The Monday Minute: Senior Bowl Recap + Super Bowl Preview + Pro Bowl??? Edition - 2/1/21

THERE WERE NO GAMES ON THIS WEEKEND!!! WHAT ARE WE GONNA DO!!! Pro Bowl weekend is always the first toe-dip in the water of what is to come in the new year. Don't get me wrong I love the offseason because of the hope that comes with the Draft and Free Agency. But not having live football until September always gets me into my feelings. It's the sad truth that I am more addicted to football than betting on Mario Kart. The only good news is that next weekend we will have one of the most hyped Super Bowls since the Giants-Patriots rematch in the 2011-12 season. Let's all enjoy it football fans.

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Speaking of that Super Bowl, I want to do a little preview with some things to keep in mind while watching the game.

First and most obvious, the best QB of the current era vs "the best" QB from the old guard. Mahomes vs Brady is all sorts of juicy but I will keep it simple. Brady has been to 10 Super Bowls. I don't think that will ever be topped because that type of dominance in any (US) sport just doesn't happen. Football is a team sport but there can be no doubt that Brady has the passion and drive that no other QB has ever been able to combine with his own natural skill to do something like this. BUT... if there is any player that could get to 10 or more... it is Patrick Mahomes. A few things need to happen for the stars to align 10 times like this. 

• You have to have an all-world talent at QB and at HC. Check. 
• You have to have a GM that is aligned with what the coach needs to have success on the field. Veach has been masterful with cap management and drafting players in his career thus far. Check.
• You have to be able to win and dominate your division every single year so as to automatically qualify for a home playoff game. Check.
• You have to have leaders on the team and in the front office that demand winning and excellence over anything else. Time will tell with this one. This especially is what made the Patriots dynasty so unbeatable.

Something that will be really interesting to watch is the "home field" factor for Tampa. I don't think there will be many Tampa fans in attendance as there is only a 22k limit, so I don't mean the noise. But Tampa is considered the home team for this game because the NFC was away last year. That means they will have the comfortability of their home locker room. If they were away, KC would have their locker room. Being able to be familiar with your surroundings can be very important for these players and this might just be a hidden benefit for Tampa.

As far as the game goes, the big thing to watch is how the Bucs decide to cover Tyreek Hill. These two teams played in November and Hill had over 200 yards just in the 1st quarter. Carlton Davis was tasked with covering him and did not do a good job, to say the least. They switched it up in the 2nd half and Hill was held in check, but the game was out of hand at that point. The Bucs eventually pulled the game to within 3 points, but the Chiefs were already on the plane ride home by the 3rd quarter. If the Bucs can slow down Tyreek, they still will have to worry about Kelce... but any time you can contain one of them you have at least a shot at winning.

How important will the injuries to the KC Offensive Line be? They will be without both their starting Pro Bowl LT Eric Fisher and Pro Bowl RT Mitchell Schwartz. Mahomes is very good at maneuvering inside the pocket and we know he can scramble downfield as well. But I will be paying a lot of attention to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul on the edge for Tampa. They have had a great couple years in a row and a great run in the playoffs. Additionally, how will his mobility be after his injury against the Browns? He looked fine against the Bills, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Completely useless information but I thought it was kind of fun. This will be the first Super Bowl between two ever "Red" teams. I put red in quotes because the 49ers could be considered red, but they are scarlet red. Both the Chiefs and Bucs are Pantone 186C. I know this partially because I had memorized the Bucs red, pewter, and orange when I worked there. I just thought it was a neat little thing.

A parting note. Tampa is 5-3 at Ray Jay this year. Kansas City is 8-0 on the road. Tampa has not lost since... Nov 29th against the Chiefs.

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So I'm sure none of you saw it, it wasn't really big news by any means, but on Saturday night the Lions TRADED MATTHEW STAFFORD TO THE RAMS! And the Lions got back a bounty. The unofficial terms of the deal are the Rams 1st round picks in 2022 and 2023, their 3rd round pick in 2021, and the former #1 Overall Pick Jared Goff for the former #1 Overall Pick Matthew Stafford. First, I want to make sure everyone is aware but this trade cannot be made official until the new league year begins on March 17th. Any trade that is agreed to prior to that date is considered unofficial and will not process until that date. The reason this is important is on the slim chance that this trade ends up getting cancelled for whatever reason.

As a previous example for this type of trade, the Chiefs agreed to a deal during this very same pre-Super Bowl week on January 30th (ironically the same date as the Stafford trade). They sent Alex Smith to the Washington Football Team and the trade ended up going through the first day of the league year. No complications. I just wanted to note we have seen this before and this trade is basically a formality at this point, but you won't see either in a jersey for their new team until that day. Additionally, another team won't be able to swoop in and offer the Lions more; otherwise, it would not have been reported to the media.

But let's get into the weeds about this monumental deal. There are quite a few factors we need to take a look at. The 1st is Matthew Staffords contract and age. I mentioned in my previous QB Carousel article that Stafford was the best option, outside of Watson, that could be on the move because he is only going to be 33 when the season starts and has 2 years for $43M left on his deal. $21.5M per year is an absolute steal in this day and age for a top 15 QB. QBs primes normally don't end until about 36 or so unless they rely more on their legs for success. The Lions will be left paying $19M of Stafford's deal.

The 2nd thing we need to pay attention to is Jared Goff's contract and age. Before this trade happened, I would've told you with a straight face that this is an untradeable contract. This was as bad of a deal as Brock Osweiler's deal with Houston, except Jared Goff DIDN'T NEED TO BE EXTENDED. The Rams tried to jump the gun 2 years early and ended up absolutely screwing the pooch by signing him to a mega-deal before they realized McVay was the true genius. The 26-year old Goff has 4 years for $104M left on his deal. $27M per year for a truly limited QB that doesn't help you at all with his legs. The Rams will be left paying $22M of Goff's deal. 

The 3rd and most important thing is about compensation. And I am not just talking about the compensation for Stafford. The Rams were forced to pay the Lions for taking Goff's contract (mostly) off the books. I am writing this shortly after the trade was announced and I am 100% certain that because his contract was this bad, it forced the Rams to include another 1st. Early reports are saying that other teams included a single 1st round pick for the 2021 draft (normally future draft picks are less valuable than the current years) and other non-1st round picks. Meaning it doesn't sound like other teams were willing to include more than 1 1st round pick for Stafford. My estimation that he would have been worth a 1st, 2nd and player may have been close to spot on in my previous article.

The 4th is about the ramifications for both of these teams post-trade. The Lions only got a single pick for the 2021 Draft (3rd Rd) from the trade and they acquired a QB that they are on the hook to pay for 2 more seasons before they can cut him with nothing in dead money. This tells me that the Lions are not interested in drafting a QB in the 1st round this year. The Lions currently are positioned in the 7th spot in the 1st round. This clearly is going to be a full rebuild with Dan Campbell getting 6 years on his (first ever HC) contract. So much so that I expect that we might see another trade or salary cut by the team prior to the draft. The Lions paid 3 former Patriots players (since the old HC was a former Patriot) that are no longer going to fit the scheme. Trey Flowers (DE), Jaime Collins (LB), and Danny Shelton (NT) all will be in danger of being moved and all carry a combined $35M in 2021 salary. Additionally, it feels like the Lions are more likely to move back from the 7th pick to accumulate more picks for this rebuild. A QB-needy team looking to jump the Panthers at the 8th pick might be interested (SF, NE, CHI, PIT, WFT).

As for the Rams side of this equation, they have not selected a player in the 1st round of the NFL Draft since 2016... when they selected Jared Goff. To be able to select Jared Goff they traded 2 1sts (their original 2016 and 2017), 2 2nds, and 2 3rds. The reason they did not trade their 1st rounder this year to the Lions is that they already traded that pick away last year to get Jalen Ramsey. The Rams are no strangers to being up against the cap line and will have to shed some contracts to get under the line this offseason. But this deal is a no brainer for them in terms of their increasing their odds in competing for championships. The Rams also made sure that Stafford would not be playing in San Francisco by getting this deal done. A double whammy and masterstroke from Les Snead. Who needs 1st round picks anyway? Well... most teams do and honestly, I'm not sure how the Rams have survived this long without one. They have done a great job getting quality starters in the mid-rounds and staying above the waterline in terms of talent around their superstars.

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Other quick NFL hits...

News out of Pittsburgh that BOTH Big Ben and the team want him to return but the Steelers will only take him back if he plays for less than his $42M contract stipulates. Ben has since announced that he doesn't care about money at this stage, so it seems like all signs point back to him being the starter in PIT for a reduced price. You know my stance on this... Ben is over the hill and they won't be able to win with him. The problem is they have struggled to bring in any quality QBs to replace him, which has made it hard to win without him as well. The Steelers can try to run it back one more time, but it is clear they need to find his replacement sooner rather than later.

The last Head Coaching vacancy has been filled. The Houston Texans have hired 65-year old David Culley. He comes to the team from Baltimore where he was the WRs coach and has been the WRs coach for every team he has been on in his extremely long 43-year career. A couple of thoughts on the new coach. First, I find it funny that the NFL's worst and least active passing attack got a head coaching gig in this cycle. Baltimore threw the ball by far the least in 2020. Second and on the contrary, I actually really like this hire for Houston. An older, under-the-radar candidate quiets the crazy circus surrounding the team and can get them through an upcoming rebuild. His age alone means he isn't a long term option, but I feel happy for this man who had apparently given up on ever getting a head coaching job in the NFL. The last thing for Houston, the team held a press conference for Coach Culley. Because the Deshaun circus is the biggest topic for NFL people this offseason, the Coach and GM had to address the issue. They said emphatically that Deshaun was NOT going to get traded. I wrote an article on this topic weeks ago now. Way too many things have changed in that time span and I am now 90% sure that Deshaun will be traded because I think he will choose to sit out if it comes to that. He has deleted anything related to Houston on his social media bios and has made it clear that he wants out. Houston will get a treasure trove for him and as much as it will hurt to move him, it is what is best for everyone involved to get a clean start.

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Last but certainly not least for this week's edition is about the Senior Bowl. I wanted to fill in some of the blanks that I missed about the Senior Bowl last week. There are really 4 different phases to each Senior Bowl for the players. 

First, you have your meetings with scouts, front offices, NFL people from all 32 teams that have descended upon Mobile, AL to get a closer look at these players. A lot of NFL GMs are normally in attendance as well as some Head Coaches, but all 32 teams will have some sort of representation during the week. This is probably the most important part of the entire week for these players because any team can look up practice or game film, but they may only get one shot to sit down and talk to a player. 

Next, the players will meet with their respective coaching staff for the week of practice and game. These meetings are part learning and part testing. The coaching staffs of the Dolphins and Panthers get the opportunity to install their offense and defense and also test the players on what they are able to retain and learn throughout the course of the week. The only teams that get this benefit are the ones that are selected to coach that week so it is truly an invaluable resource. 

The final 2 parts are on-field practice and the game on Saturday. There are 3 days of practice on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with the game following on Saturday. On Friday, the players actually switch teams (Panthers players will go to the Dolphins coaching staff and vice versa) so that both coaching staffs will have the opportunity to meet and test these players. The Senior Bowl game is the last opportunity we will get to see the players running around in pads with live hitting until after they are drafted. 

This year the Wednesday and Thursday practice, as well as the game, were televised. So I was able to get a personal look at what some of these players had to offer. Here are my thoughts on what I saw.

If you followed anyone that did any reporting on the Senior Bowl, you no doubt heard all about Dwayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan), Quincy Roche (EDGE, Miami) and Quinn Meinerz (C, Wisconsin-Whitewater). Dwayne was outstanding in the 1v1s and team drills at creating separation between himself and the corner. In these drills, everything is man coverage so creating the space between yourself and the DB is more important than actually catching it. Quincy went up against the all-SEC OL of the American team and absolutely tore each of them a new one. He used a multitude of pass rush moves to run over, shed, or run inside or outside of the man in his way. He also showed that he was able to set the edge and stop the run in team drills, which was something he was not known for in college. Finally, Quinn is America's new favorite son as his "beer belly" is larger than my head. Not only that, but he likes to serve up pancakes and I don't mean the breakfast food. He was consistently putting people ON THEIR ASS. He was doing that at his D3 school in 2019, but COVID cancelled his season in 2020. He brought the juice this week against much better talent at the Senior Bowl. All of them are stock up players. Quincy is probably a lock for the 1st round, while Quinn and Dwayne are Day 2 selections.

Other players that I thought had a "winning" week. Frank Darby (WR, Arizona St) and Demetric Felton (RB/WR, UCLA) each had a nice little week in practice. Both are smaller guys, but they showed they were able to get off the press coverage and make good catches. I thought that Larry Rountree (RB, Missouri) and Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Oklahoma) had outstanding vision and patience in both practice sessions I watched. They don't quite have the speed that Michael Carter (RB, North Carolina) has, but both showed they could catch the ball out of the backfield. Moving to the OL, I mentioned both as guys to watch in the last Monday Minute and Trey Smith (OG, Tennessee) and Dillon Radunz (OT, North Dakota St) did not disappoint.  Trey Smith succeeded at tackle and at guard and looked really nimble, yet powerful at both positions. He will be a top 5 iOL taken. Radunz wasn't as perfect as Smith, but he showed that the dominance at the FCS level could be reproduced against better talent. Neither will fall past the 2nd round and I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami or Carolina take them because of their advanced looks at them. The last guy on offense to mention is Mac Jones (QB, Alabama). He got injured on Thursday, but that didn't stop him from being far and away the best QB on the field. I originally had him going in the 2nd round and honestly, I still believe that is about where he should go. But I think the NFL will be taking him in the top 15. QBs are reached for in the draft and the way he showed up this week for the Carolina staff (picking at #8 btw), he certainly made himself some money.

Let's start on defense with the secondary, where these players are truly set up to fail. Sticking in your WRs hip pocket while he is running with no one else on the field is not an easy task. But I thought Cam Bynum (DB, California), Tre Brown (DB, Oklahoma), Keith Taylor (DB, Washington) and Richie Grant (DB, Central Florida) all shined above the rest in terms of sticking with their defenders and making good plays on the ball. Brown, Grant and Taylor each had INTs in practice which should not happen. Dissimilar to the secondary, the DL is set up for success in 1v1 drills against the OL. Yet there were not many winners on the DL as compared to the OL. That being said, I couldn't help but notice Cam Sample (DL, Tulane) and Jonathon Cooper (DL, Ohio St) winning every single rep they took. I actually counted on one practice and Cooper won every rep (5) that was shown. Cooper is a little smaller than many were hoping for on measurements day, but his tape and play speak for themselves. Cam Sample is a bigger dude and was winning on the inside and outside.

As for some players I thought lost more than they gained, Jaime Newman (QB, Wake Forest) and Kyle Trask (QB, Florida) stand out as QBs. Jaime struggled all week with throws over the middle and his accuracy to all levels. He threw into triple coverage at least twice that I saw and the simulated pressure would have gotten to him, more than a few times, for a sack. As far as Trask goes, he was unable to practice this week because of an injury and I think that really hurt him when comparing him to Mac Jones. Both Jones and Trask were vying for that 5th QB spot behind Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson. Mac wowing the scouts on the field no doubt put him in the lead for that spot and may have even pushed him into the top 4 discussion. Trask is firmly in at the 6th spot and is probably looking at being selected on Day 2. Similar to Trask, Trey Sermon (RB, Ohio St) was unable to practice due to injury while Stevenson and Carter (other top 5 RBs) had good weeks. On the OL, Drake Jackson (C, Kentucky) measured VERY POORY with his arm length. The number of teams that will be able to draft him became much smaller, as he will likely only have success in a heavy zone run offense like SF where he can attack defenders rather than trying to keep them at bay. Many of you may have seen memes around the National Championship of the behemoth Alabama offensive lineman. That was Deonte Brown (OG, Alabama) and while he is a mass, he really struggled to move around in my opinion. He was very good at Bama, but at the next level when he sees more stunts and games from the DL I wonder how much success he will have. The last 2 I need to mention are Patrick Jones (DL, Pittsburgh) and Shaka Toney (DL, Penn St) who were the most disappointing of every player mentioned. I had high hopes for Patrick Jones and some even had him in the R1 conversation. No way that happens anymore. I didn't see him win a single rep in 1v1s and Shaka Toney struggled with keeping his feet. No players lost more money than these two with their Senior Bowl performances.

So you may have noticed I didn't mention anyone from the LB group. This is definitely the group I struggle to see/evaluate the most as they have many jobs to fill on any given play. Their success of a play is measured much differently than other players. Of the group, I will say I heard a lot of good things about Baron Browning (Ohio St), KJ Britt (Auburn), and Jabril Cox (LSU). Chazz Surratt (North Carolina) didn't have as stupendous of a week as I was expecting.

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For my Wednesday article I will be doing a full article on Super Bowl bets. Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter if you would like me to talk about any specific bet and get my pick on it.