Lets Talk About... Where JJ Watt will play in 2021 - 2/17/21

I know Wednesday is normally fantasy football day, but I can't get inspired to write fantasy content in February. If someone has a specific idea for a fantasy article I will consider it, but until at least the first wave of Free Agency has passed, I will be posting other content on Wednesdays. Speaking of Free Agency... Let's Talk about where JJ Watt will play in 2021.

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Similar to what I did for Deshaun Watson, I want to quickly dive into what has been reported recently about JJ Watt and where he may land.

Tom Pelissero and Mike Garofolo of NFL Network reported on Tuesday that there are 4 serious suitors, at this time, for JJ Watt. It hasn't even been a week since he was released and other teams have reached out to JJ in that time, but these 4 are "ahead of the pack" in terms of their interest. The Browns, Packers, Steelers and Bills are those teams. Also reported by these gents, JJ apparently has a mutual interest in playing in Cleveland and rushing alongside Myles Garrett.

Let's use those teams as a baseline, but by no means am I going to only include those 4 teams listed "in a headline" since I don't know the other teams that showed interest. And I specifically wanted to state "in a headline". As JJ was released, immediately the media started drumming up scenarios for where JJ would land and the 2 teams on everyone's lists were the Packers and Steelers. The Steelers are an obvious landing spot because of the connection that his brothers both play there. But I don't know how realistic that option is considering the cap issues the Steelers are having. The Packers are on the list because he went to college at Wisconsin, was born in the state, and grew up as a Packers fan. But similar to PIT, Green Bay doesn't have a ton of cap room and already has 2 capable EDGE rushers. The Steelers are at least losing Bud Dupree to free agency. My point? I'm sure PIT and GB have called and have interest in a former 3-time Defensive Player of the Year, but I wonder how much of what is being reported is fitting a narrative.

Mary Cay Cabot from Cleveland.com reported (she almost always nails her coverage of free agency and the draft for the Browns, but also has a somewhat National spotlight) that JJ is weighing 4 things above all else in choosing his free agency destination. Cap space, supporting cast, culture, and scheme. Let's do a quick rundown of each of these.

1. Cap Space - JJ still wants to be respectfully paid if he is paying attention to cap space. In my opinion, of the 4 this one may be the most flexible for JJ. He has made over $100M in the NFL based on his football contracts alone and has made much more off the field for his work with his TV show Ultimate Tag, Subway, Gatorade, Papa Johns, Verizon, American Family Insurance, Bose, Reebok (and his shoes from Reebok), Yahoo, Ford, etc. Money isn't much of an issue for him, but I'm sure the respect is what he is looking for.

Here is a quick rundown of the teams that are close to or above the projected salary cap. I won't include the number they are above just to remove any bias I may have when making my final prediction. - JAX, NYJ, NE, IND, MIA, WFT, CIN, DEN, LAC, CLE, TB, CAR, DAL, BAL, ARI, SF, DET, SEA, HOU, NYG, BUF.

2. Supporting Cast - JJ is a competitor and you can tell by his press conferences in 2020 that losing really left a bitter taste in his mouth. The Texans had a pretty decent run with him and Deshaun Watson, but were only able to get to the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. I imagine competing for championships is what is meant by supporting cast. This narrows options down more than cap space does, in my opinion. 

3. Culture - It is no surprise this is on his list considering the shit show he is escaping from. Culture is important to people that have either experienced a really good culture or a really bad one, and that is true in all lines of work. Winning is normally considered a good culture, but there can be sore losers or poor coaching that goes on behind the scenes that make life miserable for people. A strong leader at the helm (QB + HC) is what JJ may be looking for.

4. Scheme - I believe this is bigger than a short paragraph. Let's do a deeper dive into what this means.

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I think the best way to navigate this will be to look at teams that will fit what JJ Watt has been successful at. The Texans ran a 3-4 base defense (3 defensive lineman, 4 LBs) in JJ Watt's tenure. That being said, JJ has played as a 4-3 DE when the Texans had 4 men on the DL. I think he will be able to have success in either a 3-4, a 4-3 or even a multiple defense as he is a true EDGE player that can be used in multiple ways. 

Here are some of his snaps by alignment from 2020, courtesy of PFF (PFF has exactly the data I was hoping for which would've given me production by alignment as well but alas paywall.):

Left EDGE: 702 snaps (EDGE means farthest player to the QB in terms of alignment)
Right EDGE: 134 snaps
Left end: 90 snaps (End means a LB is outside of him)
Right end: 32 snaps
Defensive/nose tackle: 28 snaps


When JJ lines up as an EDGE, he is one of the OLBs (normally he will still be on the DL unlike the picture). When JJ lines up as an end, he is one of the DEs.

What teams play a base 3-4? What teams play a base 4-3? What teams play both? Here is a list of what teams will most likely be running as their base defense in 2021. 

4-3 Teams: MIN, CIN, LV, SEA, BUF, PHI, NO, IND, CAR, KC, WFT, CLE, DAL, NYJ, HOU

3-4 Teams: PIT, BAL, NYG, TB, DEN, TEN, CHI, ARI, ATL, JAX, LAC

Multiple defenses Teams: NE, MIA, SF, GB?, DET?, LAR?

I am not ruling out any teams based on scheme because he has played in both... but... if JJ wants to rule out teams that play 4-3 (since that was one of his 4 important things), that dwindles the list down to about 17 teams or so.

Also, I just think this should be said. JJ has been a 90%+ snap taker since his rookie year in 2011. I am curious to see if that will change as he will be 32 years old when the next season gets underway. If I was to guess, I would expect he will be a rotational EDGE that plays about 50-60% of the snaps, depending on the team of course.

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With all of this information, here are my 3 best guesses for where JJ Watt will sign in FA in the coming days or weeks.

First, let's start with what JJ's wish list tells me. The list of all teams that fit a 3-4 or multiple defensive scheme and have available cap space right now to sign him would be the following teams. JAX, NE, MIA, DEN, LAC, BAL, ARI, SF, DET (got rid of Tampa because they won't have the money once they resign some of their guys). Of those teams, I will get rid of the teams with not a good supporting cast or a perceived bad culture. JAX, NE, MIA, DEN, LAC, BAL, ARI, SF, DET. Down to 5 teams. San Fran, Arizona and the Chargers all haven't been hit yet with my team needs column (check that out on Friday), but I did note that Baltimore and Miami have a need/want at EDGE. I'm going to go with Baltimore because they have surprised me in recent years with their talent acquisition on the defensive side. They have traded for high profile players like Marcus Peters, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell. They also made priority signings for guys like Earl Thomas and used high draft picks on Patrick Queen and Marlon Humphrey. They attract big named defensive players and they tend to play awfully well there. A DL with Campbell, Ngakoue, Watt and Co. will be terrifying. The Ravens don't have a ton of wiggle room in the cap, but they can make room for JJ if they want.

Next, my guess between the 4 teams that are making the most noise right now would be... between the Browns and Bills. I don't know this one is tough. A Pittsburgh trifecta of Watt Bros would be great for the family and media, but they have so many needs and are already deep in the hole with cap problems. I'm not sure if they can afford to sign Watt and get a starting LT, RB, C, etc. If Ben plays for nothing this year, and they get everyone back on 1 year deals... maybe. If money wasn't an issue, I think JJ would want to play with his brothers more than the other 3 teams. As for GB, I think it would be "cool" for JJ to play for GB, but a lot of players don't make their business decisions of where to play just because it would be "cool" to play for their childhood team. So between Buffalo and Cleveland (hope you packed your coat), I will go Buffalo. I think this team is at a point where they will be competing at a high level for a long time. They have an easier way to the playoffs (winning their division) than Cleveland does. One of their few upgradeable spots is at EDGE and they are ready to go again in 2021.

Finally, my doomsday scenario is that he forgoes caring about money or significant playing time to chase a ring in Tampa. This is my least favorite of all the options for multiple reasons. First, please stop helping Tom Brady. Second, this is exactly the reason I don't like the NBA. Grouping up to play with all your friends and making a super team. The salary cap is there to prevent things like this from happening but Mike Evans, Tom Brady, and someone else will probably take a pay cut to keep everyone around and add a few more friends. It's like you're making a trade in Madden with your friend while he is asleep and putting all his good players on your team. I think JJ would probably sign a 1-year deal if he went to Tampa so he could get a chance at a ring, and then leave when Tom does. Maybe he goes to play with his bros the year after. I don't know. Now I'm just upset. 

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Where do you think JJ Watt will sign in FA? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.

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