcus was expendable. Cannon also saves the Patriots $7M in cap space and was poissibly going to be cut after his opt-out season in 2020 (as I noted here). For the Texans, they have Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard at tackle, so Cannon might switch back to guard where he played earlier in his career. But this is the type of compensation you should be giving up for OL, not 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder. The Texans still need to get a center after they cut Nick Martin.

I mentioned this with the McKinney trade. The Texans signed LB Christian Kirksey for 1 year and worth up to $4.5M. To me, that means there are some incentives in this deal to get up to $4.5. This is a cap saving move for them too. Trading McKinney and picking up Kirksey is about a $4M savings. I wasn't impressed with Kirksey in Green Bay but as long as he outproduces McKinney the Texans should be happy.

RB Mark Ingram signs with Texans 1-year $3M. Not a big deal, in my opinion, he is there to share the ball with David Johnson. I'll discuss any small fantasy implications from this signing in a later article. The Texans are down to about $15M in cap space with their 2 trades and these 2 signings. 

The Bears resigned DE Mario Edwards for 3 years $11.55M this past week. Mario is a rotational defensive end for the team that provided 4 sacks in 2020. He will miss the first 2 games of the 2021 year due to a suspension.

The best fullback in football goes back to one of the best running football teams. The 49ers resigned Kyle Juszczyk for 5 years $27M with $10M guaranteed. If he earned every penny from all of his contracts that would put him over $50M he made from football. #FullbacksArePeopleToo

Here is a fun one that came across on Sunday. Taysom Hill signed a 4-year $140M (Russell Wilson deal) extension with the Saints!!!! Oh should I mention that the contract is all void years? It is very confusing the way it is worded from the Schefter tweets, but essentially this "extension" is not an extension at all. Taysom was going to be making around $10M on the final year of his deal in 2021. 2021 is still the final year of his deal (so it isn't an extension at all) but Taysom is going to get a pay bump and the Saints are going to save $7.5M on the 2021 cap. I don't understand where the $140M number even comes into place but the 4 years represents the 4 voidable years on the end of his contract, which will leave the team with a $7M dead cap hit in 2022. I think...

The Bears did what most teams should never do by resigning K Cairo Santos for 5 years $16M with $4.5M guaranteed. The way the guaranteed money looks I would say it is a 2-year deal minimum and the team could cut bait on him, but the game checks are where I say no. A kicker should be one of cheapest players on your roster.

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TOP 10 Signings I Hope Will Happen

This is all speculative and 100% my opinion (as is most of everything else in all of my articles). I have no idea if any of these would actually happen because of money, but I matched up players with teams that I thought would fill a need and that the player would be in a good position to produce. Let me know who your favorite free agency fits are in this free agency period. There is not an order to this, just 10 signings I like.

1. TE Hunter Henry -> IND Wentz love his TEs
2. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick -> NO Fitzmagic with Payton? Oh yes.
3. CB Jason Verrett -> BUF Verrett is the perfect veteran to add behind White
4. DT Shelby Harris -> CLE DL is the biggest weak point on this ascending team
5. S John Johnson -> BAL Teams just won't throw on Baltimore
6. WR Will Fuller -> GB Everyone outside of DET, CHI, and MIN wishes Rodgers had more weapons
7. C Corey Linsley -> LAC An experienced center for the young QB
8. LT Trent Williams -> SF Resign him so they can move up in the draft for a QB
9. EDGE Yannick Ngakoue -> BAL They can't trade for him then let him walk
10. G Joe Thuney -> CIN Bengals need 4 new OL

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What signing do you hope will happen? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.