I know this is a football column, but I love March Madness. At the end of the day, this column is basically just anything I want to write about anyway... y'all don't give me hardly any feedback. 😠In all seriousness, as passionate as I am about football, I am equally as passionate about March Madness. It is an amazing time of year between Champ Week (where teams like Georgetown and Oregon St go on an amazing run to make the tournament field) and the Final Four (where a Cinderella is known to be spotted).
In this article, you will find tournament facts, tournament trends, data from various sources, and most of all you will find my terrible opinions on some of my favorite upsets and my pick for who will lift the trophy in Indy. It is going to be a long article so just take a look at the subheadings to check whatever you may find interesting.
If you think you have better picks than some of the ones I give away, I'd love for you to join a Bracket Challenge with me. It is just going to be a free thing so there is no harm if you aren't too familiar with the bracket. But doing one of these is always a good way to get into the game a little more and have some interaction. Note: You must have at least created a bracket to join a group, you don't need to submit it until the games start on Friday at noon eastern.
There are a few ways to do this. If you want to do it in a browser just sign in to your ESPN account and go to this link. Then scroll to the bottom and search 'KyleTheCommish' and there should be only one option.
If you are doing it inside the ESPN Tournament Challenge app (it's a very good app, highly recommend for filling out the bracket vs browser) there should be a Create/Join Group button on the bracket you want to enter into the group. Click that and there is a search button at the top right. Same thing search 'KyleTheCommish'.
If all of this is too confusing there is a way to invite you through email and also a way to invite you through a link. I'll send those out to anyone that requests one.
Good luck! If you have any questions, don't be afraid to ask.
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First Thoughts About the 2021 Bracket
Every year there are always "snubs" and over/under seeds and I normally don't like to get too much into that. Not everyone can win in the tournament but we have seen magical runs from teams that no one expected into the Final Four and even lifting up the trophy. So seeding normally doesn't matter too much.
However, this year I think there is an exception. The 2021 season featured 4 teams that I think were cut and dry above the rest. They weren't without warts (except Gonzaga) but they all were deserving and earned their #1 seeds. I know that all of the #1 seeds won't make it to the Final Four because it has only ever happened once since the 80s, but I have a really hard time picking them to lose before the Elite 8 (assuming health).
Therefore, the 8 and 9 seeds this year all got absolutely toasted by the committee. Anyone can win in the tourney, but for a team like Loyola Chicago who is ranked in the top 10 in the country by Kenpom to be an 8 seed... are you serious? Georgia Tech was a top 4 seed in the ACC tournament and then won the tournament... and they are a 9? St Bonaventure has all of the metrics for a Sweet 16 team, dominated their A-10 regular season, and won their tournament... and they are a 9? LSU and UNC are some of the hottest teams in the country and each of them are one of the best teams in a certain metric (UNC-offensive rebounding, LSU-offense) and are 8 seeds? 8 and 9 seeds always get a rough draw because the winner plays the supposed best teams in the 2nd game. I just think it is much better to be an 11 seed, this year specifically, than an 8 or 9.
Another interesting note... there were 2 teams that had to forfeit their remaining conference games due to a positive COVID test. Those were Kansas and Virginia. Both of which are in the top-seeded Gonzaga's bracket. It's also weird that Gonzaga has played each of the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their region. I feel like that could have been avoided.
I'll be upfront, I didn't watch the college basketball season before March. And I definitely didn't watch during football season. But I'm not sure how the Committee could possibly have slated West Virginia, who lost twice to Oklahoma St in the past 2 weeks, as a 3 seed in the same region that Oklahoma St is a 4 seed. West Virginia didn't win a conference tournament game. Oklahoma St won two. West Virginia lost 3 of its last 4 coming into March Madness. Oklahoma St has lost 3 games since February 8th.
Final thought when I look at this bracket. No one is safe... except for the 1 seeds. I look up and down at almost every single team and see weaknesses/flaws in their game. I've tried to watch 1 game from every single team in the tournament this year and have mostly accomplished that. Yet my thoughts always come back to how much better the 1 seeds are this year. Chalk is going to be a very popular pick this year in the Final Four.
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Tournament Facts/History
As a preface to this, all of these stats were provided by ESPN Stats & Info either in this article or from the Bracketology show. NONE OF THESE STATS ARE PREDICTIVE. However, I find some of these really important to help keep things in perspective when I am picking my bracket. If I am between two things, I generally will let history break the tie.
I will mark the ones I think about a lot with ***.
Does Seeding Matter? First and Second Round:
The 6vs11 seeded games are 14-14 since 2013.
The 7vs10 seeded games are 99-65 all-time in favor of the 7 seed.
At least one 12 seed has won at least one game in 30 of the last 35 years.
***In 7 of the past 10 tourneys (and 25 of the last 35) a 13 seed has upset a 4 seed.
The past three No. 3s to lose in the first round all came from the Big 12. The 2021 3 seeds from the Big 12: West Virginia, Kansas, Texas.
Only once since 2011 has a First Four team failed to win a Round of 64 game. The teams playing in the First Four this year are Wichita St vs Drake (winner vs USC) and Michigan St vs UCLA (winner vs BYU).
***Only once in the past 12 tournaments have the top four seeds in each region survived the first round, and just five times in the past 35 tourneys.
Does Seeding Matter? Sweet 16 & Elite 8:
***On average, 9.97 of the top 16 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 each year. In other words, 10 1-4 seeds advance to the Sweet 16.
8 out of the last 10 tourneys an 11 seed has made the Sweet 16.
***You can expect at least one team seeded 10th or worse to advance to the second week of play. It has happened in 33 of the 35 tournaments -- including 12 straight.
In the First Four era, No. 11 seeds have made 10 Sweet 16 appearances, the same number as all other double-digit seeds combined.
***Since 1985, only 5 times has EVERY 2 seed made the Sweet 16.
Since 1985, the top four seeds in a region have reached the Sweet 16 in only 19 of 140 regions. AKA once every 2 years.
Zero No. 6 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in three consecutive tournaments. With regard to the Elite Eight, only three 6-seeds have gotten there in the past 18 tournaments, and just one of them defeated a better seed in the Sweet 16 to get there.
Only three times have all Elite Eight participants been seeded fourth or better. And in four of the past six tournaments, we've had multiple teams seeded sixth or worse in the Elite Eight.
In each of the past 12 tournaments, we have only seen one or two No. 2 seeds reach the Elite Eight.
Does Seeding Matter? Final Four + Championship:
At least one No. 1 seed has reached the Final Four in eight straight tourneys and in 12 of the past 13. On the other hand, multiple 1-seeds have made the Final Four just three times in the past 10 years.
***There has been at least one Final Four participant seeded fifth or worse in each of the past 10 tournaments.
For just the second time, we have had three consecutive Final Fours involving at least one No. 3 seed.
The last Final Four appearance by a No. 4 seed came in 2013
***Ten of the past 13 champs have been 1 seeds.
Upsets:
The average number of first-round upsets is 6.1 over the last 35 years.
***On average, half of the upsets in a given year happen in the 1st round.
Random Tidbits:
The last time a team went undefeated in the regular season and won the national championship (Indiana) was 1976. 1976 was also the last year that both Duke and Kentucky missed the tournament in the same year. Both Duke and Kentucky missed the tournament in 2021. The entire tournament in 2021 will be played in the state of Indiana. Gonzaga went undefeated in the regular season.
There has been one ACC team reach the Final Four in 4 of the last 5 tourneys.
Alabama is the only team in this year's tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked. 32 teams have fit this profile before and none have made the Final Four.
Of the 45 previous teams with losing conference records to get at-large bids since 1985, more than half (23) won a first-round game. However, only six of the 23 won again to reach the Sweet 16. Of the past 20 times, only one won more than one game. Maryland, Georgetown and Michigan St fit that descriptor.
***No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in their conference tournament. Villanova, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Michigan St, Clemson, UCLA and Purdue all lost the 1st game in their conference tourneys.
In the modern tournament era, only two national champions came from a conference that received fewer than four bids. 2021 teams to keep an eye on for that... Gonzaga and Houston.
2 of the past 3 Champions had multiple Wooden Watch players on their team.
Since 2017, non-1 seeded teams with multiple Wooden Watch players didn't make it to the Elite 8. Villanova is the only team that fits this description in 2021. Illinois and Gonzaga are 1 seeds.
Teams with Wooden Watch players have won on average 2 tournament games from 2017-19.
Teams with Wooden Watch players in the tournament: Baylor, Illinois (2), Oklahoma St, Michigan, Iowa, Villanova (2), Ohio St, Gonzaga (3), USC
The last team to win both their regular-season conference title, their conference tournament, and then the NCAA Championship was Duke in 2010. Teams in 2021 that won their regular season and conference tournament titles are Gonzaga and Alabama.
The Regular Season Champion of the SEC has won 2 games on average the last 4 seasons. Alabama won the SEC regular-season title in 2021.
The winners of the SEC and Big East tournaments have won multiple games in the tourney in 3 straight years. Alabama won the 2021 SEC tournament and Georgetown won the 2021 Big East tournament.
The last 3 ACC Regular Season Champions that won their first game in the tournament made it to the Championship game. Virginia won the ACC regular-season title in 2021.
The winner of the PAC-12 tournament has made it to the Sweet 16 in 6 of the past 7 tourneys. Oregon St won the PAC-12 tournament in 2021.
A top-2 seed from the South region has won four of the past five tournaments. Baylor and Ohio St are the top 2 seeds from the South in 2021.
Each of the past four Champions was ranked as a top-2 team in the AP poll the previous year. Teams that fit that description in the tournament field are Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Michigan St, and Ohio St.
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Tournament Trends
As I mentioned, none of the stats in the Tournament Facts were predictive. But here are some trends that I have picked up in some of my research over the last few weeks. I will provide links to the original stories where I picked them up. There were many other stats I did not include from those articles.
In 2019, round 1 matchups were 20-12 for the team that had a better season FT%. In round 2 they were 13-3.
In 2018, round 2 matchups were 12-4 for the team with a better eFG %.
Over the last 10 tournaments, a Final Four team averages an assist on 21.1% of their possessions.
The last 5 champions averaged an assist on 23% of their possessions.
Over the past decade, 57.5% of Final Four teams were a top-10 team in the first AP poll of the new year.
Over the past decade, 75% of Final Four teams were a top-15 team in the first AP poll of the new year.
The past 11 non-UConn champions ranked inside the AP's top 15 in both the preseason poll and the first poll of the new year.
2021 Teams with an assist on 21.1% of their possessions: Gonzaga, Loyola, Baylor, Iowa, Colgate, Grand Canyon, Syracuse, Tennessee, Illinois, Creighton, BYU, St Bonaventure, Michigan, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Liberty
2021 Preseason Top 10: Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Virginia, Iowa, Kansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Duke, Kentucky
2021 First Poll of 2021: Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Creighton, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Michigan, Houston, Illinois, Missouri, West Virginia, Rutgers
***Teams that overlap AKA Final Four Possible Teams: Gonzaga (23.9%), Baylor (23.7%), Iowa (26.4%), Illinois, Villanova
No winner allowed opponents to average more than 20 FTA per game. That rules out FSU, UCONN, Missouri, Michigan St, Texas, Houston as possible Champions.
Nine of the past 10 champions had a player average at least 18 PPG or had a team assist-to-turnover ratio of at least 1.399.
11 of 14 Final Four teams with an Effective FG% of at least 56 percent made it to the title game (eight winners).
Three of the past four champions had the highest remaining eFG% among Final Four teams.
Nine of 15 Final Four teams with an eFG% of 50 percent or lower did not make the title game.
Of the 80 Final Four teams the past 20 seasons, 67 held a top-10 rating in the polls at one point during the season.
81.3 percent of Final Four teams had a victory of at least 35 points on their résumé heading into the tourney (95 percent of champions).
Top 10 ranked teams in 2020-21: Baylor, Gonzaga, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Alabama, Houston, Arkansas, Ohio St, West Va, Villanova, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas Tech, Missouri, Texas, Creighton, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan St, Tennessee, Wisconsin
Of the above teams, how many had a 35 point win? Baylor, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Houston, Arkansas, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas Tech, Texas, Creighton, Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin
Those that also have a 1.155 Assist/Turnover ratio? Texas Tech, Arkansas, Houston, Illinois, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Tennessee, Baylor, Gonzaga, Virginia, Creighton, Wisconsin, Iowa
Those that also have an eFG% over 50%? Creighton, Arkansas, Houston, Illinois, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Tennessee, Baylor, Gonzaga, Iowa, Virginia
***Those that also have a player averaging 18 points OR 1.399 Ass/Turn? Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa OR Creighton, Iowa, Gonzaga, Virginia
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Finding an Upset Special
This is where a lot of my own big brain research started. And by big brain I mean...
I went and took teams from 2017-19 in March Madness that won 2 games as 7 seeds or lower. 7 seeds aren't really underdogs in their first games but those 7-10 games can be really close. The teams I compiled were Oregon from 2019, Loyola-Chicago Kansas St Nevada and FSU from 2018, and South Carolina and Xavier from 2017. Oregon, Loyola, and South Carolina all won 4 games and made the Final Four. I wanted to try to find some statistic or trend they may all have in common. What I found was very inconclusive.
South Carolina making their run in 2017 broke any of the common points between these teams. They were absolutely awful offensively but had a top 3 defense, according to Kenpom. They also had poor defensive rebounding, awful 3 point shooting and a high number of average fouls. Franky, I don't know how they made their run.
If you throw the Gamecocks out, every other team had over a 52% effFG%. 24% of College Basketball Teams in the nation met or exceeded that metric. If you want to include South Carolina and make it the average of all the previous upset teams, it gets you up to 52.9% and only 27 teams in the tournament qualify for that. Of that, 15 are 7 seeds or worse. Let's go deeper.
Kansas St was the only one of the 7 teams to be lower than 40th in adjusted efficiency margin on Kenpom. In fact, the next lowest team came in at 31st in adjEM in their season. I want to narrow my search down to teams in the 25 to 40 range and if I use their scores, rather than ranks, the average comes out to around 17.5 adjEM (18 without Kansas St). There are 10 teams in that area that made the tournament that are 7 seeds or worse.
This one may confuse people but the reason I am including this metric is that my entire control group was in this range. This stat shows the number of points a team would be expected to outscore the average team over 100 possessions, without adjusting for the location of the game. So 17.5 would be the average that our control group would have outscored an average team. For comparison's sake (for later on), the highest 14 seed has an adjEM of only 10.22. If we are modelling after our control group, our upset special teams should outscore the highest 14 seed by 7 points given their 2021 body of work.
Keep in mind, Loyola-Chicago is an 8 seed but is ranked as the 9th best team by KenPom. Wisconsin is a 9 seed but is ranked as the 10th best team by KenPom. UCONN is a 7 seed but is ranked as the 16th best team by KenPom. They could be outliers.
Let's dive into a stat I think was pretty good among all of these teams, turnovers per game (meaning turnovers you give up). No team had more than 13 per game and if you take the average for all 7 teams it came out to 12.0 per game. Only 26% of schools made that mark in 2021. Unfortunately, 31 teams out of the 68 team tournament field meet that requirement so it doesn't really scream predictive. 21 of the 31 teams are a 7 seed or lower so that really doesn't narrow it down too deep either. But I will still keep it in my back pocket.
One of the best ways to win in March Madness is just to shoot your opponent out of the gym. If your team just can't stop hitting 3s, they will be tough to beat. So I need to take a look at 3 point FG% AND 3 point FG Attempt Rate. A team can shoot 3s great, but if they don't utilize it very much, what's the point of them being included.
25 teams in the tournament shoot better than the above-average 35.9% that our 7-team control group averaged. The better news is that only 13 of them are 7 seeds or worse.
Our control group didn't rely on the 3 ball as their only source of offensive power. They were about average with only a 37% 3 point attempt rate. Any 7 seeds or worse that fall too far under or too far above that rate I will throw out. The reason I want too far above thrown out as well is that if these teams have an off night shooting, they may not have other means of scoring consistently. I will mention the teams with very high 3 point att rates and high shooting percentages though. 32% and lower and 42% and higher catches 4 teams and throws them out. So we are down to 9 teams that are great at shooting 3 pointers but have other means of offense.
(Liberty and Oral Roberts both shoot the 3-ball on over 46% of their shots and they are also making those shots 38.8% of the time. The other 2 I caught were UCLA and Drake who are both First Four teams that don't shoot the 3 very much.)
One last thing that I haven't mentioned yet is defense. If shooting your opponent out of the gym is the best way to beat them, the 2nd best way might be to prevent the other team from shooting you out.
Our control group had a pretty stingy 32.1% on their opponents 3 point FG percentage. 24% of teams in the nation had an equal or better mark in 2021. Only 25 teams in the tournament field meet that percentage and 18 of them are 7 seeds or worse.
The Data/Teams
I included all teams seeded 7th or worse in my above measurements. However, I don't really expect a 16 or a 15 to win multiple games. If we get rid of those, here are all of the teams that were included in each yield. Team seed in parenthesis.
Effective FG%: Winthrop (12), LSU (8), Georgia Tech (9), Oregon (7), Drake (11), Loyola-Chicago (8), Liberty (12), Abilene Christian (14), UCSB (12), North Texas (13), Colgate (14).
KenPom Efficiency: Maryland (10), Georgia Tech (9), St Bonaventure (9), LSU (8), North Carolina (8), Rutgers (10), Oregon (7), Florida (7), Oklahoma (8), Utah St (11). Loyola (8), UCONN (7), and Wisconsin (9) all have better Kenpom ratings than these teams.
Turnovers: Loyola-Chicago (8), Eastern Washington (14), LSU (8), UCONN (7), Virginia Tech (10), Oregon (7), Oregon St (12), Syracuse (11), Georgia Tech (9), UCSB (12), Rutgers (10), St Bonaventure (9), UCLA (11), Maryland (10), Oklahoma (8), Colgate (14), Drake (11), Liberty (13), Wisconsin (9).
3 Pointers: Eastern Washington (14), Wisconsin (9), Drake (11), Georgetown (12), UCLA (11), North Texas (13), Oregon (7), Abilene Christian (14), Colgate (14). Liberty (13) didn't make it because they relied too heavily on the 3 but you could include them.
Opponent 3 Point%: Colgate (14), Abilene Christian (14), LSU (8), Florida (7), St Bonaventure (9), Drake (11), Morehead St (14), Wichita St (11), Syracuse (11), VCU (10), Michigan St (11), UCONN (7), Eastern Washington (14), Rutgers (10).
5 Points: None. (Drake is 53rd in KenPom at 14.64. Colgate is 84th in KenPom at 10.22.)
4 Points: Oregon (7k), LSU (8k), Drake (11), Colgate (14)
3 Points: St Bonaventure (9k), Georgia Tech (9k), Rutgers (10k), Abilene Christian (14), Eastern Washington (14)
2 Points: UCONN (7k), Florida (7k), Loyola-Chicago (2k), Oklahoma (8k), Wisconsin (9k), Maryland (10k), Syracuse (11), UCLA (11), Liberty (13), UCSB (12), North Texas (13)
1 Point: North Carolina (8), Virginia Tech (10), VCU (10), Michigan St (11), Wichita St (11), Utah St (11), Georgetown (12), Oregon St (12), Winthrop (12), Morehead St (14)
Teams seeded 7-14 with no points: Ohio (13), UNCG (13), Clemson (7), Missouri (8)
*k = In the Kenpom top 40 for adjEM
Summary & My Upset Specials
We had 5 key measurements to try to find an upset based on a control group that all won multiple games in each of their respective years. So keep in mind I am trying to find a Sweet 16 (or better) team from this bunch.
Just as a sidebar, if there is going to be a 15 beating a 2... Oral Roberts is a damn good team according to most of these metrics. They got 3 of the 5 possible metrics and they are one of the best teams in the nation at shooting the 3 and take a lot of them. If you want to get crazy in your bracket, pick Oral Roberts. I won't though because they are playing a potential Final Four team in Ohio St.
My "model (lol)" absolutely loves 14 seeded Colgate and why not? They are a top 10 team per the NCAA's NET ranking. Long explanation short, NET is a metric they use to evaluate teams based on efficiency, winning percentage, and an index that rewards teams for beating quality opponents based on the location of the game. Colgate hasn't played any good teams this season, but they absolutely dominated the Patriot League losing only 1 game. KenPom isn't too crazy about Colgate's efficiency ratings though. They are playing an Arkansas team that didn't look great in the SEC tournament struggling to get past Missouri and failing to get past LSU. Arkansas is also a very young team while Colgate has 4 veteran outside shooters. At the end of the day, I think Colgate could win this game but I don't envision they would be able to get past Texas Tech or Utah St as well.
Drake is one of the First Four teams and if you read in the above Tournament Facts at least one First Four team has gone on to win in the Ro64 every year but once in its existence. The problem I see for Drake is not with Wichita St (though they could give them trouble). It is with USC. The Trojans have a kid named Mobley who is 7 feet tall and going to be a top 3 NBA selection in the next draft. Drake has one player tall than 6'8 on the team. Drake also has struggled as of late, losing 2 of their last 3 games and barely squeaking out a win against 3rd-place Missouri St in their conference tourney. Part of the reason is they lost their star guard Roman Penn. For those reasons, I'm out on Drake.
Oregon in 2019 was one of the control group teams and here they are again as a 7 seed or later. This time Oregon isn't as hot coming in after losing in the PAC-12 semifinals to eventual tournament champ Oregon St. However, that isn't going to stop me from picking Oregon into the Sweet 16 and maybe even Elite 8. Yep, I have Oregon beating a VCU team that showed up in only one of my stats and then Iowa. Iowa is a really good team coming from a really good conference, but they are beatable. Oregon is lead by 3rd team All-American Chris Duarte but will be facing unanimous 1st team All-American Luka Garza. Oregon is already a terrible rebounding team so they will struggle in that regard against Garza. But Iowa really struggles in defensive efficiency and Oregon has 4 players that are double-digit scorers. Once Oregon got healthy in February, they went on a 6-game winning streak prior to losing their last game.
LSU is a really weird team to me. I watched their last 3 games and they didn't seem to control the game flow at all, yet they were wire to wire with Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss winning the latter two. Part of the reason they were never out of the game is that they have the 5th best offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas and Alabama both have top 15 defenses and LSU scored 78 and 79 points respectively. If they can do that in the tournament, there will be few teams who can keep up with them. Michigan is one of them though as they would meet in the Ro32 if both teams advance. However, it would be foolish of me to just gloss over their opponent in the first round, St Bonaventure. I LOVE THIS BONNIES TEAM. It's just not fair they got LSU and Michigan as their first 2 possible games. St Bonaventure got 3/5 metrics above but did not get 3 pointers or effective FG%, which is going to hurt them against LSU, but their defensive prowess may be able to trip up the Tigers. Either way, I am not confident enough in LSU to win 2 games against 2 teams I really like.
History says I need at least 1 double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16. I will give you two possibilities and they are both from the same region.
Syracuse is always a threat to burst someone's title hopes and make a run in March. They play a zone defense that always gives tournament teams trouble because a lot of teams aren't used to seeing it. However, this year they don't have the length that previous Jim Boeheim squads have featured to make that zone deadly. Instead, they have relied on offense from none other than Buddy Boeheim. Syracuse is playing Mountain West champs San Diego St who have won 11 straight, albeit against "weaker" competition. SDSU relied heavily on two players specifically and I have a feeling that Boeheim will focus on shutting at least one of them down. Additionally, SDSU used the 3 point shot as a large portion of their offense and Syracuse is one of the best teams defending the 3. After that win, they will face the winner of West Virginia-Morehead St. West Virginia is one of the coldest teams out there and you already know I think they are overseeded. The Mountaineers' defense is not what it used to be and they could be due for another early bounce out.
The final team that I could see making it to the 2nd weekend is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights were a top 15 ranked team this season before they hit a midseason schedule that featured Illinois (W), Purdue (W), Ohio St (L), Wisconsin (L), and Iowa (L). They normally did not beat teams that were "better" than them but if they get past a falling Clemson team (that did not get any points in my "model") then they will play Houston. Houston played 1 well-ranked team all year and beat them. However, their recent play against a stingy defense in Memphis has me worried. Memphis is ranked in the top 10 of Kenpom's defensive efficiency ratings. Rutgers defensive efficiency rank? 18th. Neither of these teams is going to run either out of the gym, but Rutgers has a pair of guards who lead them in scoring and a monster big man down low to get rebounds against one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. I'm not locking this into my bracket as of this writing, but I may come Thursday night.
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Finding a Final Four + Champion
As fun as upsets are, this is where the bread is won. If you have any chance of winning your bracket pool and beating your grandmother (I don't know how she keeps winning to be honest), you need to nail AT LEAST 2 of the Final 4 and you probably need to pick the Champion.
I looked at Final Four teams from the last 3 years, here is what I learned.
1. Your Final Four teams likely fit or are close to these KenPom parameters. 25.0+ adjEM
92< Defense efficiency
120> offense efficiency
2. Similar to my Upset Special Stats, Final Four teams from the last 3 years also shared stats together but they were much more elite than the Upset teams. They likely fit at least 2 of the following 4 parameters.
3. Every Champion in the last 10 years has been ranked in the top 40 of KenPom Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Let's break each of these down.
1. This one is very cut and dry as there are only 5 teams that are remotely close to these numbers. Gonzaga is the only team that cleanly fit the bill. Michigan is at 119.4 on offense and 88.6 on defense. Illinois is at 119.0 on offense and 88.0 on defense. Baylor is at 123.5 on offense and 93.8 on defense. Houston is at 118.9 on offense and 90.1 on defense. These numbers aren't averages from the previous 12 Final Four teams, rather they are guidelines for what most Final Four teams look like.
2. I wanted to be much more specific about what I noticed in a Final Four team rather than an Upset Special which can be an "any given day" type thing. Final Four teams have multiple elite qualities to them and normally aren't there because of luck. Here are the teams that fit these 4 parameters.
eFG% > 54%: FSU, Oregon, Drake, Iowa, BYU, Michigan, Illinois, Virginia, Loyola-Chicago, Creighton, Baylor, Gonzaga, North Texas, Eastern Washington, Ohio, Colgate, Liberty
Assist/Turnover ratio > 1.35: Syracuse, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Creighton, Gonzaga, Liberty, Wisconsin, Villanova, Iowa, UCSB, Michigan, Ohio, Colgate
3 Point Percent > 37%: Virginia, Illinois, FSU, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Baylor, BYU, San Diego St, Abilene Christian, Colgate, Liberty
Opponent Effective FG% < 47%: Kansas, San Diego St, UCONN, Tennesee, North Texas, Illinois, Texas, VCU, Alabama, St Bonaventure, USC, Michigan, Houston, Loyola-Chicago, BYU, Creighton, FSU, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Utah St
2 points: Oregon, Gonzaga, Loyola-Chicago, Ohio, San Diego St, North Texas, Abilene Christian
3 Points: Virginia, Iowa, Illinois, FSU, BYU, Liberty, Creighton, Baylor
4 Points: Michigan, MF'IN COLGATE
3. It is not at all surprising that the cream often rises to the top by the end of this fabulous tournament. Most of the time tournament champions have been teams that are in the top 20 in both offense and defense on KenPom, but if you go back 10 years every single one is in the top 40. You know your champion is in the below list... you also know the teams that won't be crowned in April.
Teams in the top 10 of both parameters: Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois
Teams in the top 20 of both parameters (besides the above teams): Houston
Teams in the top 30 of both: Colorado, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCONN, BYU
Teams in the top 40 of both: Alabama, Virginia, USC, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas, St Bonaventure, Creighton
Notable omissions: Baylor, Iowa, Villanova, Ohio St, Loyola-Chicago, FSU, Kansas
Takeaways & My Champion
If I know that a champion is going to be one of the teams in the top 40 in both metrics, should I just pick Final Four teams that have those parameters? Smart money says yes because your odds for points will be higher, but if you are going for the most possible points or a perfect bracket I would advise against it.
Look at the South region. The 1, 2 and 5 seed all are not in the top 40 on KenPom. Yet, (1) Baylor and (2) Ohio St are two of the best teams in the nation from the eye test and basically all other statistics except the KenPom defensive efficiency rating. Yet, (9) Wisconsin, (4) Purdue, (6) Texas Tech and (3) Arkansas are all in the top 40 from the South region.
I know Creighton grades out very well in these metrics from the control group of the previous 12 Final Four teams, but I am really hesitant. I watched 4 of their last 6 games; at (a healthy) Villanova and then UCONN and Georgetown in the Big East Tourney. Villanova was up 19 after the first half and then Nova lost their star player and Creighton only closed the gap by 7 points. The UCONN game was awful for both teams. Lots of missed shots and Creighton had 13 turnovers, but they squeaked out a 3 point win. The next day against Georgetown they got absolutely walloped by an inferior team. Now Georgetown played out of its mind to win the Big East tournament, but they didn't dismantle teams like they did Creighton. So the recent play isn't good and they also may be distracted by their coach who was suspended for a game because of racially insensitive comments that he made recently. Players on the team have talked to the media about how "they were hurting" from the mistake their coach made. To be honest with you, I don't know if I even have them winning against UCSB let alone going to the Final Four.
If you skipped over it, go back and read the Tournament Trends section. There are a couple of really cool stats that I think are predictive in there specifically about finding a Final Four team. Once you have, you may realize that between those trends and the 3 notes above, the same two teams popping up... Gonzaga and Illinois. Literally, every single trend, metric, factoid keeps bringing me back to those two names. I won't give you my champion... but I will say it is one of those two teams. "Oh wow spoiler alert, you picked a 1 seed as your champion. You sure got us."
PSYCH!!! MOTHERFUCKING COLGATE IS GONNA WIN IT ALL!!!!
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Just Good Advice
There are no obvious tells for what a good upset looks like. But one thing you can look at is the rebounding margin. Teams with more possessions have more chances to score. Math.
Another thing you can do to help your chances of winning your pool, mitigate risk by picking favorites that rely less on the 3 point shot. If a team is having an off-night and can't rely on getting easy buckets they may be more likely to feature a scoring slump.
Keep in mind any injuries that teams might be carrying into the postseason. Here are a few that could make an impact on their teams' chances of success.
Michigan is likely to be without their second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers for at least the first weekend of play. He is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his foot. Michigan was still able to beat Maryland and make a comeback on Ohio St in the Big Ten tournament without him, but his loss will be felt if he misses the Big Dance.
Villanova is not the same team that is deserving of that 5 seed they have with a brutal injury to their star player Collin Gillespie. He is out for the year.
I mentioned Drake had their star player Roman Penn injured, but they may be without another key contributor. ShanQuan Hemphill has been out since he had surgery in February on his foot, but it sounds like he might be back in time for the First Four game on Thursday against Wichita St.
Alabama has a very strong offense, but a day-to-day injury for a knee sprain to G Josh Primo still isn't something they want. Primo is the teams 5th leading scorer with the 5th most minutes per game.
Two players statuses are up in the air due to hits to the head in their most recent games. Kyle Young (Ohio St) and RJ Cole (UCONN) both have unknown statuses due to possible concussions. Mums the word out of Ohio St, but the coach of UCONN said he had a better chance to play Saturday rather than Friday. To me, that means he is in the concussion protocol. Cole is UConn's leading scorer while Kyle Young is the teams 5th leading scorer.
Wrapping up the injuries is John Fulkerson out of Tennessee. He had a surgical procedure on his face after an injury this past Friday in the SEC Tournament. Fulkerson is one of the teams best rebounders and plays the fourth-most minutes on the team.
Another oddity to this year's tourney is how they deal with COVID. As far as I know, yesterday was the deadline for a team to opt-out of the tourney if they had a COVID issue and could not field at least 5 players. So we are good there. If a team has even one COVID positive along the way, they are out of the tournament and the team they were playing advances.
There are 2 teams going into the tournament with big COVID concerns already that I mentioned in the open. Both Kansas and Virginia were kicked out of their postseason tournaments due to a positive COVID test. We know Kansas is in Indianapolis already but they will be without one of their starting forwards Jalen Wilson. He averaged 12 points a game and almost 9 rebounds. It looks like he is allowed to enter the bubble if he has quarantined elsewhere for a certain amount of time. Kansas was without 2 players in the Big 12 tournament due to COVID and one of them was another starting forward David McCormack. David and Tristan Enaruna also did not travel to Indy but they are expected to join their team at some point. Whether that is prior to their first game no one knows.
For Virginia, they had a player test positive who played in their last game on Thursday. He and any close contacts (which is supposedly some not all players) will be in quarantine until tomorrow, with the rest of the team quarantining away from them. The plan as of now is that Virginia is going to travel to Indy on Friday and play Ohio on Saturday. How many players and which players had COVID are undetermined at this time.
Tough Outs
One thing I never mentioned anywhere because I couldn't find a really good place but I wanted to talk anyway are some teams that I think will be tough-outs. Meaning they just play a certain style of basketball that keeps them in games regardless of how they are playing. Oklahoma St is one that has an NBA #1 pick, Cade Cunningham, on the team. But honestly, they are better as a defensive unit than offensively. Oklahoma St has a tough matchup against Liberty, but they would be a tough out in the Sweet 16 if they play Illinois. Ohio St is a relentless group that has a dog type mentality. They may not be the most talented group of players but they play tough, smart basketball that often leads to good chances for them. Georgia Tech is the true definition of scrappy. They are going to swipe and rip and claw for every rebound, loose ball, dribble and shot block. They do not have a deep team, but they have a PG that will bite your face off and a post player that will make you black and blue in the morning. LSU I already mentioned as a team I liked and I think they will be a tough team to shake off. Oregon I mentioned. USC is a team I like to make a lot of noise and possibly go to the Elite 8. They have the shooters to keep them in games and a 7 footer that can shoot, rebound, dunk, and block. The last team I want to mention here, Florida St is the deepest and longest team in this tournament. They play 9 players deep every game which is absolutely unheard of in college basketball except for Leonard Hamilton teams. They also feature 4 players over 6'9" out of the 9 most played players. They are athletic guys too, not sticks in the mud with slow feet. This kid Balsa Koprivicia makes no sense of how quick his feet move. They could make a Final Four run.
Finally, have fun with March Madness. A lot of people get caught up in the brackets and obviously, I do too. But I watch every single game I can because at any given moment there is a chance for something amazing to happen and there is always at least one moment per year that leaves you stunned. Root for those moments, not your bracket. Ok, you can root for both.
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Who is your Cinderella? Who do you think will cut down the nets? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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