Nothing fancy for an intro. Let's jump into the AFC + NFC South Breakdowns, shall we?
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Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 91st Round: 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson; 25. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
2nd Round: 33. Tyson Campbell, CB Georgia; 45. Walker Little, OT Stanford
3rd Round: 65. Andre Cisco, S Syracuse
4th Round: 106. Jay Tufele, DT USC; 121. Jordan Smith, EDGE UAB
5th Round: 145. Luke Farrell, TE Ohio St
6th Round: 209. Jalen Camp, WR Georgia Tech
7th Round: None
Trades:
JAX trades Picks 130, 170 and 249 to the LAR for Picks 121 and 209.
Draft Summary: I struggle with a lot of Urban Meyer's first draft. The good thing is that I feel they took a lot of high upside players on Days 1 and 2. Pairing up Trevor with Travis was a distinct possibility in my eyes but to see it happen at Pick 25 instead of 33 was a bit surprising to me. Them being together should help the culture shock that is entering the NFL. Campbell and Little are potential-based selections. Little especially who has played very sparingly in college due to injuries and the opt-out. The only player I feel I can speak for on Day 3 is Luke Farrell who will be more of a blocking TE in Jacksonville, as he was at Ohio St.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: B-
Team Needs: iOL; Team Wants: TE
I like how Jacksonville didn't totally select for need on the first 2 days but wanted to take good prospects. They did get their QB and possibly a new free safety in Cisco, whom I liked. Etienne and Little both were at positions that I think should have been addressed because of the current talent on the roster. If Little's play in the NFL matches the forecast that his early career play suggests, this could be a steal at 45. Campbell seemed excessive to me because of their recent resources put into the CB position. It is possible that 2020 1st round pick CJ Henderson may not have a long leash.
Most Likely to Succeed: Trevor Lawrence
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Walker Little
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Houston Texans
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 5
1st Round: None
2nd Round: None
3rd Round: 67. Davis Mills, QB Stanford; 89. Nico Collins, WR Michigan
4th Round: None
5th Round: 147. Brevin Jordan, TE Miami; 170. Garret Wallow, LB TCU
6th Round: 195. Ryan Lopez, DT Arizona
7th Round: None
Trades:
HOU traded Picks 109, 158, and a 2022 4th round Pick to CAR for Pick 89.
HOU traded Picks 203 and 212 to BUF for Pick 174.
HOU traded Picks 174 and 233 to LAR for Pick 170.
Draft Summary: The Texans were arguably the worst roster coming into the draft and they traded up 3 times (sending away 3 2021 picks and a 2022 pick). Getting fewer swings at the bat is not very Belichickian of Nick Caserio in his first draft. Neither is panicking and taking a QB (with only 14 starts) with his ever 1st selection when you will likely have a top 3 pick next year to take a QB. As much as I hated their strategy, I do really like the fits that Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan will be in Houston. They don't have much in terms of offensive weaponry but both should be able to make early impacts for their QB.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: D
Team Needs: OG, C, OT, CB; Team Wants: Slot WR, SS, OG, EDGE
Quarterback without Watson still shouldn't have been considered a priority, given that they signed Tyrod and traded for Ryan Finley. Not that either is competent enough to be a franchise QB, but the goal isn't winning in 2021. It is finding diamonds in the rough. Nico Collins will win a starting role considering that the WR room is full of oft-injured players. Wallow was worth four Day 3 picks to Houston so I am curious if they like him enough to start at LB (another non-position of need).
Most Likely to Succeed: Nico Collins
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Davis Mills
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Indianapolis Colts
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 7
1st Round: 21. Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan
2nd Round: 54. Dayo Odeyingbo, EDGE Vanderbilt
3rd Round: None
4th Round: 127. Kyle Grayson, TE SMU
5th Round: 165. Shawn Davis, S Florida
6th Round: 218. Sam Ehlinger, QB Texas
7th Round: 229. Mike Strachan, WR Charleston; 248. Will Fries, iOL Penn St
Trades:
IND traded Pick 206 to NO for Picks 218 and 229.
Draft Summary: The Colts have a very good roster but had 3 distinctive positions of need. They ignored CB and LT in the draft and went all-in on the EDGE spot, which has 2 starting vacancies. The issue is that Dayo tore his Achilles in the Pre-Draft process and will likely be out the entire year. Kwity, however, was a home run selection for them. Ehlinger is going to a really good program under Reich, who I believe can bring out the best in him as he did with Carson. He may not ever see the field but he should emerge as a capable backup.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: B-
Team Needs: CB, EDGE; Team Wants: WR, LB
The LT spot was addressed in FA the other day with the Eric Fisher signing, which I will discuss more on Monday. The only other thing that was checked off the list was one of the starting EDGE positions. Grayson could be a valuable pass-catcher for Carson as they shift to more 12 Personnel, which Carson thrived with in Philly, so that might eliminate the "want" for a WR. I am frankly very surprised that not a single CB was taken with their 7 picks.
Most Likely to Succeed: Kwity Paye
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Dayo Odeyingbo
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Tennessee Titans
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 8
1st Round: 22. Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech
2nd Round: 53. Dillon Radunz, North Dakota St
3rd Round: 92. Monty Rice, LB Georgia, 100. Elijah Molden, CB Washington
4th Round: 109. Dez Fitzpatrick, WR Lousiville; 135. Rashad Weaver, EDGE Pittsburgh
5th Round: None
6th Round: 205. Racey McMath, WR LSU; 215. Brady Breeze, S Oregon
7th Round: None
Trades:
TEN traded Pick 85 to GB for Picks 92 and 135.
TEN traded Picks 126, 166, and 232 to CAR for Pick 109.
Draft Summary: The Titans know my brand guys. Dillon Radunz in the late 2nd? Elijah Molden almost on Day 3? Those are steals in my book and are going to be instant contributors for the Titans, even if Farley doesn't start right away because of injuries. Monty Rice was the only thing keeping this grade from being an A+. Dez Fitzpatrick is a really interesting addition for Tannehill. He is a good route runner with plus contested-catch ability. I think he steps right into the place that Corey Davis left. Weaver could be a good rotational EDGE after an outstanding career at PITT.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: A-
Team Needs: TE, SS; Team Wants: NT, RG
Robinson clearly was not OK with his secondary last year and used 2 top 100 selections there. Farley was possibly the best corner prospect in the last 5 years but injuries had him fall down the board. Elijah is a nickel corner which should allow Fulton to play on the outside next year when Jenkins is gone. Radunz played LT in college but I feel like he could be a Day 1 RT or RG.
Most Likely to Succeed: Dillon Radunz
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Monty Rice
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Atlanta Falcons
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 9
1st Round: 4. Kyle Pitts, TE Florida
2nd Round: 40. Richie Grant, S UCF
3rd Round: 68. Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan
4th Round: 108. Darren Hall, CB San Diego St; 114. Drew Dalman, iOL Stanford
5th Round: 148. Ta'Quon Graham, DT Texas; 182. Adetokunbo Ogundeji, EDGE Notre Dame; 183. Avery Williams, CB Boise St
6th Round: 187. Frank Darby, WR Arizona St
7th Round: None
Trades:
ATL traded Pick 35 and 219 to DEN for Picks 40 and 114.
Draft Summary: The deal with Pitts is all about taking the best player available and it is super easy when he is a generational talent. They don't come around very often and the Falcons had the pleasure of having one for many years now in Julio. That pick is justified. Trading back and collecting an early 4th round pick and selecting Richie Grant in the 2nd was also excellent (though they may have been targeting Holland). I love the value of Mayfield in the 3rd but he is so raw. He needs time to bake. Dalman on the other hand could be a day 1 interior player. 4 of their 9 selections came from Senior Bowl players (Grant, Hall, Ogunedji, Darby).
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: A-
Team Needs: SS, EDGE, OLB; Team Wants: CB
The selections in this draft felt more like they were based around building for the future while still giving this years team a chance to win. Grant, Pitts and Dalman are the only players I expect will be starters in 2021 but Williams, Darby, and Hall all will be special teams guys. Ogundeji has a path to playing time in the future as well. The Falcons OL is set in 2021 but their cap is a mess in the future and they may need to reset the OT position. That is when Jalen could slide in.
Most Likely to Succeed: Richie Grant
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Jalen Mayfield
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Carolina Panthers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 11
1st Round: 8. Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina
2nd Round: 59. Terrace Marshall Jr, WR LSU
3rd Round: 70. Brady Christensen, OT BYU; 83. Tommy Tremble, TE Notre Dame
4th Round: 126. Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma St
5th Round: 158. Daviyon Nixon, DT Iowa; 166. Keith Taylor Jr, CB Washington
6th Round: 193. Deonte Brown, OG Alabama; 204. Shi Smith, WR South Carolina; 222. Thomas Fletcher, LS Alabama
7th Round: 232. Phil Hoskins, DT Kentucky
Trades:
CAR traded Pick 39 and 151 to CHI for Picks 52, 83, and 204.
CAR traded Pick 52 and 113 to CLE for Picks 59 and 89.
CAR traded Pick 73 and 191 to PHI for Pick 70.
CAR traded Pick 89 to HOU for Picks 109, 158, and a 2022 4th round Pick.
CAR traded Pick 109 to TEN for Picks 126, 166, and 232.
Draft Summary: I loved this draft. The Panthers were in on every single trade on Day 2. They acquired 4 extra picks from their 5 trades and I loved what they did with them. It sounded like the 8th pick was between Horn and Fields and they weren't considering Slater with that pick, which is interesting. Christensen in Round 3 could start for them at LT, but is going to be very raw coming in. Getting Marshall after 2 trade downs is insane value. Once thought of as a 1st round prospect, medical concerns dropped him down draft boards. I really like him to be an immediate contributor assuming health. Tremble is the best blocking TE in this class which is perfect for this run-first team. I also want to highlight Nixon, who I thought could be taken much earlier, Deonte Brown, who is a massive guard, and Shi Smith, who I think will all have a shot to be contributors in year 1.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: A
Team Needs: LT, OG, FS; Team Wants: None
I am unsure if either Christensen or Brown will be ready enough to start for the Panthers in 2021, so I am not going to cross those off as needs. Slot WR will be well taken care of between Marshall and Smith, but I think Smith is good enough to take that job by himself. Horn reinforces the secondary which added AJ Bouye in an offseason attempt to reshape it. Every other piece added is just a necessary depth addition. Assuming they get a few hits in this draft, Carolina might be ready to turn the corner soon if Darnold can turn it around.
Most Likely to Succeed: Tommy Tremble
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Brady Christensen
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New Orleans Saints
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 6
1st Round: 28. Payton Turner, EDGE Houston
2nd Round: 60. Pete Werner, LB Ohio St
3rd Round: 76. Paulson Adebo, CB Stanford
4th Round: 133. Ian Book, QB Notre Dame
5th Round: None
6th Round: 206. Landon Young, OT Kentucky
7th Round: 255. Kawaan Baker, WR South Alabama
Trades:
NO traded Picks 98 and 105 to DEN for Pick 76.
NO traded Picks 218 and 229 to IND for Pick 206.
Draft Summary: The Saints explored moving up for Horn and Surtain but neither made it out of the top 10, so they stuck at 28 and took their best available EDGE. Turner was a Senior Bowl standout and a guy I really liked, but I wasn't expecting him in the 1st round. The Saints are not afraid of taking EDGE guys earlier than others may view them though (Marcus Davenport in 2017). Pete Werner is a sideline to sideline LB who is big enough to fill run gaps. Adebo was looked at as a round 1 guy back in 2019 but had fallen since then. Book shouldn't be expected to play above Taysom or Jameis but he is very intelligent and competitive, not unlike Drew Brees. They can afford to give him some time.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: B
Team Needs: WR; Team Wants: TE, DT
It seems clear to me that this draft was very focused on need positions. Their top 3 needs all came on defense and all were attacked with fervor. They have desperately needed another LB alongside Demario Davis and Werner can definitely fill that spot. Turner is not as raw as Davenport and could beat him out for starting reps right away. Adebo will also be thrust into a starting spot given the lack of depth at the position.
Most Likely to Succeed: Pete Werner
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: Landon Young
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Draft Capital: Total Picks: 7
1st Round: 32. Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington
2nd Round: 64. Kyle Trask, QB Florida
3rd Round: 95. Robert Hainsey, OG Notre Dame
4th Round: 129. Jaelon Darden, WR North Texas
5th Round: 176. KJ Britt, LB Auburn
6th Round: None
7th Round: 251. Chris Wilcox, CB BYU; 259. Grant Stuard, LB Houston
Trades:
TB traded Picks 137 and 217 to SEA for Pick 129.
Draft Summary: One thing that surprised me was that Tampa only traded up one time and it was in the 4th round for a kick returner. I know they had no needs but making a bold move up for a guy they really believe in made sense to me. Especially in a year with so many question marks. Maybe they tried, who knows. Tryon is a perfect scheme fit for the Bucs 3-4 OLB spot. He is a bigger guy and will hold up against the run as well as show off some pass-rushing moves. Trask feels kind of like a wasted pick. His ceiling is very limited and I doubt they turn to him when Brady retires. Hainsey is a good player and should switch from tackle to guard in the pros. He doesn't have center flexibility and will only be called on as a backup.
Day 1 and Day 2 Grade: B-
Team Needs: None; Team Wants: FS, C, CB, OT
There were honestly no team needs. A few upgradeable positions for depth and the future but this section is basically useless for Tampa's roster. The EDGE position was one spot that could have used more top-end depth just so JPP and Barrett are fresh for the playoffs. The only other spot that was addressed even as a "want" was Darden as a possible kick returner. At 5-9, 170lbs, he has real speed and did have relative success there in college.
Most Likely to Succeed: Joe Tryon
Most Likely to Ride the Struggle Bus: KJ Britt
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Which team will have the best draft class in the AFC/NFC South? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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