Let's Talk About... 2021 Free Agency Wave 1 - 3/18/21

SURPRISE! Hooray!!! More... reading... oh. An extra article this week to help you with the flurry of moves that have happened through Thursday at 4am. Any moves that happen between 4 and 8 am when this drops don't count. Thats the rule.

There is a lot to get to but I want to give a short intro. I do not have every signing, tender, and trade that each team has made in here. I don't think anyone cares for that level of detail. But I do have about 90% of the deals done since free agency unofficially opened on Monday at the bottom of the article, if you care about them. If I knew the name of the player that was signed, I put them in this article.

Let's get into the top storylines of Wave 1 (Days 1-3) of 2021 Free Agency.

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Belichick tries to extend his career

This is the big one that everyone is talking about. However I wasn't freaking out too much. If I know Belichick at all, I know he is not making these moves without putting himself first. What I mean by that is no one player is going to make Bill's life difficult without being able to be tossed to the side. Not playing well? See ya. Bad locker room presence? Peace out. Is Tom Brady? Smell ya later. My thinking was that almost all of these contracts had relatively easy outs except for maybe the TEs. After taking a look at Spotrac and seeing the numbers for myself, I was correct.

Bill signed four 4-year deals, two 3-year deals, and four 2-year deals along with quite a few other 1 years. There is only one deal that he cannot get out of easily in year 2 (of the 3 and 4 year contracts) and that is TE Jonnu Smith. Every other player has a cap savings, if they are released, in year 1 or 2. Now, the goal of free agency isn't to cut the players you sign. But it is important to be able to pivot when neccesaary and Bill allowed himself plenty of flexibility. Great cap management.

One thing I really didn't like here was the double dip at TE after the double dip in the 2020 draft at TE. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both top 12 TEs in the league, so why marginalize them by having them play in the same offense? The cap hits are relatively soft this year, but in 2022 they are going to be the most expensive tight end room in the NFL. That is not really a position I want to be leading the way in terms of spending. I know they are a run heavy and short passing team with Cam at the helm, but it seems like a lot. And that is ignoring the talk about the rookies. I know they didn't impress too much last season but you basically have decided that you wasted two 3rd round picks already.

2 things I found very interesting:

The most the Patritos have given in guaranteed money in free agency ever happened in just the first 4 hours when the window opened on Monday.

Their first 4 signings were all within the first 4 hours and all with the same agent.

Ravens choose Quantity over Quality?

One of the bigger surprises so far has been the Ravens not resigning either EDGE Yannick Ngakoue or Matt Judon. I've spoken about how they traded a 3rd and 5th for Yannick just this season and only got one year out of him. It was a failure to be certain, but apparently they were priced out by the Patriots and Raiders.

The Ravens did choose to retain 3 defensive line pieces though, and possibly ones that are just as important. EDGE Bowser and McPhee are returning and McPhee was arguably better than both Judon and Ngakoue in 2021. They also resigned DL Derek Wolfe. The Ravens are one of the best defensive line factories in the NFL so I expect they will be looking there in the draft this year.

Jags sign Carlos Hyde?? And reinvest on defense

One of the things I was expecting this offseason was for the Jaguars new coach Urban Meyer to bring his spread college offense to Duval. And he still might, but that probably meant the end for RB James Robinson as the starter. Imagine my bewilderment when the Jags signed RB Carlos Hyde. Hyde played at OSU with Meyer but he isn't what I expect when I think of a zone style running scheme. 

Jacksonville had one of the scariest defenses just 4 years ago. Now only one of those players remains in LB Myles Jack. They have been building up this side for a few years now in the draft with 1st round selections DT Taven Bryan, EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson, and CB CJ Henderson. Now they are spending to get them over the proverbial hump. CB Shaq Griffen joins the team from Seattle (and his brother may not be far behind) . They acquired 3 DTs. They signed S Rayshawn Jenkins and theoretically have no NEEDS on the defensive side anymore. They could upgrade at safety and maybe LB, get some depth at EDGE. But they have a very very good defensive roster (on paper).

Cardinals hone in on the OL

Josh Rosen had several of his own problems, but as a rookie he was let down by his OL. Then the Cards drafted Kyler the next year and he was able to run away from his problems but was still pressured and sacked. "No more", said Steve Keim. Keim resigned his RT Beachum, who isn't all that great but could be a lot worse, and traded for one of the best centers in football Rodney Hudson.

Raiders dismantle OL but attack DL

Speaking of the Rodney Hudson, he was traded from Vegas. So was Gabe Jackson. And Trent Brown last week. They thankfully resigned 38 YEAR OLD Richie Incognito but only to a 1 year deal. The only explanation for tearing down a pretty decent OL is that they are going to try to trade for Russell Wilson... because he is used to terrible offensive lines.

The Raiders OL wasn't perfect and they also cost a lot of money so I can understand some of the reasons behind wanting to restart, but at least they are putting in some effort and dollars into fixing the DL now. 4 DL players signed in the first 3 days and one of them, Yannick Ngakoue, was one of the best pass rushers available. Spending big in free agency isn't always the greatest idea but I do like the idea of attacking singular spots over and over in the same year to get it right. As long as you can get out of deals easily.

Chiefs go hard after top OL

Elsewhere in the AFC West, Kansas City dismantled their OL last week and already is building it back up. The #1 most surprising signing so far has to be the Chiefs going after OG Joe Thuney. He was without a doubt the best guard and 2nd best OL available, but they are paying him $16M a year on average. That is a ton for a team that is already paying Mahomes and many others from the Super Bowl team that are still there. They also got Kyle Long out of retirement on a 1 year deal but unless Thuney plays center (I'd be even more stunned), Long will likely be a backup or a replacement for their RG if he retires from football. Apparently, the Chiefs were also in on LT Trent Williams before he resigned in SF.

Jets uneven performance

I want to bring up the Jets because they came in with a ton of money and they did make 2 big moves. Signing EDGE Carl Lawson and WR Corey Davis. The Lawson deal I support. $15M a year for an EDGE is steep but that is what they go for on the open market. Lawson was one of the better all around guys and will be great with Saleh. Davis on the other hand... that is where I struggle. I don't know if the Jets know this... but Davis isn't a WR1. $12.5M a year doesn't say we are paying you to be a WR1... but who is going to be then? Denzel Mims? Not a fan. I did like the Jarrad Davis signing though.

QB market resolves itself

Everyone was wondering about the QB carousel this offseason and rightly so. There have been big trades already but a huge domino in the Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson trade markets was going to be the Free Agent QBs. If a team that needed one passed on them, they were going to be either on the QBs from the Draft or a veteran yet to be traded. Chicago signed Andy Dalton. Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick. New Orleans signed Jameis Winston. New England signed Cam Newton. I don't think any of these moves would prevent these teams from selecting a QB as they were all 1-year deals. But I don't think Washington or New Orleans will because of other investments at the position. Chicago might be too low in the order to get Mac Jones... could the Patriots move up??? All of them are out of the Wilson and Watson sweeps though.

EDGEs go quick

On Day 1, 6 of the the top 10 EDGE rushers flew off the board. Since then 2 more have joined them and the really deep EDGE class is now old and wrinkly. Part of the reason for the acitivty is a reflection of how teams view the incoming rookie EDGE defenders. There are no players without serious questions. At least teams have a decent understanding of the pro guys. 

Shaq Barrett took a team friendly $17M AAV to stay in Tampa. Judon went to New England for $13.6M per. Yannick signed a fully guaranteed deal in Vegas for $26M over 2 seasons. Hendrickson signed in CIN for $15M a year. Tennessee paid $16.5M for Dupree after he was one of the last few available. Reddick signed a 1 year prove-it $8M contract. I mentioned Lawson in NY. Okwara resigned in DET for $13M and Floyd is back with the Rams for $16M a year. 

The top guys left are Jadaveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram, Carlos Dunlap, and Justin Hosuton.

Quiet teams that carry a big stick

I was really impressed by a few teams through three days. None of them made real splashy moves but they improved.

Buffalo resigned their 2nd string CB on a cheap deal and upgraded from John Brown to Emmanuel Sanders at WR for cheaper. They don't have much cap space and were able to make it work.

Denver made sure they took care of their own with DT Shelby Harris and EDGE Von Miller while also addressing a need at CB in Ronald Darby. I don't really think Darby is a good answer for that need, but they needed multiple bodies at this position.

Houston hasn't made one splash move, but they have signed nearly a dozen players to compete on their team and add depth. Houson was becoming a stars and duds team like the Rams in 2018 but then they started trading their stars away. This is a good way to start the rebuild.

The last team that was "quiet" was Minnesota. They signed 2 decent named players but there was hardly any buzz from the deals. DL is a major need for them and addressing it with DT Dalvin Tomlinson is a good start. Adding a veteran CB in Patrick Peterson, to help mentor the young CBs, was also a wise decision.

Parting Thoughts

A few thoughts when I look at all of these deals up and down... there are so many 1 and 2 year deals. The cap depression this year was really terrible for everyone but the Owners. Teams were forced to cut and restructure players to fit under a reduced cap number. Players are out of jobs or taking less money because teams can't afford to pay their contracts. And the owners are going to make an absurd amount of money in a few years when the TV contracts are renewed. The only good thing about these short-term deals is it allows the players to get back into the free agency pool when the cap number will skyrocket.

Agent Drew Rosenhaus, as of 7pm on Monday, negotiated $250M worth of contracts. It sounds like he takes only around 3% of the contract, which is one of the cheapest rates among NFL agents. That is still approximately $7.5M he made in less than one day.

Top 3 free agent classes thus far

I think Washington has knocked it out of the park. Fitz is a perfect QB to help mentor Taylor Heinecke and also allow them to continue to try to win games and a division. WR Curtis Samuel is resigning back with his coach that drafted in him in Carolina. He also was best friends with WR Terry McLaurin at Ohio St. Those two are going to be fun together. And then grabbing the top CB on the market in William Jackson is a great add to an already budding defense. 

Cincinnati might not win many offseason awards, but their signings are all very focused and smart. 4 players to help the horrific display of whatever they call that thing when their offense doesn't have the ball. But the key with these four signings is they are all relatively low-risk. EDGE Hendrickson can be cut after 1 year if he isn't who they thought he was. NCB Hilton can be cut after 1 year if they decide a slot CB isn't worth that kind of money. CB Awuzie same thing after 1 year. I also really have a crush on DT Larry Ogunjobi who signed for 1 year.

The Chargers came through with one of my "I hope this signing happens" from my top 10 on the Monday Minute. They broke the bank for C Corey Linsley to help out Herbert. They also kept prioritizing the OL by signing versatile OT/OG Fieler. They still need to get a LT and at least one more guard, but things are coming together here.

Possible 2022 Compensatory picks

This is going to be a total guess because the comp pick formula is incredible complex and no one really knows how to work it. But based on the deals made so far, here are some picks I think could be awarded.

Saints: 1 3rd

Cincinnati: 2 3rds

Pittsburgh: 1 3rd, 2 4ths 

Baltimore: 1 3rd, 1 4th

Rams: 1 4th

Seattle: 1 4th

Giants: 1 4th

Washington: 1 4th

Top remaining guys (according to PFF and me)

WR Kenny Golladay

WR Juju-Smith Schuster

S Anthony Harris

WR Will Fuller

CB Richard Sherman

CB Desmond King

EDGE Jadeveon Clowney

OT Russell Okung

OT Alejandro Villanueva

C Austin Reiter

RB Chris Carson

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ARIZONA CARDINALS

Cardinals resign RT Kelvin Beachum 2 years $4M, 3M in guarantees

Cardinals trade for C Rodney Hudson (and a 7th) from the Raiders for a 3rd round pick, 2 years $20M $3M guaranteed left on deal

Cardinals sign WR AJ Green 1 year $8.5M, 6M guaranteed

Cardinals sign K Matt Prater 2 years $7M (DOME)

ATLANTA FALCONS

No signings.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Ravens sign G Kevin Zeitler 3years $22M, 16M guaranteed, Potential out: after year 2 $7M cap savings.

Ravens resigned EDGE/LB Tyus Bowser 4 years $22M, $5M in incentives, $12M guarantees. Potential Out: After Year 2 $2.5M cap savings.

Ravens resigned EDGE/LB Pernell McPhee 1 year deal. compensation unknown

Ravens resigned DE Derek Wolfe 3 years $12M, $6.5M guaranteed. Potential Out: After year 1 $3.5M cap savings

BUFFALO BILLS

Bills sign WR Emmanuel Sanders 1 year $6M unknown guarantees

Bills resign CB Levi Wallace 1 year. Unknown compensation.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers sign LB Denzel Perryman 2 years. Money isn't in yet.

Panthers sign OT Cam Erving 2 years $10M, $8M guaranteed

Panthers sign EDGE Haason Reddick 1 year $8M, 6M guaranteed

CHICAGO BEARS

Chicago signs QB Andy Dalton 1 year $10M fully guaranteed, up to $3M more in incentives

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Bengals sign EDGE Trey Hendrickson 4 year $60M, 16M guaranteed. Potential out: after year 1 $7M cap savings.

Bengals sign CB Mike Hilton 4 years, $24M, $6M guaranteed Potential Out: After year 1 $3M cap savings.

Bengals sign CB Chidobe Awuzie 3 years $22M, $7.5M Potential Out: After year 1 $3M cap savings.

Bengals sign DT Larry Ogunjobi 1 year

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Browns sign S John Johnson 3 years $34M, 24M guaranteed. Surprising considering Browns have 2 young safeties in Grant Delpit and Ronnie Harrison. DC said that he wanted to play more DBs in 2020 but injuries derailed that plan. Potential Out: After year 2 $13M cap savings.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys resign CB Jourdan Lewis 3 year $16.5M, $8M guaranteed

DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos resign DT Shelby Harris 3 years $27M, 15M guaranteed. Potential out: after year 2 $9M cap savings.

Broncos sign CB Ronald Darby 3 years $30M, $19.5M guaranteed. Potential out: after year 2 $10M cap savings.

Broncos exercise 2021 option on EDGE Von Miller for  1 year $18M, $7M guaranteed

DETROIT LIONS

Lions resign EDGE Romeo Okwara 3 years $39M, $25M guaranteed 

Lions sign RB Jamaal Williams 2 years up to $7.5M

Lions traded for DL Michael Brockers from the Rams for a 7th round pick in 2023. Rams asked for restructure and he said no. Brockers "It's a level up [over Godd]" in regards to Stafford trade. Potential Out: If cut next year, $0 in dead cap

GREEN BAY PACKERS

No signings

HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans sign WR/KR Andre Roberts 2 years $5.5M, $2.5M guaranteed

Texans sign LB Kevin Pierre-Louis 2 years $7M, $2.5M guaranteed

Texans sign DT Maliek Collins 1 year unkown compensation

Texans sign DT Vincent Taylor 1 year $2M

Texans sign G Justin McCray 2 years $4M

Texans sign S Terrence Brooks 1 year $2M

Texans sign CB Terrance Mitchell 2 years $7.5M, unknown guarantees

Texans sign QB Tyrod Taylor 1 year worth up to $12.5M, base value is under $5.5M, 2M guaranteed

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts resign RB Marlon Marck 1 year $2M all guaranteed

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jaguars sign DT Roy Robertson-Harris 3 years $24M, $14M in guarantees. Potential out after year 2 $8M cap savings.

Jaguars sign RB Carlos Hyde 2 years $6M. Potential out after year 1 for pennies.

Jaguars sign CB Shaquill Griffin 3 years $44.5M, 29M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $13M cap savings.

Jaguars sign EDGE Dawuane Smoot 2 years $14M, $5M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 $4M cap savings.

Jaguars sign S Rayshawn Jenkins 4 years $35M, 16M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $6M cap savings.

Jaguars sign NT Tyson Alualu 2 years $6M, 4M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 for $2M cap savings.

Jaguars sign WR Marvin Jones 2 years $14.5M, 9M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 $3M cap savings.

Jaguars trade for DT Malcolm Brown from the Saints and give him a raise. 2 years $11M, 8M guaranteed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chiefs sign G Joe Thuney 5 years $80M, first 2 years fully guaranteed at $32.5M, 3rd year becomes fully guaranteed if on the team in 2022. Guarantee numbers come out to $48M. 2021 Cap hit is $4.5M. 1/4 of the Chiefs available cap. Potential out: after 3 years $12.5M cap savings.

Chiefs sign G Kyle Long 1 year $5M

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Raiders sign EDGE Yannick Ngakoue 2 years $26M, FULLY GUARANTEED $4M is for injury only but rolls to full if on the roster next March. No franchise tag clause.

Raiders resign G Richie Incognito 1 year $2.6M

Raiders sign LB Nicholas Morrow 1 year $5M, 4.5M guaranteed

Raiders sign WR John Brown 1 year $5.5M max

Raiders sign DL Solomon Thomas 1 year $5M

Raiders sign DT Johnathan Hankins 1 year $3.5M fully guaranteed

Raiders sign DL Quinton Jefferson 1 year. Numbers aren't in yet.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Chargers sign C Corey Linsley 5 years $62,5M, $26M guaranteed Potential out: After 2 years $5M cap savings

Chargers resign CB Michael Davis 3 years $25M, $15M guaranteed for their #2 corner Potential Out: after 1 year $5M cap savings

Chargers sign OT/OG Matt Fieler 3 year $21M, $14.5M guaranteed Potential Out: After year 2 $6.5M cap savings.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Rams resign EDGE Leonard Floyd 4 years $64M, $32M guaranteed. Potential Out: After year 2 $12M cap savings.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Dolphins sign QB Jacoby Brissett 1 year $7.5M max, 5M guaranteed

Dolphins sign RB Malcolm Brown 1 year $1.75M fully guaranteed

Dolphins sign CB Justin Coleman 1 year $2.75M

Dolphins sign DT Adam Butler 2 years up to $9.5M

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Vikings sign DT Dalvin Tomlinson 2 years $21M, fully guranteed, dead cap of $7.5M after 2 years expire.

Vikings sign CB Patrick Peterson 1 year $10M

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots sign EDGE Matt Judon 4 years $56M, 32M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $7.5M cap savings.

Patriots sign DT Davon Godchaux 2 years $16M, $9M guaranteed. 

Patriots sign TE Jonnu Smith 4 years $50M, $31M guaranteed (3rd season has $6M in guarantees). Potential out after year 3 $12M cap savings.

Patriots sign DB Jalen Mills 4 years $24M, 9M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $5M cap savings.

Patriots resign EDGE Deatrich Wise 4 years $30M, 10M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $4M cap savings.

Patriots sign WR Nelson Agholor 2 years $26M, 16M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 with $5M cap savings.

Patriots sign WR Kendrick Bourne 3 years $22.5M, 5M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 with $4M cap savings.

Patriots sign TE Hunter Henry 3 years $37.5M 25M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $10M cap savings.

Patriots sign DE Henry Anderson 2 year $7M, 3M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 $3M cap savings.

Patriots sign C Ted Karras 1 year $4M

Patriots sign LB Kyle Van Noy 2 years $13M (Pats got a 4th round comp pick for him in the 2021 draft because Miami signed him)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints resign QB Jameis Winston 1 year up to $12.5M with $7M in incentives, $5.5M guaranteed.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants sign DT Leonard Williams 3 years $63M, 45M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $18M in cap savings.

Giants sign WR John Ross 1 year $2.5M

NEW YORK JETS

Jets sign LB Jarrad Davis 1 year $7M (former 1st round pick)

Jets sign WR Corey Davis 3 year $37.5M, 27M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $10M cap savings

Jets sign EDGE Carl Lawson 3 years $45M, 30M guaranteed

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

No signings

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

No signings

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers resign CB Jason Verrett 1 year $5M

49ers sign EDGE Samson Ebukam 2 years $12M, 5M guaranteed. Potential out after year 1 cap savings $6M

49ers resign LT Trent Williams 6 years $138M, $55M guaranteed. Highest paid OL in history by $40M in total contract and by $0.01M in terms of per season.

49ers sign C Alex Mack 1 year $5.5M

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks sign TE Gerald Everett 1 year $6M guaranteed, $1m incentive

Seahawks trade for G Gabe Jackson from the Raiders for a 5th round pick in 2021. 2 years $19M left on deal. Can be cut at any time for with no dead cap.

Seahawks signed NT Poona Ford 2 years $14M.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Bucs resign EDGE Shaq Barrett 4 years $68M with 4M in incentives, $36M guaranteed

Bucs resign TE Rob Gronkowski 1 year $8M, $2M in extra incentives

TENNESSEE TITANS

Titans sign EDGE Bud Dupree 5 years $85M, 35M guaranteed

Titans sign DT Denico Autrey 3 years $21.5M, $9M guaranteed

Titans sign CB Janoris Jenkins everything unknown

Titans sign LB Jayon Brown 1 year $5.25M GREAT DEAL

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Washington signs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 1 year up to $12M $10M with $2M in incentives, $6M guaranteed

Washington signs CB William Jackson 3 years $42M, 26M guaranteed. Potential out after year 2 $12.5M in cap savings

Washington signs WR Curtis Samuel 3years $34.5M 

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What team do you think has done the best through 3 days? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.