Basically all of the big named free agents have signed to their new teams for the 2021 season. I wanted to write an article detailing my opinions on the fits of these players with their new teams for fantasy purposes. I didn't include any players that resigned with their old teams because we know about what they will look like. New situations can be really good things for some players and horrible for others... especially if they sign with the Jets.
It's my first fantasy article since I think January but this won't be a regular thing. I will do something similar for the draft and probably include players in the first 3 rounds or so for that. But I hope you enjoy this toe-tap back into one of my favorite past times.
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Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick to Washington - Fitzmagic is the only QB on this list that COULD be viable in a 1 QB league in my opinion. It isn't because he has great weapons around him, though I do like Terry Mclaurin and Curtis Samuel. It has to do with his gunslinger mentality. There will be games that he will throw 300 yards and 3 TDs and look great. And there will also be games with 175 yards and 2 INTs. Washington isn't going to change to a pass-first team just because they signed him so his ceiling won't be that of the top fantasy QBs and the floor is super low. But he could be a bye week replacement for 10-12 team leagues.
Andy Dalton to the Bears - The big thing for Andy will be who he is throwing to. As of today, Jimmy Graham and Allen Robinson are still on the roster. I expect that will change come training camp. Andy had some solid years in Cincy before he moved on to a backup role in Dallas last year. I don't think he was great when he got some PT last year but he has never been great. He will continue to be your average starter in 2QB leagues that you wish you could upgrade on.
Jameis Winston stays in New Orleans - I know I said I wouldn't talk about players staying with their team but this situation is a bit different considering he hardly played. I really like this situation for Jameis the football player (not as much for Jameis the fantasy player). He won't be asked to throw the ball around the yard 50 times a game. He will have Sean Payton guiding him each week with a winning game plan. And he has Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. They could use another weapon for him considering they lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook, but Adam Trautman should step up for Cook. The big thing for Jameis will be the unknown of Taysom Hill. For that reason, I have no idea where to rank him right now.
Tyrod Taylor to the Texans - There has never been more doubt that Deshaun Watson will continue to be the QB of the Texans than right now. Signing Tyrod, his trade request, and the legal matters are all clouding his future. He won't be playing in Houston in 2021 that much is for certain. Tyrod hasn't been a starter since his Buffalo days in 2017, where he lead his team to the playoffs. He was never a dynamite talent in terms of fantasy success even in that season. With his age, injury history, and the state of the team, I am hesitant to believe there will be anything worth monitoring from him, even in 2 QB leagues.
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Running Backs
Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to the Texans - Bringing in 2 RBs to compete with David Johnson? UGHHHH. I didn't mind DJs value with Ingram there, but adding Lindsay to the picture just makes this entire backfield untouchable. If anything, I actually think I like Lindsay the most. DJ has an injury history and uneven performances since his magical season in 2017. Ingram is way over the hump and was inactive for the last few games of the Ravens 2020 season. Lindsay, we know has a spark and motor but it wasn't enough to prevent DEN from bringing in Melvin Gordon. If any of these guys are selected in the top 100, that would be a mistake.
Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars - Hyde has continued to perform in each and every stop he has made in his weird career. He keeps taking 1-year deals and outperforming them. He actually returns to Jacksonville after spending half a season there in 2018 as a backup. I think he will feature a bit more prominently this time working in tandem with James Robinson. Part of Robinson's appeal in fantasy last season was that he played 98% of the snaps through 13 weeks. He ended up missing some time at the end of the season, but that number was not going to be sustainable for 2021. Adding Hyde to the mix confirms that and his connection to Urban Meyer from Ohio St isn't going unnoticed. I think he will actually end up leading this backfield by the end of the year. I would be willing to take a 9-11th round pick on him for sure.
Kenyan Drake to the Raiders - I said it once, I'll say it again. Jon Gruden hates Josh Jacobs. WHY? WHY WOULD YOU SIGN DRAKE TO A 2-YEAR DEAL??? The Raiders the past 2 years have used a 2nd and 3rd down rotation at RB. It doesn't go to the hot hand. It seems almost random because they would switch between Jacobs, Washington and Richard, even if Jacobs was running well. Drake is no doubt coming to add to that rotation since Washington is no longer with the team. Drake proved with MIA that he was a good pass-catcher out of the backfield and could make plays when he got into space. Though, he wasn't that in 2020 with AZ. This kills any value Drake had as Washington and Richard were not startable unless Jacobs got hurt.
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Tight Ends
Jared Cook to the Chargers - Jared Cook is one of the stiffest route runners I've seen in quite some time. He is going to be 34 years old and at 6'5", he doesn't do a lot of bending or separating anymore. I was really hoping that Donald Parham was going to be a thing at TE for the team and maybe he still will be, but Cook does eat into those plans. The good thing is that this is clearly a pass-first team and Herbert did look at Hunter Henry a decent amount with 60 catches on 93 targets and 4 TDs. Cook only had 60 targets last year and I don't expect he will have more than that in 2021. Consider him a TE2 and hope he finds the end zone.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to the Patriots - Speaking of Henry... the Patriots have had success with TEs in the past. Cam has had success with a top TE in the past. Adding Smith and Henry could be gold mines for fantasy with their athletic abilities. But I don't think we should be fooling ourselves too much here. For everyone expecting Hernandez and Gronk Part 2, which of them are a matchup nightmare like Gronk? Which of them has Brady throwing them the ball on a pass-first team? Smith has a lot of physical tools that are similar to Hernandez but I still wouldn't put him in that category. Don't get me wrong though, I don't hate these players and I think they will both provide great fantasy production. But in season-long, I think both of them will fall into that bucket of TEs every week where you are just hoping for a TD. I favor Henry more in this offense because I think he will play closer to Greg Olsen's role that Cam is familiar with from Carolina. Where you drafted each of these guys last year is about where I would put them this season. Henry Top 8, Jonnu Top 12.
Gerald Everett to the Seahawks - Sigh. I had a feeling that he would be going to Seattle but talk about killing the dude's fantasy potential. The Seahawks have never been able to get a TE going even when they have had nice spurts from guys like Jimmy Graham, Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister. Everett is the best athlete next to Jimmy Graham but Jimmy struggled in SEA as well. Russell and this offense just don't feature the position much in the passing game. Especially now with a huge target in DK Metcalf. They are a run-first team that likes to throw the ball deep when they do pass. Not good for Gerald who is going to be in that 15-20 range for TEs in most drafts.
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Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay to the Giants - This was the big holdup for this article coming out. He didn't sign until the weekend and I wanted to wait for him. Golladay had WR2 value in Detroit with Stafford. Now he gets a downgrade at QB with Daniel Jones, goes to a more crowded pass-catching room, and to a team that will likely try to establish the run with Saquon. I don't love this move for his fantasy prospects at all. Keeping that in mind, he is still one of those players that can turn any play into a long touchdown. I think his draft position will probably be somewhere in the 4th round (10-12 team league) and that is going to be too rich for me. I see him more as a WR3 with WR1 upside any given week. His lack of consistency will be his downfall.
Curtis Samuel to Washington - Funny enough, Curtis Samuel didn't really explode onto the scene until Ron Rivera was no longer the coach in Carolina. Samuel isn't the type of WR that Fitz has generally had success with in his previous stops. He is more of a throw it up QB and I fear that won't work well with Samuel, who is a precise route runner and all-around gadget player. Samuel hasn't had too many game-changing plays either which limits his overall upside and I don't foresee that changing in Washington. Samuel is probably a WR4 in 2021 and I won't be selecting him until after the top 100 are gone.
Corey Davis to the Jets - I don't love this deal for the Jets but I think that this is actually an upgrade in terms of his fantasy output, regardless of the QB. I am assuming that Jamison Crowder won't be apart of the team's plans come training camp; so that leaves Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims and any rookie they bring on as pass catchers for this offense. Davis has the most talent and big-play ability of the 3. I know talent doesn't always win the day in fantasy but it is something you can hope to fall back on. Being that he is a Jets WR with a likely rookie QB, he won't be too sought after on draft day but keep him in your plans as a sleeper. He could pay off dividends as a mid-round selection.
Emmanuel Sanders to the Bills - This is a huge get for the Bills as a team but not really a big move in terms of fantasy production. Sanders is 34 now and is bouncing around to play for Super Bowls. He will provide some leadership for the team and probably around 600-800 yards, which is about on par for him the last few seasons. The big thing about this signing is it will no doubt eat into Stefon Diggs' league-leading receptions from 2020. Josh Allen had a career year in 2020, if he has any sort of regression I bet it will affect the WR2 position (Sanders) the most. WR5 at best.
Will Fuller to the Dolphins - Awesome move for Miami! Terrible move for fantasy production! At least I assume right now. I know Tua is known for his rhythmic accuracy where he can read the defense quickly and deliver the ball. That may not be where Fuller shines the most, but he has been effective on short to intermediate throws in the past and especially in 2020. Tua isn't a bad deep-ball passer, the Dolphins didn't give him too many opportunities to throw those routes. I expect that will increase with Chan Gailey gone and the Dolphins allowing him to do more with a full year under his belt. Back to Fuller, I don't think the health issues are going to just magically disappear and he has a downgrade at QB. For a guy that was a WR2 when healthy, he will drop down to a WR3 weekly player but with the obvious caveat of a 60-yard touchdown happening any given week.
Nelson Agholor to the Patriots - Last of the AFCE WR additions. Agholor may have been overpaid but, in theory, I like what he is able to bring to this offense. Agholor really shined as a deep option for Derek Carr and I think that is what he will be asked to do with Cam Newton. Cam has never been an overly accurate passer but the year he won the MVP it felt like he was getting huge chunk yardage from Ted Ginn, Devin Funchess or Greg Olsen. Now Agholor isn't Ted Ginn, but he is in between him and Funchess in terms of speed. It feels like the Patriots want to be run-heavy and work their new tight ends though, so I will hold off on giving too much expectation. I'd draft him as a mid-round flier. I expect he will beat out Jakobi Meyers for the #1 job.
Marvin Jones to the Jaguars - Let's just say I don't expect much of anything out of Marvin Jones even though I think this is a decent spot for production. The Jags will have a rookie QB leading the way and no matter his draft pedigree, there is always a steep learning curve and rookie wall for these QBs. I also think that there will be a lack of intermediate throws for Trevor this year. A lot of shorter routes to get the ball out quickly to Laviska and the backs or deep passes to Chark and Jones when he is unsure of coverages underneath. There is room for Marvin to play well, but I don't expect he will be on fantasy radars.
Breshad Perriman to the Lions - I think the Lions are going to lean VERY heavily on the run this season for a few reasons. 1st, the new OC is Anthony Lynn, a former RBs coach. 2nd, their top 3 WRs from last season are all gone. 3rd, Matthew Stafford, a great passer, has been replaced by Jared Goff, a not great passer. All of this means that I am probably out on the Lions WRs this year, but there is something about Perriman's game that has intrigued me since his breakout in Tampa. He creates good separation and though he will never be a WR1 or even a WR2... there is something there. He won't be drafted in the top 100, especially if they bring in another rookie WR. But keep him in mind in the later rounds.
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Players to "keep an eye on" their situations during the Draft
Leveon Bell, Leonard Fournette and James Conner remain free agents. I wouldn't be at all surprised if at least one of these players remains unsigned going into training camp. It was a tough market for all players, but RBs are really in a bad spot considering how little they were being paid in the first place. The Bucs and Chiefs will probably look for a backup RB either in the draft or among the available FAs. While teams like Pittsburgh, Arizona, Miami, and the Jets need to address the position to get a starter which will likely be on Days 1 and 2 of the draft. After the draft is when I expect some movement on these 3 free agents. Though Fournette is the one I am most confident in to have any fantasy success in 2021.
For the WRs, TY Hilton and Antonio Brown remain free agents. TY has been mostly a ghost (get it? cause that's his nickname) the past 2 seasons because of injuries and uneven QB play since Luck suddenly retired. If he returned to Indy with Wentz, I think he would return to having some flex appeal but his days of WR2 or better numbers are probably over. Meanwhile, AB showed some real flashes in 2020 once he got back into football shape. Depending on his landing spot, I think that he could have big numbers again. Nothing like the back to back seasons in Pittsburgh where he was the #1 fantasy WR. But he clearly still has the feet and hands to be able to pull in over 1k yards and 70+ catches. I am all over him as a middle-round selection.
I mentioned Arizona as a team being in the RB market in the draft but AZ has said they believe in Chase Edmonds and he could be in line for a lead back role. Keep that in mind during the NFL Draft. Chase has mainly been used as a change of pace back for them coming in for special situations and 3rd downs.
Irv Smith Jr in Minnesota is someone else I am keeping tabs on. He is finally in the clear to be the #1 TE for the team after his first-round selection in 2019. He is a pass-catcher and less of a blocker, so I will be interested to see if Minnesota selects an all-around TE in this draft to replace Kyle Rudolph. If they either get a blocking TE or stay the course with their current guys, Irv could be set for a big year. Although, the Vikings normally haven't used much more than Cook, Thielen and either Diggs/Jefferson as far as big contributors for their offense. The TEs in their system just seem to fall by the wayside.
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Which of these players is due for a big breakout with their new team? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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