First, a quick update on the content you should expect to see over the next week or so. For Friday's article, my plan is to release my Top 50 Draft Prospects Big Board for the 2021 Class. Keep in mind these are going to be rankings done for players that I THINK are better than other players (not team/scheme specific). It is not indicative of a mock draft as needs and wants vary by team. It also doesn't take into account the importance of positions like a mock draft will, so you will see RBs, LBs, Safeties, etc. Next week, I plan on releasing Mock Draft 2.0 with my completed Team Needs series and the Big Board as major influences on the mock. This will be the last mock (besides the final version) that will not include trades. There are too many variables still like free agency, franchise tags, salary cap casualties, etc. Anyways, if you have any ideas for content you'd like to see you can let me know, or I will continue on with my path. Enjoy the article!
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(I swear I came up with this article idea before ever single media outlet decided to do a list of their own. I didn't look at any of their lists so I would remain unbiased.)
Tuesday was the first day that teams could apply the Franchise (or Transition) Tag to a player on their team. The deadline for applying a tag is March 9th, while Free Agency starts unofficially on March 15th. For those of you that don't know what the Franchise Tag is, I will explain it here.
- The Franchise and Transition Tags are tools that an NFL team can use on Unrestricted Free Agents only.
- It allows the team to retain their rights to that player for 1 year and pay them at a specific rate relative to other players at their position.
- Only one tag may be used per year per team.
- Once the tag has been slapped onto a player, the team and player have until the middle of July to get a long-term deal done or they will only be paid for that 1 year and can rehash it out the next offseason.
There are two different types of Franchise Tags. The first is an Exclusive Rights Franchise Tag that states the salary for the tag will be an average of the salaries of the top 5 players at the player's position, based on the current year, OR 120% of the players salary the previous year, whichever is greater. The Non-exclusive Franchise Tag gives the player a salary of the average of the top 5 players at the player's position based on the last 5 years.
The Transition Tag works a little differently. Transition tags give the player a salary of the average of the top 10 players at his position over the last 5 years, so it pays out less than either Franchise tag. For all of the tags, the average is multiplied by that year's salary cap. That is very important for this season specifically because the cap will be going down for the first time in forever. The salary for all of these tags is fully guaranteed.
The Non-Exclusive Franchise and Transition Tag have a very important caveat. The players that are slapped with those tags can still negotiate contracts with other NFL teams. Here is an example.
Team A puts a tag on Player X. If Team B gives Player X a contract offer, it is up to both Player X and Team A to decide what to do. First, Player X can obviously say they don't want to sign with that other team and it dies there. However, if Player X chooses to sign that contract offer, there are 2 options for Team A. Match that contract offer and keep Player X, or let Player X go to the new team. If Team A tagged him with a Non-exclusive Franchise tag and Team A allows Player X to go to Team B, Team A will receive 2 first-round picks in compensation from Team B. If Team A tagged him with a Transition tag, Team B owes Team A nothing in compensation.
So there is an important risk you are taking when choosing the tags because other teams almost never engage with players that are Non-exclusive Franchise tagged. If the player is given an Exclusive Rights Franchise Tag, another team cannot attempt to sign that player. As an example, Dak Prescott was given the Exclusive tag last year.
We have seen players get moved after they were Non-exclusive Franchise tagged before, but it is incredibly uncommon. In 1998, the Panthers acquired DL Sean Gilbert from Washington who failed to match their contract offer sheet of $46.5M over 7 years. (Offer sheet is a contract offered to a free agent that is restricted or tagged.) Gilbert became the highest-paid defensive player at the time and the Panthers sent 2 1st rounders back to Washington. In 2000, the Seahawks franchise-tagged WR Joey Galloway. However, the Cowboys were bullish on acquiring a physical receiver like Joey, so they paid the 2 1st round picks price.
I believe the record for the most Tags in an offseason is 19 from 2011. That was a very abnormal year because there was a lockout when the NFL and NFLPA could not reach an agreement on a new CBA until the summer. I don't expect we will reach that level, but who knows with the cap going down. Last year, 15 players were tagged (14 franchise tags). If a player is franchise tagged (exclusive or non) 2 years in a row, the following year's salary will be 120% of last year's salary.
Also, don't be surprised when there are no tags until the final 2 days before the deadline. Teams always want to have the most information possible when it comes to their cap with cuts, extensions, etc, before they confirm a tag.
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Here are the prices for the Non-Exclusive Franchise and Transition Tags for the 2021 offseason (assuming $180M salary cap). The Exclusive Franchise Tag is not included because it is much more case by case basis since it is either the average of top 5 salaries at your position or 120% of your salary last season.
Non-exclusive Franchise Tag:
- Quarterback: $24.1M
- Runningback: $11.1M
- Wide Receiver: $16.4M
- Tight End: $10.2M
- Offensive Line: $14.5M
- Defensive Tackle: $14.2M
- Defensive End: $17.8M
- Linebacker: $15.7M
- Cornerback: $15.3M
- Safety: $11.2M
- Punter/Kicker: $4.8M
Transition Tag:
- Quarterback: $21.7M
- Runningback: $8.9M
- Wide Receiver: $14.3M
- Tight End: $8.6M
- Offensive Line: $13.2M
- Defensive Tackle: $11.4M
- Defensive End: $$14.8M
- Linebacker: $13.4M
- Cornerback: $13.2M
- Safety: $9.6M
- Punter/Kicker: $4.4M
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With all of that setup... let's quickly discuss each team, who may be a good candidate for a tag this offseason, and the probability that a tag will occur.
Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Haasan Reddick, Franchise, High Chance - Reddick took a big step in 2020. Pass rushers are not easy to find and they already have one stud in Chandler Jones. Give Haasan one more year to see if he is worth a long-term deal.
Atlanta Falcons: No one, High Chance - The Falcons aren't losing any free agents that deserve a long term extension or that they need to keep around. K Younghoe Koo may be the only one that they want to make sure they keep. $5M for one of the best kickers in 2020? Ehh, I'd still pass.
Baltimore Ravens: EDGE Yannick Ngaokue, Franchise, Medium Chance - Yannick is the one player they cannot let out of the building. After trading some assets mid-season to acquire him, they no doubt have him in their future plans. They really wanted to acquire him from Jacksonville before the 2020 season started, but JAX made a trade with MIN instead. If a long-term deal can't be met, they will place the tag on him and continue to work on an extension until July. EDGE Matt Judon was tagged last season and they will only be able to keep Yannick or Matt in 2021.
Buffalo Bills: No one, High Chance - The Bills have more or less announced that LB Matt Milano has earned the right to try out free agency and see what's out there. I think the Bills would like him back, but on their terms and won't break the bank for him. They aren't losing almost anyone else.
Carolina Panthers: OT Taylor Moton, Exclusive Franchise, High Chance - If the two sides can't come to a deal, this will happen. The Panthers only have a center on their OL right now. They can't lose a Pro-Bowl quality tackle. I could see this escalating to an Exclusive tag if things are really at a stalemate.
Chicago Bears: WR Allen Robinson, Franchise, Medium Chance - There have been some reports that ARob is willing to come back to Chicago, but the team hasn't reached out to him about an extension recently. That goes against what was happening during the 2020 season when ARob was "checked out of Chicago". I don't think Allen will respond kindly to the tag (AKA I think there is a chance he would sit out), but he is clearly their best offensive player. They also may try to tag and trade him just to get some assets back.
For any tag and trade opportunities think of it like this. If one of your teams impending free agents goes out and signs with another team for a lot of money (and your team doesn't make a similar signing for a lot of money), there is a good chance that your team will receive a compensatory draft pick in the next year's draft. The more money it is, the higher round the pick will be in (Round 3 is the highest). The comp pick formula is very complicated, but Allen Robinson would likely command a Rd 3 comp pick. Therefore, the Bears may ask for a 3rd Rd pick or better in this year's draft for his rights and then the new team would sign him to a long-term extension. Trying to get the draft pick a year early is something we have seen done in the past.
Cincinnati Bengals: No one, High Chance - If I was doing an article where I NEEDED to choose a player to tag, it would be CB William Jackson who showed some notable improvement this year. EDGE Carl Lawson also would get some shine in that article. But this is not that article. Moving on.
Cleveland Browns: No one, High Chance - The Browns have a few notable FAs in name, but they are either over the hump (EDGE Olivier Vernon) or not quite good enough to deserve elite money (DT Larry Ogunjobi).
Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, Exclusive Franchise, High Chance - This will be Dak's second franchise tag in a row and will pay him $38M fully guaranteed. Dak has played his cards close to his chest, but I think he wants to play for the Cowboys. He also wants to be fairly compensated and Jerry is refusing to give in. Eventually, they have to strike a long-term deal or Dallas will be the loser, not Dak.
Denver Broncos: FS Justin Simmons, Franchise, Medium Chance - Similar to Dak, Justin was franchise tagged last year. If he gets tagged again, he will be paid $13.7M. However, it sounds like Justin and the team have been working on a contract extension. If it doesn't get done in time, I think they will give him the tag to protect him while they work it out. Justin is one of the best safeties in the game and he will be paid like it.
Detroit Lions: WR Kenny Golladay, Franchise, High Chance - This seems like a similar situation to Allen Robinson for a tag and trade opportunity. Although Kenny Golladay did refer to Detroit's coach as his coach in a media appearance recently. I would be surprised if Kenny wants to go through a complete rebuild in Detroit when he could probably make more money elsewhere and have a better chance at competing. But the team may not let the decision be his own. Basically every WR the Lions have is a FA, so the Lions will no doubt want to keep him if they can.
Green Bay Packers: RB Aaron Jones or C Corey Linsley, Transition, Low Chance - I could see either of these players being important enough for continuity sake to be brought back for another shot at glory. Though, I don't think either player is worth the extra few million for them to apply the Franchise vs the Transition because the Packers are so cap stricken. Linsley is probably more important to the team and is probably a better player above replacement, so if I had to pick one I would go there. But I don't think either player will have a future with the team beyond 2021.
Houston Texans: No one, Medium Chance - The Texans have one player they wish they could franchise tag. Unfortunately for them, Deshaun Watson is not tag-able. It's a joke. The team has more leverage now than if he were able to be tagged. They are losing Will Fuller this offseason. While his "expected salary" is north of what the tag number is, I don't think he will be kept in Houston given his injuries and suspension.
Indianapolis Colts: No one, High Chance - The Colts aren't losing any notable free agents. TY Hilton is a name but he has slowed down after his injuries. He may re-sign for cheap to play with Carson, but it would be very team-friendly.
Jacksonville Jaguars: No one, Medium Chance - This one I am really up in the air on. I don't think the Jags will tag anyone just because they are really only losing one "good" player, but that player is a starter on the OL. LT Cam Robinson is not a premier player by any means. But tagging him for one more year so Trevor doesn't have a rookie or worse player protecting his blindside may not be a terrible idea. I keep going back and forth.
Kansas City Chiefs: C Austin Reiter, Transition, Medium Chance - If the Chiefs can afford to, they really need to. Austin Reiter is one of 4 potential losses on the Chiefs OL in 2021 (LT - Achilles out for year, RG - Opt-out again?, RT- cap casualty?). He is a top 10 center in the league and they can't afford to lose this many big men. The Chiefs also are in a bit of cap trouble and I don't think they can afford to tag anyone. If they do, Reiter will be the guy.
Las Vegas Raiders: No one, High Chance - The Raiders aren't losing any notable free agents. And no... Nelson Agholor having one good year does not make him notable. Also, he apparently screamed at his team in the locker room after Week 16 ended saying everyone was trash.
Los Angeles Chargers: TE Hunter Henry, Franchise, Low Chance - I am putting "low chance" on this one because it kind of sounds like Henry wanted to test free agency this time around after being tagged in 2020. Though, that means very little as the team has the control to do what they please. If Henry is franchise tagged again, he would cost $12.7M to the Chargers. Only 4 TEs have ever made $10M on average for a contract. George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry last year.
Los Angeles Rams: S Josh Johnson, Franchise, Low Chance - The Rams are losing a few pieces to their defensive core that I'm sure they wish they could bring back. However, EDGE Leonard Floyd is not worth the almost $18M to keep, nor is CB Troy Hill worth the tag. However, Josh Johnson is definitely worth the $11M safety tag. The tough thing for the Rams is they are in trouble with the cap and will have a hard time digging themselves out. Josh is one of the rising stars at the safety position and should make some decent money in FA.
Miami Dolphins: No one, High Chance - The Dolphins aren't losing any notable free agents. C Ted Karras is the Dolphins best player they are losing, but they have already told agents of their FAs that they won't be tagging them.
Minnesota Vikings: S Anthony Harris, Franchise, Low Chance - Harris had another great year for Minnesota, but it was a surprise to a lot of people when the Vikes tagged him last year. They apparently were trying to tag and trade him, but no one was interested in their price. I put Anthony here because he is one of their best defensive players and would only cost them around $14M to tag him again. This falls right in line with his expected market value. If he doesn't get tagged, I don't think he will return to MIN. While he is 30, I think someone will pay well for his services.
New England Patriots: No one, High Chance - The Patriots tagged All-Pro talent G Joe Thuney in 2020 and it seemed kind of like a waste of time and anti-Belichick move. Normally Bill is so smart and allows his ageing FAs to go sign for big money so he can get a high compensatory pick back. But he questionably tagged Thuney and now he has to wait another year to cash in on that eventual draft pick. Weird. I assume that means Bill wants to keep Thuney and they certainly have the money, but it would be odd if they chose to tag him again at $17M.
New Orleans Saints: S Marcus Williams, Franchise, Low Chance - Similar to the Rams, they have a rising star at safety that they just can't afford to pay. Marcus Williams will always be famous for allowing the Minnesota Miracle to happen by not tackling Stefon Diggs. But outside of that gaffe, he has been tremendous for the Saints secondary. If the Saints can somehow figure out their money, I'm sure they would love to keep him.
New York Giants: No one, High Chance - The only player that would be in consideration for the Giants is DT Leonard Williams who they franchise tagged last year and had a great season. If they decide to tag him again, he would cost $19M to the Giants this year. That is a tad rich for me for a DT that isn't Aaron Donald. But I have to think the Giants will try to make a run at extending him.
New York Jets: S Marcus Maye, Franchise, Medium Chance - One of the only good players on the Jets. Marcus Maye has really been able to shine with Adams being traded to the Seahawks. The Jets #1 priority from now until March needs to be trying to resign Maye, but we will see if Maye wants to play ball. I'd assume Maye will not give the team a hometown discount. Saleh would love his abilities on the back end.
Philadelphia Eagles: No one, High Chance - The Eagles aren't losing any notable free agents. Burn. It. Down.
Pittsburgh Steelers: LT Alejandro Villanueva, Franchise, Medium Chance - The media has confirmed Ben will be back with the Steelers so now they need to start reassembling their broken OL. C Maurkice Pouncey has retired and won't be coming back. They also have Villanueva and T Matt Fieler as FAs. Fieler is more of a swing tackle now with them drafting a replacement last year at RT. If they can figure out how to get under the cap, $14.5M for an above-average LT isn't a terrible thing for one season.
San Francisco 49ers: No one, High Chance - There is a player the 49ers would love to tag. However, they can't. When they agreed to trade for LT Trent Williams last year, they also agreed they would not franchise tag him so he could enter FA. This doesn't mean they won't try to sign him. In fact, I assume the 49ers will give a very strong offer. But Trent knows this is the last time he will be able to cash in on a big payday.
Seattle Seahawks: CB Shaquill Griffin, Transition, Low Chance - The Seahawks are in a weird spot with Shaquill. He is probably going to get paid pretty well on the FA market, but they really need corner help, regardless of if he leaves. A transition tag allows the Seahawks to keep him under temporary control and give them the right of first refusal. A team will no doubt give Shaq a decent offer, but if the Seahawks are comfortable matching it, they can keep him. No risk, with a possible reward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Chris Godwin or LB Lavonte David, Franchise, High Chance - I am confident the Bucs are going to be doing restructures, pay cuts, and all that jazz to bring back as many players as they can, but there are a lot of important pieces that are on the outside looking in right now. RB Leonard Fournette, Gronk, David, Godwin, EDGE Shaq Barrett, DT Ndamukong Suh, WR Antonio Brown, and that is just the most notable guys. Of the entire group, the 3 most important that they need to make sure they bring back are Barrett, Godwin, and David. Barrett deserves a long-term deal and I think that is something they will get done. After that, it is a game of pickle between the face of the Buccaneers in Tampa over the last decade (David) and an offensive weapon for Brady (Godwin). If I had to put my money on it, they will tag David and allow him to walk next year, in case Brady retires. David is also a tiny bit cheaper than Godwin.
Tennessee Titans: TE Jonnu Smith or LB Jayon Brown, Transition, Low Chance - The Titans are losing all 4 of their TEs to Free Agency this year. I am sure they will reach low-cost deals to bring back at least 2 of them, but Jonnu Smith may be the odd man out. He is clearly the most talented of the bunch, which means he will get paid decently. Similar to the Seahawks, doing a no-risk Transition Tag to see how much he would really cost on the market and whether you would be willing to match it, might be a good idea here. $8M per year seems like a decent spot for his contract, which is right where the Transition Tag lands. LB Jayon Brown might be a dark horse for the tag. I don't know much about him, but he has some real buzz around him and they will want to keep him around as the LB group has underperformed outside of him.
Washington Football Team: No one, Medium Chance - Washington tagged Pro Bowl G Brandon Scherff in 2020 and while I don't expect they will tag him again for $18M, I have been surprised before. Like when they tagged Scherff in 2020. Maybe I shouldn't have been surprised since he has been a very good player, but I was. Washington probably doesn't want to lose one of its best offensive players, but Scherff is now entering his 30s and he may want to cash out on a long-term deal elsewhere.
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Have you ever noticed that HOU, IND, JAX all are in the same division but are also next to each other alphabetically? And then it goes KC, LV, LAC right after it. If these are the things your head thinks about, let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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