Monday Minute: Carson Wentz is Traded Edition - 2/22/21
We had some rather large news come across my desk on Thursday. I told Twitter, follow me at @KyleTheCommish if you already don't, that I wanted to finish out my Team Needs series and then I would discuss Wentz in detail. However, there were also quite a few other newsworthy topics last week. I will hit on those first and the meat will be what Wentz will be cooking up in Indy. No more delays.
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I don't know how I missed this in last weeks Monday Minute... but the Pouncey twins, Mike (Chargers C) and Maurkice (Steelers C), both announced their retirement over a week ago. This is rather big news for both teams that have big OL issues this offseason. The Steelers are losing their LT, RT, and rotational OL (6th man) on top of Pouncey with very little cap room to work with. Maurkice retiring did save the team $8M in cap space, but that only brings them to $22M over the cap. Meanwhile, the Chargers haven't been able to fix their OL in years and Pouncey was supposed to come over and fix that. They have a few pieces but they need a new LG and LT, on top of center. now. There are some pretty good names on the FA market as far as centers go like Corey Linsley (GB, #1 rated center in 2020 on PFF), David Andrews (NE), Ted Karras (MIA), and Austin Reiter (KC). There are also a few center prospects in this year's draft I think will be Day 1 starters, Landon Dickerson (Bama) and Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma).
More news coming out of Pittsburgh... Big Ben might not be back after all? There have been some weird signals coming out of GM Kevin Colbert about Big Ben. Originally, it seemed like everyone wanted Ben to come back and give it one more go. But this week, Kevin said that they needed to take a step back and look at the situation. This is the first time the Steelers have ever really distanced themselves from Ben since he was drafted. And once an organization starts to distance, it is extremely difficult for them to reunite. The question is what will the Steelers do if Ben is released or does retire? They have no reliable QB on their roster and are in no position to acquire a top QB in the draft. Is this a white flag? The start of the rebuild in Pittsburgh?
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Carolina has begun gutting their veterans to get some extra cap space. Just in the past week, the Panthers have cut 4 players. DT Kawann Short, S Tre Boston, EDGE Stephen Weatherly, and P Michael Palardy. The punter is an obvious attempt to go cheaper at the position, saving a cool $2M. Weatherly had been reassigned to a backup role after signing a deal last season. The team drafted EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos and he has supplanted him. They are saving $5.9M with this release. Between Palardy and Weatherly there will be a $2.5M dead cap charge.
Short and Boston were both starters and leaders on the team that was around in the Super Bowl season. Boston had just resigned in Carolina last year. I assume his release will lead rookie Jeremy Chinn to take more snaps at safety rather than LB. They are marking Tre a Post-June 1 release. A Post-June 1 release is something you will start to hear a lot about in the coming weeks and it means that the team is going to spread his dead cap money out over this season and next season. It is just a way to help open up more money this season, but the team will still pay what is owed. In this case, the team is spreading out the $5M dead cap charge to $2.5 this year and $2.5 next. DT Kawann Short was probably the only Pro Bowl quality level player on the defense, but he missed most of 2020 with an injury and had 1 year remaining on his deal. He leaves an $11M dead cap charge and oddly they are not marking it as a Post-June 1 release. Carolina wasn't done yet. They also restructured C Matt Paradis' contract to save $4.7M. All of these moves have saved $20M and the team has about $28M in cap space room at the moment. I mentioned it in my Team Needs article on the Panthers, but they have their LT Taylor Moton as a pending FA right now. I assume they are going to try to keep him. Additionally, they are suspected to be heavily interested in acquiring Deshaun Watson and this could be to make room for his salary.
Final thing on Carolina, Teddy Bridgewater has unfollowed the Panthers on his social media, which is basically him just realizing he won't be the starter or won't be back for 2021. I expect that he will be traded or released this offseason unless Carolina really strikes out.
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Final 2 quick things before we talk Wentz. The Packers cut RT Rick Wagner and LB Christian Kirksey this week. Wagner came in last season from the Lions to compete for the RT job, but did not win the job initially. The Packers had quite a few OL injuries so Rick ended up playing in every game (starting in 11). As far as Kirksey goes, I already noted that the Packers needed to upgrade this position because this was the clear weak spot of the defense. The team agreed. These moves created $10M in cap space, which will leave the team around $13M over the cap.
And finally a good segway... the Eagles have released WR Desean Jackson. He played in a total of 8 games over the 2 seasons due to multiple injuries. The Eagles will save $5M in cap space. They have much more work to do especially because...
CARSON WENTZ WAS TRADED!!! Do you have blue balls after all that teasing? The $100M man is on his way to Indianapolis where he will fill a massive void left by Andrew Luck in 2019. Right off the bat, this trade is a Win-Win-Win. The Colts win because they get their franchise QB at a relative bargain for a QB that has shown MVP level play. He is going to make no more than $26M each of the next 3 seasons. That is going to make him about the 15th highest paid QB in the NFL for the remainder of his deal. That is great for Indy. This is obviously great for Carson Wentz. He gets to stay in an offense he knows and he gets to go to a coaching staff he trusts. Frank Reich was a big believer in Wentz throughout his time in Philly and made sure he was taken care of. Finally, this is a win for Philly because this could have played out much worse. They aren't Houston. I don't believe Howie Roseman should be in charge anymore, but he made the move he was forced into making after Doug Pederson and the front office selected QB Jalen Hurts last year and he played decently. I want to dive into each of these "wins" though because there is some stuff to unpack.
First, let's start in Philly. To the Eagles fans and media, you are not allowed to change your mind on if this trade is a win or a loss depending on Carsons play in Indy. As a Dolphins fan, listen to me, please. The trade has been completed and is done. You cannot look back at this trade and say, "Wow, look how good Carson is now. We got fleeced." The Dolphins traded Ryan Tannehill away for a 4th round pick. That was a big victory for Dolphins fans that knew there needed to be a QB change. I am still shocked we even got a 4th. At the time, Tannehill was a broken QB ruined by Gase and too many systems trying to get him to be a gunslinger. He goes to TEN, they played him the right way, and he is a Pro Bowler now. Knowing how good Carson can be, I expect he will reach his Pro Bowl level status again. Regardless of his play in Indy, the trade happened with what we know today, not what happens in the future. But the Eagles got a 1st (conditional 2nd round pick that will turn into a 1st if Carson plays 75% of the snaps, so basically if he doesn't get hurt) and a 3rd for him! That is a great return for Philly considering he did not want to go to Chicago and they were the last "colt" 😏 in the race.
This trade didn't even save $1M in cap room because there were so many guaranteed dollars left. In fact, this trade leaves almost $34M in dead cap on the Eagles books. For reference, that is the single highest dead cap hit in NFL history by over $10M. Jared Goff's dead cap hit for the Rams came in at $22M. Yes, the Eagles are screwed this year in cap space. They are spending 18% of their cap on a player no longer on their team and are still $42M in the shitter. The bright side? They don't have to pay him any of the following 3 years that they would have had to if he were on the team. They have a very young cheap QB who showed some promise and leadership abilities.
As good as Jalen Hurts looked, he also had some struggles. He had a 52% completion percentage, which is horrendous. He did have a top 5 attempted air yards per target rating, in his defense. The Eagles are aware of the up's and down's and are certainly planning on never drafting in the top 10 again. That is why they are reported to be in the QB market this offseason. Yes... the team that just traded away a shoo-in MVP candidate in 2017 with a 2nd round rookie QB that showed promise is back in the QB market. But honestly, it is smart for the Eagles to AT LEAST ENTERTAIN thoughts on selecting another rookie QB at the top of this draft. In fact, the Eagles know how much it takes to get into a position to select a rookie QB. In 2016, the Eagles traded 2 veteran players to the Dolphins to move up to the 8th overall selection from 13. Then, they traded the 8th pick, a 3rd and 4th rounder in 2016, a 1st round pick in 2017, and a 2nd round pick in 2018 to move up to the 2nd overall selection to take Carson Wentz. In other words, if you aren't selecting near the top, it costs a lot to get there. The Eagles are selecting at the #6 spot in this years draft and there are 4 good QB prospects in this year's draft. The Dolphins and Bengals will not be selecting a QB in the draft and lie at picks 3 and 5. My advanced math skills tell me that means there are 3 teams ahead of them that may take a QB. The Eagles may have a shot at one of the QBs unless a team from behind them (Carolina/Denver/SF?) make a move to jump them. If they have any shadow of a doubt about Hurts and they feel that one of these 4 QBs is better, they have to select the rookie QB at the top. Select a QB in the draft every single year until you get it right. Otherwise, you will be stuck in mediocrity.
If I am the Eagles, what do I do? That's a good question, my split personality. I would tear it all down. Howie Roseman has made enough missteps that he should be fired and I don't want to give him enough ammunition to screw up the team even more. I am personally not a believer in Hurts the football player, but I am a believer in Hurts the leader and perserverer. Hurts was kicked to the curb when Tua came to town in Alabama and he is receiving the exact opposite treatment in Philly. Give the kid 16 games to work with as an unquestioned starter. Besides, he is going to be short on supplies because I am tearing down the roster around him. If he can win and prove he is a truck with less talent, he deserves to be the starter. The Eagles are in such bad cap shape that by next year I want to start the season with $40M+ in space. There are so many "uncuttable" contracts because they would be worth more to keep rather than to cut. I don't care. These vets are taking up roster spots that they won't be around for after the rebuild. Guys like DT Malik Jackson, WR Alshon Jeffrey, OT Jason Peters, C Jason Kelce, TE Zach Ertz, EDGE Brandon Graham, DT Fletcher Cox. "I respect and appreciate your contributions to the Eagles over your career, but we are going to be heading into a rebuild and want to give you a chance to continue your career elsewhere." All of those players are over 30 years of age. The Eagles aren't winning a SB this year, cut bait and get some young players on this roster and build it up the right way.
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Let's keep the reverse order going and talk about why Wentz is thrilled. There are quite a few reasons that Wentz is happy today. Firstly, his new teammates are actually excited to play with him. I don't understand why but multiple Eagles players have publicly celebrated that Wentz is leaving. 2 Colts players immediately reached out to Wentz and shared how excited they were. Sure, some of that is being a good teammate and yada-yada, but that is the kind of energy that Carson clearly thrives on. In 2020, Carson and former Eagles HC Doug Pederson didn't even speak for months! Does some of this call into question Carson's leadership? Sure. But if you know anything about Carson know this... he is a great human being. I don't know whether he is a truck, a trailer, a leader or a follower... but he is a good guy that you want in your locker room.
Another great thing for Carson is he gets out of the shitstorm media market in Philly. Philadelphians will kiss you on your lips and then piss in your drink right after. They are so incredibly fickle and are ruthless when it comes to superstars of their sports teams. Indianapolis isn't a sleepy town by any means, but they are compared to the Philly market. Colts fans do love their QBs and they know a great one when they see it. In the past 20 years, they have seen Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning take them to the postseason many times. While there will be expectations for him to perform and win, there will not be public executions in the paper the following day if he does not.
Last thing to mention is that while the Eagles had a serviceable supporting cast, it is not to the level of Indy's. Indianapolis has a need at LT, but has a top 3 OL if they can fill that position with a plus-starter (above average). Carson took 50 sacks in 2020, and some of those were his own fault for holding on to the ball too long. But if I had to place a bet today, I would say he would be sacked 25 or fewer times this upcoming season. FYI, The lowest amount of sacks he has ever had is 28. They also have a few empty spots at WR, but they have rookies RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman that showed some great things in 2020. Indy was able to keep their 1st and 2nd rounder this year to fill voids either at WR or LT. The Colts also have a top 10 defense to boast which should be able to keep Carson in every single game. In other words... Colts roster>Eagles roster.
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Finally, we reach how did the Colts win this trade. Well, I already mentioned they get a franchise QB at a good salary point. But let's talk about what they paid to acquire him. A 3rd rounder in 2020 and a 1st rounder in 2021 (probably in the 20s). I talked about the Tannehill deal already which is a good base point, but let's talk about other QB trade deals. Specifically the Goff-Stafford trade. Jared Goff was moved from the Rams to the Lions. The Rams wanted to get Matthew Stafford and were offering a future 1st round pick plus another pick in 2020. Detroit was going to accept an offer from Carolina over this offer because it gave them another top 10 pick immediately (rather than waiting for a future 1st that would probably have been in the late 20s). The Rams then increased their offer by including Jared Goff... AND ANOTHER 1ST. Now, I said that Detroit was going to accept Carolina's offer. So this isn't exactly apples to apples. But the idea that Jared Goff was so worthless to LA that it cost them a 1st round pick to move him is what I'm focused on. They gave up two 1sts and took on significant dead cap money from Goff. Indy gave up one 1st. Now let's look at the Stafford side. Stafford is arguably a better QB that Wentz, though he has never taken his team to the heights Wentz took his team too. Stafford commanded a 1st and 5th (plus Bridgewater) from Carolina. The Bridgewater addition complicates things but that offer would have been accepted. My crazy math skills would tell me that a bridge starting QB who is owed less money than Goff + a 5th rounder = a 3rd rounder or better. So a top 10 pick plus a weird 3rd round math thing I just figured out. I infer to say that the Colts giving up next years first and a 3rd is the best "win" of all 3 QBs getting moved.
Another point I want to hit. Indy was in a really bad position to acquire a QB this year. They had a good team around them and made the playoffs because Rivers was able to make enough plays. But at pick 21, they had no chance at a top 4 QB and maybe not even Mac Jones. They needed to either sign a FA like Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston or trade for one. They got the 4th most coveted QB (1-Watson, 2-Lawrence, 3-Stafford) this offseason for my money.
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TOP 10 Best "Available" QBs in 2021
- Deshaun Watson
- Dak Prescott (I'm not really counting him because DAL won't let him go)
- Trevor Lawrence
- Matthew Stafford
- Carson Wentz
- Tua Tagovailoa (Also not really available unless Deshaun goes to MIA)
- Zach Wilson
- Justin Fields
- Sam Darnold
- Trey Lance
- Jameis Winston
- Jimmy Garoppolo
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What do you think of Wentz going to Indy? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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