Best Bets: Super Bowl 55 Special! - 2/3/21

So... I heard you like money. 😏 For this week's Wednesday article, I am going to divert from Fantasy content to have a Super Bowl Bets Special! Super Bowl and March Madness are the two most fun events to place your money where your mouth is or just have something to root for. It makes it a little more interesting to have some skin in the game. Today, I want to go over a few different ways you can do so ranging from very casual to some crazy parlays.

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Best Bets - Super Bowl Edition

First, let's start with the most casual bet that you can do just to be a part of the action. Super Bowl Squares.

Super Bowl squares are what a lot of people will play at Super Bowl parties (which I hope there will be none of those this year.. js). Squares are where you will have a 10x10 grid. Running along the top row (home team) and down the left column (away team), you will have the numbers 0-9. There can be up to 4 different winners in squares. A winner will be decided at the end of each quarter. The winner is chosen is by whoever has the score matching with their square. So say you had the 2 square on the row and 7 square on the column. You would need the home team to have a score ending with a 2 and the away team have a score ending with a 7 at the end of any quarter. It could be 2-7 or 12-17, any combination. 

A lot of people that do squares will do it for fun, so getting a square would cost nothing. But some people will do pools that require a small fee like $5 per square and you can choose how many squares you would like. Unfortunately, the fairest way to do Super Bowl squares is once there are 100 squares paid/taken, you randomize the numbers 0-9 for each team. Being able to choose where you would like to place your square would be unfair as numbers like 0, 7 and 3 would all go first and you would have slightly better odds to win.

If you want to play and are looking for a board you can print out, you can click on this link.

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Of course, another very popular and simple way to bet on the game is to just choose a winner with some friends or with Vegas. Those odds in Vegas are KC -170 or TB +145. If you bet KC to win, you would need to bet $170 to win $100. If you bet TB to win, you would bet $100 to win $145. 

If you wanted to take it up a notch, the Vegas odds for Spread and Over/Under are noted below. Odds were from Pointsbet at 10:00pm Tuesday night. I assume most of you know what the Spread or Over/Under is but I will explain just in case. 

(1) Chiefs @ (5) Bucs +3 O/U 56

The spread for the Super Bowl is +3. That means that Vegas is giving the Bucs 3 points on top of whatever they score in the game. So if the Bucs lose the game 26-24, people who bet on the Bucs +3 will win. If the Bucs win outright, those bettors still win. The only way Bucs +3 loses is if the Chiefs win by 4 or more points. It is also important to note that if the Chiefs win the game by 3 points, then the spread will be a tie/push and bettors would be refunded their money back.

Over/Under is very simply what they think the total score added up will be. Over or under 56. Again, a lot of times you will see these numbers end with .5 to prevent ties, but this book has left it as a whole number to protect themselves. 

Here are my picks for the game for those two bets.

Bucs/Chiefs UNDER 56: The over is wayyyy too sexy for my tastes. Give me some vanilla without any toppings, please. The Chiefs were able to stop the Bills in the RZ in their last game. The Bucs have a good enough defense to prevent points from happening and the wishy-washy nature of the Chiefs offense helps too. I think there is going to be scoring in bunches when there is scoring, and stout defense when there is not. I also think both of these teams can put up 35 points each... so who knows. Now let me finish my ice cream.

Bucs +3: I'm hoping the Chiefs win by 300 points, to be honest. But I can't seem to make up my mind at who I think tactically wins this game. The Bucs have the better overall roster and are fairly healthy coming into this game. The Chiefs have the better QB and offense. Bucs have the better defense and OL. Chiefs have better coaching and special teams. I tend to value the importance of coaching and special teams as one of the underrated things that will make a difference in a game. But it's also Tom Brady. I've watched him for far too long to count him out of anything. So I'll take the points and pray to god the Chiefs win by 1 or 2. Also, I want to clear up that I do not dislike the Bucs. I love that franchise and it will always hold a special place in my heart. But I do hate Tom Brady more than just about anything.

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Prop Bets

This is the most fun part of Super Bowl betting, in my opinion. Prop bets are super fun because they range from completely random things to specific player performances. Some of the most popular props include Head-Tails on the coin toss, how long the National Anthem will last, what color Gatorade is poured on the winning head coach, which QB is shown first during the National Anthem. There are so many and I will list a bunch of this year's props out below.
  • Gatorade color dumped on winning coach: Orange +100, Red +175, Clear/Water +175, Yellow/Green +200, Blue +650, Purple +650. The Chiefs won the SB last year and dumped Orange on Andy Reid. This isn't a bet I would touch though.
  • The number of references to Bill Belichick on the broadcast. O/U 1.5.  I don't have odds for this one because I can't remember where I saw it, but I'm hammering the over. My only fear is that they would talk about it in the open and not count that as part of the broadcast.
  • Length of National Anthem by Eric Church: O/U 120.5 seconds. OVER -140, UNDER +100. Normally this is information that is leaked by someone listening to the soundcheck a day or two before the game. Eric Church has never sung the National Anthem in front of an audience before so we can't base this off a previous performance like we did for Demi Lovato last year.
  • First Song to be performed by The Weeknd for the Halftime Show: Blinding Lights +400, Heartless +600, In Your Eyes +700, Starboy +750, Can't Feel My Face +900, Pray For Me +1200, FIELD (any song not listed) +300. So the big commercial for the Halftime Show has Blinding Lights being sung by a bunch of people. For that reason, I wouldn't hate throwing a little bit on that but this is another bet I normally don't touch.
  • Heads or Tails on the coin toss. Heads -103 or Tails -103. Maybe you like this bet, maybe you don't. Not for me.
For me, those bets are a bit too random for my taste, but if you are someone that doesn't know anything about football and just wants to gamble, there is something for you. I really like the football-centric props. Stuff like O/U yards for specific players or will a team score in the final 2 min of a half. Below are my favorite football prop bets for this year's game. Odds are via Caesars Sportsbook on Monday. 
  • Total Players to Attempt a Pass: O/U 2.5 OVER +130. You're gonna give Andy Reid and Bruce Arians 2 full weeks to game plan and you're telling me not one player besides Mahomes or Brady is going to throw a pass? FREE MONEY.
  • Shortest TD of the Game: O/U 1.5. Over +150. The Brady QB sneak has a chance to wreck this bet. But if no team ever gets down to the 1-yard line, how can they score a 1-yard touchdown?
  • 2 Point Conversion Attempted? YES +130. No risk it no biscuit vs the Chiefs who put up an absurd amount of TDs. This one feels like a slam dunk to me, especially with the mindset that both teams will be chasing points.
  • Tyreek Hill receiving yards: O/U 90.5 OVER -110 AND Tyreek Hill longest catch: O/U 27.5 OVER -110. I mentioned in my preview article that Hill torched the Bucs for 200 yards in the 1st quarter last time they met. I do think the Bucs will try to focus stopping him, but he literally just isn't possible to cover in man. If they play zone, he will find the soft spot. Hill has been huge in the playoffs so far and I expect another 100-yard day on Sunday.
  • Mike Evans receiving yards: O/U 65.5 OVER -120 AND Mike Evans yards on 1st catch: O/U 10.5 OVER -125 (Odds via Bovada). If Tommy is going to win this game, the Bucs will need to keep Mahomes off the field which means controlling possession and getting 1st downs. However, when you actually line up against KC you realize that you just need to score as often as possible because the Chiefs will score on 4 straight possessions like it is nothing. Mike gives Brady the best chance down the field. Hammering both of these.
  • Will there be a score in the Final 2 Min of the 1st Half? NO +330. I placed this bet last year and hit with similar odds. I'm back again for more. Yes, both of these teams have great firepower, but these odds are too good to pass up. Throw $50 on it and you only have to stress for 2 min.
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Parlays

Parlay bets are more than one bet compounded into one total bet. You need every portion of the bet to be correct for you to win the bet. Every week of the playoffs I gave a Parlay of the Week with +300 odds (If I gambled $100, I would win $300 or more if I got the bet right.). Admittedly, I have not even been close to hitting them... UNTIL... no.. the odds are not in my favor to hit this week either. BUT I'M GONNA GIVE MY PARLAY ANYWAY AND YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING TO STO-....

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If anyone lives in a state where it is legal to bet and wouldn't mind placing one for me, let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter. Please. I'm desperate. 



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Did I fool you? Oh, you can see that you can continue to scroll? Oh, yea... technology. Anyway here are my Parlays of the Week. As a note, Sportsbooks only allow certain prop bets to be parlayed but the prop bets you will see here are technically allowed.
  • 2nd Quarter Winner? Bucs +135 AND 3rd Quarter Winner? Chiefs -140. $100 pays $302. No rhyme or reason to this bet. Just a gut feeling that the Bucs will be winning at halftime and the Chiefs will respond in the 3rd quarter. 
  • Any Score Final 2 Min of 1st Half? NO +330 AND Any Score First 6.5 Min of Game? NO +130 AND Any Score Final 3.5 Min of Game? YES -170. $100 pays $1470. Oh yea I'm bringing out all the stops. This is my craziest idea for the game. I already mentioned how I feel about the final 2 min of 1st half bet above. But I also really like these other 2 bets. I feel like Super Bowls tend to start out a little slow because no one wants to make a mistake. And then whichever team is losing in the final 3.5 min of the game, I don't imagine won't be able to put up points. We also saw the Chiefs score a touchdown with under 2 min to go in the Super Bowl last year when they were already up. Anything is possible in this game.

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