Fantasy Segment: Rookies With a Bright Future - 5/5/21

Well with the Draft over we have a fresh batch of rookies that will be entering the radar of all fantasy football players come July and August. I did an article like this for the NFL Free Agents and I wanted to do the same thing for our rookies. Keep in mind the tiers that I have set forth are not expectations but rather distinct possibilities for where they could be by the end of the season. Let's talk fantasy.

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Quarterbacks

Tier 1 - Starters from Week 1

Trevor Lawrence to Jacksonville - Trevor has the highest floor of all the incoming rookie QBs. He is going into a system he should be very familiar with and he will have a RB that he is very used to in Travis Etienne. The fact that he will be a starter from week 1 is helpful but honestly, he still shouldn't be drafted in a normal 1QB league. Superflex only.

Zach Wilson to the New York Jets - Wilson will be a fantastic fit in Mike LaFleur's/Kyle Shanahan's offense. Given the friendliness the system provides to the quarterback, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Wilson outperforming Lawrence by the end of the season. But I would caution that he will have a much bigger jump to make to the NFL level than Trevor will because of the competition and style of offense adjustment.

Tier 2 - Likely starters at some point in 2021

Mac Jones to New England - Honestly, I think Mac has a decent shot to beat out Cam Newton from the jump. The system that Cam will run to be successful will be much different than Mac's. I wouldn't be surprised if in camp we see them back to a system they ran under Brady, thus phasing out Cam. Even if Mac starts Week 1, Mac's ability to light up the box score will rely on the playcalling and playmakers getting open. Mac is great at throwing an accurate ball but he doesn't offer anything on the ground, which is huge for QBs in 2021.

Justin Fields to Chicago - Fields is the guy I'd be most willing to take a swing on in this rookie class. He has the best WR among the top rookies drafted (Allen Robinson) and is very accurate on deep balls (Darnell Mooney/Dazz Newsome). Not to mention his two big safety nets with Kmet and Jimmy Graham. I don't think he will start from Week 1 which should mean he goes undrafted and you can snag him on waivers.

Davis Mills to Houston - Watson isn't playing in 2021. Davis probably won't beat out Tyrod to start the season but Tyrod has a capped ceiling. We know what he is. In what will likely be a lost season, giving Mills some game reps will be huge for his progression. He only started 11 games at Stanford so he needs more than just practice time.

Tier 3 - Could Sit out the entire 2021 Season

Trey Lance to San Francisco - I don't think any of us would be surprised to see Lance sit the whole year and come out on fire like Mahomes did in his 2nd year. That being said, Trey was the 3rd overall pick. It is insanely rare to see a team sit on a 1st round QB in today's NFL, let alone a top 5 pick. Last year, Tua sat for the first 6 games of the season. Only 3 QBs in recent memory sat longer as 1st rounders. Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. If you forget everything I just said and told me Trey was starting week 1, he would be my top-rated rookie QB.

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Running Backs

Tier 1 - RB2

Najee Harris to Pittsburgh - I had Najee Harris in my 'Top 50 Wayyyy Too Early Rankings' article back in January. Pittsburgh is the perfect landing spot for him, but the OL really concerns me. I think Najee will be able to succeed as far as fantasy goes because he will be a bellcow, but I don't expect him to be efficient.

Michael Carter to the New York Jets - Yes I have Micahel Carter ahead of Etienne and Javonte. 4th round pick and I don't care. Carter is going to such a perfect scheme for his playstyle and his only competition is LaMichael Perine. Rookie RBs can shine no matter what round they are drafted in. The Wide-Zone scheme and propensity to run in a Shanahan style offense will give Carter a bellcow type status and that doesn't even include the catches.

Tier 2 - RB2 Upside but low floor

Travis Etienne to Jacksonville - I have been harping that Jacksonville could be looking to move on from James Robinson given he doesn't fit Urban's offensive style. I don't think he or Carlos Hyde will be completely discarded, but you don't pick a 1st round RB and not use him. Especially because of how comfortable Trevor will be with him. That factor cannot be understated.

Javonte Williams to Denver - No one paid much attention to Phillip Lindsay leaving for Houston, but I added RB as a late "want" for the Broncos as I had a sneaking suspicion. Melvin Gordon won't be let go, but he is in the final year of his deal and Javonte is just too good of a player. If Melvin got hurt, Javonte would be an RB1 in my opinion.

Tier 3 - Path to a Meaningful Snaps

Trey Sermon to San Francisco - San Fran drafted two RBs in this draft. Mostert will still be the starter on Day 1 but I wouldn't be surprised if Sermon gets some run, as they always have multiple backs getting touches in any given game. Guessing which 49ers RB is always fun but with an injury above him, he will have great fantasy potential. For now, he is just a stash.

Larry Rountree III to the Los Angeles Chargers - The last Chargers regime was very much involved with Ekeler on all 3 downs, as they should be. However, I have no idea how Joe Lombardi is going to run this offense. The Saints rotated 2 RBs all the time. I'm not saying Rountree is going to beat out Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelly, but neither of those guys was drafted by these coaches. There's a chance here.

Gerrid Doaks to Miami - If there was a James Robinson of 2021, Doaks fits the description. Bigger back, not a UDFA but the 7th round is close enough, Florida team. EZ comp. Miami's RB room is lacking top-end talent and Doaks is not that, but he does offer a skillset only one other RB on the Dolphins possesses. Goal-line strength. The Dolphins were famous early in 2020 for getting Jordan Howard 6 touchdowns on only 7 rushing yards. Gaskin is still the starter and he has to beat out Malcolm Brown, who is a good all-around back. But I wouldn't be surprised if Doaks has a couple of top 10 fantasy weeks.

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Wide Receivers

Tier 1 - Top 20 WR

None

Tier 2 - Ranked 20-30 WR

Ja'Marr Chase to Cincinnati - The Burrow-Chase connection was the #1 story in College Football in 2019 and I have no doubt it will continue in 2021 after a year-long hiatus. Chase is a special talent and that chemistry is going to be important for Burrow. That being said, I don't have him breaking into the WR2 category because of how deep the position is and Higgins/Boyd are still notable pass catchers in their own right.

Amari Rodgers to Green Bay (with Aaron Rodgers) - I loved this fit for Amari. GB hasn't had a dependable slot WR since Randall Cobb left and Amari's comp going into this draft was... Randall Cobb. Now, that is probably projecting for his ceiling but having a route runner that Rodgers can count on is imperative. He knows where Davante is going to be and feeds him. Same idea with Amari.

Tier 3 - Ranked 31-40 WR

Devonta Smith to Philadelphia - There is a connection between Hurts and Devonta but it spans all the way back to the 2017-18 season at Alabama, where Hurts was not a dynamic passer. I still have reservations about Hurts' accuracy but Devonta is going to be in the top 3 in terms of targets on Philly's roster and the #1 WR by a wide margin. That gives me hope that he can be a dependable flex player.

Nico Collins to Houston - Houston has a ton of issues but I really liked this pick. I also love when teams pair rookie QBs with rookie WRs. When they come in together and experience the same things at the same time, a bond is formed. It normally translates to the football field. But regardless of if Tyrod or Davis is throwing him the ball, Nico has a very fantasy-friendly skillset with his ability to win in contested situations.

Cornell Powell to Kansas City - Kansas City needed a new pass catcher with Sammy Watkins gone. Mahomes needs someone he can trust besides Kelce and Hill. Powell is 6-0, 210 lbs and really came on strong in 2020. He didn't have much trust from Trevor Lawrence, which is a slight concern. However, I won't be surprised when I hear that Powell is having an excellent training camp.

Tier 4 - Ranked 41-60 WR

Josh Palmer to the Los Angeles Chargers (if Mike Williams is gone) - Herbert has a cannon for an arm and he and Mike Williams hooked up a few times for huge plays in 2020. I'm not sure if Mike Williams is going to be playing for the Chargers this year given his contract and the Palmer selection. Josh wins in a lot of the same ways as Mike does, but for $9M cheaper. 

Amon-Ra St Brown to Detroit - On Day 3, the Lions found a diamond. I'm not saying Amon-Ra is going to be the next superstar. But he reminds me a lot of Juju (not just because of the USC thing) and that type of player is what Goff is used to from the Rams with Kupp. I don't think Goff is going to have a fantastic year in Detroit given a downgrade at the OL, WR, and RB positions. That being said, I think Amon-Ra will lead the WRs in targets, which is to be noted in fantasy.

Jaylen Waddle to Miami - I am not expecting much from the 6th overall pick in terms of someone I can trust in fantasy, but there is a connection with Tua. Tua was one of the more accurate deep ball passers coming out of college and Waddle is quicker than fast. One single play and he could get you 10+ points.

Rashod Bateman to Baltimore - I have to remind myself that as much as I love this pairing I need to expect it to go south. Lamar just isn't that accurate on intermediate throws. Bateman can be the alpha WR the Ravens so desperately need, but I worry that WRs of his skillset are just useless in this scheme. The ceiling is the roof, but the floor is lava.

Shi Smith to Carolina - Curtis Samuel is now in Washington and they didn't get another slot to take his place (they drafted Terrace Marshall who is more of an outside WR but has played slot). Shi has a lot of similar skills that Curtis showed in Carolina. Scrappiness, acceleration/burst, and reliable hands. I don't know if they will use him in the same vein but a guy can hope.

Dez Fitzpatrick to Tennessee - With Arthur Smith leaving for Atlanta, I wonder if Tennessee will use fewer TEs and more WRs. Even if they don't, I am not terribly afraid of Racey McMath or Josh Reynolds as guys who will take over the WR2 or WR3 jobs. Dez has a very clear path to playing time early across from AJ Brown.

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Tight Ends

Tier 1 - Top 10

Kyle Pitts to Atlanta - The TE position in fantasy is continuously bad and rookies at the position do not normally produce. However, Pitts is an anomaly compared to other highly rated rookies like Hockenson or Howard. Pitts will hopefully line up at WR plenty and be able to really flex his muscles. I'd trust him as my starter.

Tier 2 - TE2

None

Tier 3 - Minimal Year 1 Impact but Interesting Dynasty/Keeper Stash

Hunter Long to Miami - Mike Geisicki and Durham Smythe are both impending FAs for the Dolphins. Hunter Long is more of a natural, do-it-all TE but he could co-exist if the Dolphins decided to bring back only one of the aforementioned. He is able to create separation on his routes and has a huge frame to be able to box out players as well. Miami also loves to run 2 TEs on the field.

Pat Friermuth to Pittsburgh - Eric Ebron is entering the final year of his deal so I don't expect Friermuth will do anything outside of fall into the end zone a few times in 2021. I also am concerned about his future only because we have no idea what is going to happen in Pittsburgh at the QB position. He is on this list because he is an every-down TE and is more than capable catching the ball. He will never be a top 5 TE though. Somewhere in the TE6-12 range is probably both his ceiling and his floor with a decent offense around him.

Brevin Jordan to Houston - Athletic TE, meet Rookie QB. Rookies tend to rely on guys they either come in with or that make things really easy for them. Brevin has a lot of speed and great YAC ability. He has a few veterans directly above him on the depth chart, but the hope would be that he can learn from them and eventually make it onto the field as a pass-catcher.

Tre McKitty to the Los Angeles Chargers - He had virtually nothing going for him in 2020 at Georgia as they refused to throw to him. However, prior to his transfer from FSU, he was able to put his athletic prowess on display. The Chargers let Hunter Henry go in 2020 and only added Jared Cook who is old as dirt (#analysis). Donald Parham was an undrafted free agent so McKitty's path to snaps isn't too difficult.

Kenny Yeboah to the New York Jets - A priority undrafted free agent TE does not normally scream dynasty stash. However, Kenny is in an interesting situation. The Jets have really tried to get Chris Herndon going, but it just hasn't worked out. The Shanahan system features a lot of 12 and 22 personnel which will have 2 TEs on the field and sometimes even a TE disguised as a fullback. Kenny has a path to getting snaps and his extensive route tree and great hands could render him a starter in the future.

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Which of these players is due for a big breakout with their new team? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.