Monday Minute: Deshaun Watson Legal Edition - 3/29/21
Wow. Never underestimate the NFL making a ton of news in any given week. I was really afraid it was going to be a sleepy Monday Minute like last week. A couple of huge topics with the Deshaun Watson legal situation and the Dolphins two blockbuster draft trades, plus a ton of signings to fill team needs and some other small news bits. Let's just get to it.
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What is going on with Deshaun Watson?
First things first, I want to start with the facts as I am aware of them at Midnight on March 29th. Thus far, there have been 16 civil lawsuits filed against Deshaun Watson claiming sexual misconduct. All of them claim that these acts happened during massage sessions. Two of these suits also claimed sexual assualt.
Two things I want to say off the top. First and foremost, I feel terrible for these ladies. If they were put in a situation that made them feel uncomfortable or worse, I am heartbroken for them. At the same time, if Watson is innocent, I feel awful for him and his reputation. I am not on either side of this debate and no one should be. There is no winner in this. Only losers.
With that being said, I am not going to speculate on what has been said on if Deshaun is guilty or if he will be cleared. I am going to talk about the football side of this. Obviously, Deshaun Watson is not going to be playing for the Texans in 2021 or ever again. That much has been clear from Deshaun's side for over 2 months now. With these legal battles going on it will be a question of whether he plays at all in 2021.
Some players have off the field legal battles over various crimes. 99% of those legal battles are able to be put on hold until after the season and it doesn't affect that players standing with the league. For instance, Melvin Gordon had a DUI charge against him last season and he was able to get the trial delayed until April and then the charges were dropped prior to the trial. Melvin played the 2020 season without a suspension, fine, or any time spent on the Commissioner's Exempt List.
Most of those charges amounted to nothing as far as the NFL is concerned. But I have a hard time believing that this will not catch the League Office's attention. A few years back, the NFL had the Ray Rice situation on their hands. They botched it by only giving him a 2 game suspension after video surfaced of him carrying his unconscious girlfriend out of an elevator. Two. Games. The NFL later tried to correct the issue by suspending him indefinitely. In November of the same year, he was reinstated but had been released by the Ravens a few months prior. He didn't play another down in the NFL. Since then, the NFL has been a bit harsher, but also more cautious, and normally waits for court proceedings to take place.
Now there is a difference in these situations. First, Ray Rice ended up marrying his girlfriend a few weeks after the incident and she gave him total support the entire time. She never pressed charges. The women in these cases against Deshaun are obviously not in the same situation. Second, though criminal charges have not been filed as of this time, the lawyer for these women has continually said they will be. When criminal charges of this magnitude have been filed in the past, the NFL has acted with either suspensions or being placed on the Exempt List.
For Deshaun, my best guess is that he will be placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List until there has been either a resolution or some work done in the courts. If this situation is ongoing into training camp, Deshaun won't be playing in 2021.
Based on the above paragraph, I believe the contract for Deshaun will toll and if he doesn't play in 2021 he will have 4 years left on his deal. 7 players have landed on the Exempt list in the last 12 seasons. 5 of them made it off the list and continued playing.
As for his trade value today, honestly the Texans still have to hold him in high regard. They can't give away a player of his talent because he is in a legal battle. He won't be traded until this situation has been resolved. However, if this situation is resolved and Deshaun can play football again at some point, I have to think his price will be lower than it had been expected to come in at. The Texans should be looking to move him if they can, but moving him for anything less than at least two 1st round picks would be poor value.
To reitoriate, there are no winners here. I feel terrible for these women. I feel terrible for Deshaun. I just hope this situation ends with the least amount of pain possible for all.
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Dolphins Draft Trades
First off, lesson learned. Don't do 2 round mocks anymore. They are a pain in the butt to complete and give write-ups for, but also as soon as the mock goes live NFL teams are going to blow up the draft order. I won't make that mistake again.
Here are the details of the two trades.
The San Francisco 49ers trade the 12th overall pick, their 2022 1st round pick, their 2022 3rd round compensatory pick (from the Jets hiring Saleh), and their 2023 1st round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the 3rd overall pick.
The Miami Dolphins trade the 12th overall pick, the 123rd pick (4th round), and their 2022 1st round pick (Miami's not the pick they got from SF) to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 6th overall pick and the 156th pick (5th round).
So I will try to keep my thoughts impartial at first and then I will get into my thoughts as a Dolphins fan.
First, I don't think the 49ers trade goes through if the trade back up to 6 with Philly doesn't work. (Obviously, they wouldn't need to move up from 12 to 6. I mean I think these trades are connected.) If we take a look at this draft trade value chart the trades are both a little "uneven" at first glance. You have to take 1 thing into consideration though. The 49ers are trading up for a QB. That basically means you can put what they have to give up and times it by 1.5x.
So 2 1st round picks and a late 3rd round pick next year to move up 9 spots for their QB of the future. Because we don't know where the 49ers will end up in each of the next 2 years, I will just assume a playoff finish each year and because they will have a rookie QB I'll give them the 24th spot each year, which is a 2nd round exit.
With that assumption, the 2 1st round picks plus the 12th pick this year is worth 740x2 + 1200 = 2680. Adding in the last 3rd round pick will add another 80 points so 2760 total points. HOWEVER, future picks are generally considered at a discounted rate because you can't use them this year. So let's knock the 740 down to 400 and the 80 to 50. So doing some quick maths means...
... the 2760 total points is really more like 2000 or so. (The slashing of those prices are total estimates and the way the league values picks is different to each team.) Ok but how much does the 3rd overall pick cost? 2200. This trade is a lot more even if you consider the discounts. If you ignore the discounts, Miami wins this trade hands down. And obviously, if the 49ers don't make the playoffs or if they make the Super Bowl makes a huge difference on the values for this trade.
Let's take a look at the Philly trade. So we already know the 12th pick is worth 1200 points. The 123rd pick is worth 49 points. If we assume Miami makes the playoffs next year (I don't believe it will happen because I am a tortured fan) but makes an early exit, that pick will be about 850 or so. Those all added up equal 2100 points. Consider the discount again and that 1st rounder in 2022 goes down to about 500, so around 1750. On the Eagles side, the 6th pick plus the 156th pick? 1627. Again, if you ignore the discounts, Philly wins this hands down but with estimates, it is a fairly even trade.
So now you are asking yourself "ok but you said you don't think the one trade happens without the other". Yes and I believe that for a few reasons. If the Dolphins consider themselves big winners from the first trade, they may believe that giving up a little more to get back into the top 6 is worth it. The Dolphins had also been doing research on the top non-QBs for an entire year because Tua is their QB. By now they are very familiar with the crop of pass-catchers between Chase, Pitts, Waddle, and Smith. They know which ones they like and which they don't. So if they move back 3 spots but they know that 3 of the 5 spots ahead of them will be QBs and either another will be a QB or Sewell, then they will get their choice between at least 3 of the top 4 guys. They at least, LOVE two of those 4 otherwise they would have stayed at 3 and selected their favorite.
Why not stay at 12 though? You get 2 1st round picks in each of the next 2 years in that case. But they wouldn't have control over their fate anymore. They have to leave it up to everyone else to get one of those guys they LOVE. The Dolphins GM, Chris Grier, said going into the 2020 draft that "we have the power to do anything we want", and it is clear that they have that power again this year and with this SF trade the next few years. To me, if you stay at 12 you will still get either Devonta or Waddle. Maybe you have the choice of both. But if they only like 1 and not the other, why risk it?
Thoughts on the Dolphins moves: It kind of changes. I like that they moved back and got an extra 1st round pick in each of the next 2 drafts. That is huge flexibility to do anything you want in either of those drafts and it keeps the window of a Watson trade alive. The Philly trade is a bit questionable because we did give up a lot and we are also making a big bet that we will finish with a better record than San Francisco next year. If the 49ers make the playoffs and the Dolphins don't, that will be a huge mistake. Do I wish they just did the 49ers deal and not the Eagles? Yes and no. When I am thinking about all of the picks, it hurts to only have the 1 next year. But being in the top 10 and making sure we select the WR (or Pitts) of our choice is huge. Kiper tweeted the other day that he is hearing that it will either be Devonta or Waddle for Miami, which makes me dislike the trade back up more but whatever. I personally hope it is Pitts or Waddle. Final thought, if Miami can somehow move down to 8 or 9 (Carolina or Denver) because another team wants to move up for a QB and we can pick up more picks, this will be a masterstroke. Would I change anything? No. Am I happy about it? I'm rarely happy.
Thoughts on the 49ers move: They gave up a lot. 2 future 1sts and a future 3rd is a ton but John Lynch makes these bold moves every single season and I'm not shocked. I also really like the 49ers roster with a young QB. However, if the pick is Mac Jones or Justin Fields I will be totally lost. Trey Lance is the perfect QB for this system and will create even more mismatches than there already are. I know that Jimmy is probably the perfect QB to lead this team one more season, but the 49ers can really do something this year if they get his contract off the books and sign a few more FAs. Their injuries derailed them last year and I like their chances at a playoff spot, even though their division will be tough. It is really amazing that they didn't give up any 2021 picks to Miami. They have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and three 5ths. They need to hit on those picks to start to maximize the rookie QB contract window.
Thoughts on the Eagles move: I know Eagles fans might be upset but they shouldn't. This is exactly what they needed to do assuming they weren't selecting a QB. Acquire as many picks as possible and begin to build around Hurts. I don't expect that their 2021 season will go well and Ja'Marr Chase wasn't going to fix that all by himself. They have a lot of holes and are playing the long game. With an extra 4th from Miami and 3rd from Indy in 2021, they can begin to build this year and continue it with three 1st rounders next year or put together a huge package to get any QB in 2022. It isn't expected to be a great QB class next year with Sam Howell (UNC) and Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma) considered the top guys, but we have had guys come out of nowhere like Joe Burrow and Zach Wilson.
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A Bunch of Needs are Filled
There were a lot of Wave 2 signings this week. Below are all of the ones that I believe were significant enough to fill a team need and scratch off what the team will look for in the draft.
The Giants weren't done after signing Kenny Golladay. They followed up by getting CB Adoree Jackson for 3 years $39M. The Giants, who had very little cap room coming into free agency, continue to make these long term, high money deals for players that didn't have other suitors at the price they signed at. Gettleman probably feels he is on the hot seat (and rightly so), but I am not a fan of either of these moves. Jackson is an alright player but to me has to improve in his man coverage ability. He is faster than any guy he is covering yet he can't stay in the hip pocket.
Another former Titans CB inked a deal last week. The Cardinals signed CB Malcolm Butler and will pair him with CB Robert Alford on the outside. They have Byron Murphy in the slot and are probably OK with going into the season with those 3 as their top guys. I wouldn't put it past them to try to upgrade at this position though because both Alford and Butler are on 1 year deals. Steve Keim has done a good job at upgrading and patching up in free agency this offseason. Patrick Peterson was a good corner but he got paid $4M more than what Butler will cost AZ.
The Bills answered their 3rd RB question by signing RB Matt Brieda. It doesn't seem like they were ever going to entertain the thought of a top back in the draft but now they don't have to. Moss is their goal-line back. Brieda is their 3rd down guy. Singletary is everything else.
TY Hilton makes the smart choice to resign with Indy. And especially at that dollar amount. He is being paid the same amount that the Dolphins are paying Will Fuller and apparently Hilton turned down higher offers? Yeesh. I am not sure what these teams are seeing in Hilton after all of these injuries that he could be worth that kind of money. Hilton will be a great resource and friend for Carson Wentz. He has been in the building for a long time and has been close with all of his starting QBs. It's a good deal for both sides regardless of money because the Colts had a ton of cap room.
If there were signings you better believe the Patriots made one of them. Resigning RB James White was a good idea even if his role is marginalized with Cam Newton at QB. A cool stat on James White, he has never fumbled in the NFL and has 678 touches.
Tampa continues to somehow make these moves to retain its own. They resigned both DT Ndamukong Suh and RB Leonard Fournette. They were able to afford it by extending LT Donovan Smith and moving the money around on his cap hit. I am a fan of Tampa bringing back both of those players but Smith isn't the player that I would have chose to restructure. There are better options out there at LT than him and possibly even on their own team with Wirfs. This will make it harder to move on from Smith in the future. But I understand it is all about continuity with them.
Perhaps the most shocking move of the offseason, the Packers resigned CB Kevin King. The cornerback that got absolutely toasted by Brady in the NFC Championship game is back in Green & Gold. My thoughts on this are actually different from my initial comment. Kevin King isn't an awful CB. He is probably a CB #2 on a lot of teams. But he really got exposed in that game and if I have the Packers on the schedule that is how I am attacking their defense. Make King have to cover a lot of space because he can't keep up with a speed guy. Now I understand it was Brady throwing and a lot of players have bad games against him. I just think the position can be upgraded on and maybe they still do that.
A very under the radar signing that I am a big fan of, the Falcons signed RB Mike Davis this week. Davis is one of those players that always shined in limited chances with the Seahawks and Bears, but never got a shot at carrying the load. When CMC went down in Carolina he got his chance and didn't look back. This is the perfect type of low-budget signing for Atlanta to make in a cap stricken year. Davis will have fantasy appeal in this offense as a RB3 at the very least.
The Ravens got Lamar Jackson some help when they signed WR Sammy Watkins. I don't think is the type of move that actually helps anyone though. Sammy is so consistently injured that I am surprised he hasn't retired. Lamar has a cannon for an arm but isn't too accurate. For fantasy purposes, I wouldn't count this as a positive for Lamar and it is a major downgrade for Sammy going from Mahomes to Lamar.
Something that came across the feed yesterday was DT Tyson Alualu who had committed to sign with the Jaguars is pulling a 180 and is going back to the Steelers. The story goes that Tyson got COVID right before he was scheduled to go to Jacksonville to ink his contract. With the virus holding things up for 10 days, he had time to think and with his family, home, and kids in school locally, he decided to stay in PIT. He is an underrated nose tackle who played about half of the snaps for the Steelers last year.
A few weeks back the Seahawks chose to release EDGE Carlos Dunlap to save $10M. Well, he ended up resigning on a 2-year $16M deal. Cheaper for the team and a longer deal for Dunlap. They could probably still use another edge rusher though.
Not filling a need but rather creating one. The Seahawks wanted to restructure DT Jarran Reed's contract but Reed didn't want to play ball. The two sides agreed then to mutually part ways. Reed then agreed to a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday. He is a pretty underrated interior pass rusher.
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The Rest
Not that it is really important but Trevor Lawrence is not going to be attending the draft, instead opting to watch from Clemson with friends and family.
The only reason I mention that is because the NFL has released some information about how the draft is going to work. The city of Cleveland will officially be hosting the event. I assume this means that Roger Goddell will be in Cleveland to announce the 1st round picks, but I am not sure if that is confirmed. Some players will be in attendance as well as media and some fans. They are being cautious though and only allowing people that are vaccinated and masked to be in attendance.
As far as the teams go, team personnel will be allowed in their facilities for the draft as opposed to having to be in their own homes again this year. Reporters have noted that some GMs and coaches did enjoy having their family around during the process, so we may not see every team go back to "normal".
All in all, things are slowly going back to what we are used to seeing for the draft. This is important for what I expect will be more full stadiums in 2021. Stadiums may require vaccinations but I won't speculate on that. I am just glad we had a full 2020 season after so many thought there was no chance that it would happen.
Final note, the NFL has confirmed that the season will now include 17 games. I am honestly not a fan of having an odd number of games but it is very clearly an attempt to get closer to 18 regular-season games. But each and every week that is added is more money in the pot for the owners and players. Prepare for every record to be broken.
This will no doubt have an impact on fantasy seasons. I am curious if the standard will now be the playoffs going from Week 15-17. Or maybe it still starts in Week 14 and then in Week 16 and 17 there will be a 2-week championship/final. What if teams choose to sit players for injury preventative reasons earlier than just the final week now? There is a lot to consider and I think each fantasy league will be different.
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TOP 10 Games of March Madness 2021 so far
- Creighton vs UCSB, 1st round
- Texas Tech vs Arkansas, 2nd round
- Oral Roberts vs Ohio St, 1st round
- Oral Roberts vs Arkansas, Sweet 16
- Syracuse vs West Virginia, 2nd round
- Rutgers vs Houston, 2nd round
- UCLA vs Michigan St, First Four
- UCLA vs Alabama, Sweet 16
- Michigan vs LSU, 2nd round
- Abilene Christian vs Texas, 1st round
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What are your thoughts on the big draft trades? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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