The Commish Fantasy Segment: Wayyyy-too-early 2021 Fantasy Ranks - 1/13/21

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Last week on the fantasy segment, we talked about how to make your fantasy life better in 2021. Well, let's get another jump on that with my Wayyyy too early 2021 Ranks. 

Some of you may know the last 2 years I have made my own custom Preseason Fantasy Football ranks. Assuming I am still writing by the time we get to August, I will be sure to post a Top 200 HALF PPR ranks for you all to laugh at. I don't base my rankings off of anyone's ideas. I look at outside statistics, trends, and data to form my opinions and eventually ranks.

HOWEVER, it is January. So for this article's purpose, I will be giving my Overall Top 50 for HALF PPR (better than Full PPR IMO) and then a top 10 at QB, TE, K and D/ST. This article won't be as long because it will mainly be about the ranks, so I would love to hear feedback from you cool cats and kittens. A few players in these ranks have the opportunity to move teams this offseason and I will note those players. Enough dawdling, here are my ranks.

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Top 50 Players:

  1. Christian McCaffrey, RB Carolina
  2. Derrick Henry, RB Tennessee
  3. Dalvin Cook, RB Minnesota

    I think we should have a pretty consensus top 3 players going off the board. Henry makes up for his lack of receptions with 200-yard games. CMC back at 100% though, should still be the top dog.

  4. Saquon Barkley, RB NY Giants
  5. Davante Adams, WR Green Bay
  6. Nick Chubb, RB Cleveland
  7. Alvin Kamara, RB New Orleans (QB?)
  8. Johnathan Taylor, RB Indianapolis

    Saquon is the last of the RB1 with no shared backfield. Adams has proven that Rodgers needs no other playmakers drafted in the 1st round of the real NFL Draft. If he stays healthy for all of 2021, he will break several records. I'm lower on Kamara then others I feel like. With Brees likely done, it all depends on the QB situation for NO. If Hill is the starter Kamara will drop into the teens.

  9. Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City
  10. Stefon Diggs, WR Buffalo
  11. Austin Ekeler, RB LA Chargers
  12. D'Andre Swift, RB Detroit
  13. Aaron Jones, RB Green Bay (UFA)
  14. Tyreek Hill, WR Kansas City
  15. Ezekiel Elliot, RB Dallas (Dak?)

    A TE in my Top 10 you better believe it. Kelce caught 79 first downs in 2020 (1st in receiving). Only Henry and Cook had more for non-QBs. He caught 105 passes (5th in the NFL).  I will probably move Diggs lower as we get closer to the season, but he has just been dynamite. Allen knows where he is at all times. Swift will be the RB1 without AP stealing touches and touchdowns. Aaron Jones is probably a top 10 player if he stays in GB, but I don't think GB can afford him or will want to pay him. Zeke squeaks into the top 15 because Dallas will probably be back to an explosive offense with a healthy Dak. I assume that means he will get a plethora of touchdowns if that happens.

  16. DK Metcalf, WR Seattle
  17. Deandre Hopkins, WR Arizona
  18. Calvin Ridley, WR Atlanta (Ryan and Julio?)
  19. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Kansas City
  20. Miles Sanders, RB Philadelphia
  21. Josh Jacobs, RB Las Vegas 
  22. Cam Akers, RB LA Rams

    If Ryan stays and Julio is traded, Ridley will be shooting up my board. For now, I will keep the beasts of DK and Nuk ahead of him. These RBs all have top 5 capabilities but are hamstrung by youth, coach, or QB issues. Akers reminds me of Gurley 2.0 and I could also see him in my top 15 by August. CEH being with Andy Reid for another year gives me all the goosebumps though.

  23. Keenan Allen, WR LA Chargers
  24. Mike Evans, WR Tampa Bay
  25. James Robinson, RB Jacksonville
  26. Allen Robinson, WR Chicago (UFA)
  27. JK Dobbins, RB Baltimore
  28. Justin Jefferson, WR Minnesota
  29. Adam Thielen, WR Minnesota
  30. AJ Brown, WR Tennessee
  31. Michael Thomas, WR New Orleans (QB?)

    The RB wall that I don't really want to go past ends with Dobbins. I want at least 1 RB out of the 18 I have posted already. As I say that, I take a look at the WRs in this cluster and you cannot go wrong with any of these guys. The position is deeper than ever and there is absolutely no reason to go zero-RB in this climate. Evans is higher than he might be come August because Godwin is a UFA. In the same vein, if ARob goes to a good situation, he may be in my top 25. Thielen is probably going to be lower on others ranks, but I don't see why. Thielen had 23 RZ targets in 2020, fourth most among all players. Thomas without Brees is going to be a big question mark. He thrives in the short to intermediate role and that is where Brees threw mostly these last few years.

  32. Antonio Gibson, RB Washington
  33. George Kittle, TE San Francisco
  34. Darren Waller, TE Las Vegas
  35. Chris Godwin, WR Tampa Bay (UFA)
  36. Julio Jones, WR Atlanta (trade?)
  37. Terry McLaurin, WR Washington (QB?)
  38. Joe Mixon, RB Cincinatti 
  39. Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City
  40. Josh Allen, QB Buffalo
  41. David Montgomery, RB Chicago

    I reserve the right to change all my picks, but if you could tell me right now that Kittle plays 2021 fully healthy, he would my right alongside Kelce. This group of WRs all have question marks and that is why they are here. It just feels wrong that Julio is down here but his injury history and potential trade are worrying. The QBs make an appearance and I had serious thoughts about putting Josh Allen ahead of Mahomes because he is the goal line runner. But Mahomes' worst possible outcome is what? 5th among QBs? Meanwhile, Allen could lose his OC and everything go to shit again.

  42. Kenny Golladay, WR Detroit (UFA)
  43. Ronald Jones, RB Tampa Bay
  44. Robert Woods, WR LA Rams
  45. Amari Cooper, WR Dallas
  46. Tyler Lockett, WR Seattle
  47. Tee Higgins, WR Cincinatti
  48. Brandin Aiyuk, WR San Francisco
  49. Kareem Hunt, RB Cleveland
  50. Najee Harris, RB Whoever Drafts Him Because He Is That Good

    Golladay is going to be one of the most highly sought after FAs. But ultimately I expect he will be franchise tagged. If that is the case, I would move him up to the 30s. Ronald Jones might be the RB1 for a Tom Brady-led team. That is normally great news for your statistics. I have 2 2020 rookie WRs in Higgins and Aiyuk on this list. Both were incredibly impressive this season and I expect another jump this upcoming season based on what these teams want to do. Finally, Najee Harris is going to be in my top 50 in August. I could see him landing in Pittsburgh, Miami, Arizona, the Jets, or Buffalo. He would be the RB1 for his team by the end of camp.
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Best Bets

Everyone's favorite segment is back for divisional round playoff action. At least it's my favorite because the only thing I can legally bet on right now is Mario Kart. Odds are via PointsBet (at 2pm on Wed) where, if betting was legal in Florida, I would be placing all my bets. Highly recommend. 

(6) Rams @ (1) Packers -6.5 O/U 45.5
(5) Ravens @ (2) Bills -2.5 O/U 50
(6) Browns @ (1) Chiefs -10 O/U 57
(5) Bucs @ (2) Saints -3 O/U 52

Rams +6.5: Rams play a style of football that GB should not want to see. Similar to SF last year, this team is built from a physical brand and it starts on defense. Rodgers is one of the best in the league year in and year out. Aaron Donald IS THE BEST in the league year in and year out on defense. Ramsey is likely to shadow Adams, but honestly, Troy Hill and the other DBs have been completely competent. If Akers can run the ball on this swiss cheese of a run defense... we might have an upset in Titletown.

Bucs/Saints OVER 52: The Bucs are pissed off. They know they got embarrassed the last time the Saints played them all over national TV. A lot of people think they can't hang with this Saints offense. I think the opposite. I think they can't hang with this Saints Defense. HOWEVER, Brady has now had 2 tries to best them and will have all the film for a full season. He will be ready and should be able to put up some points. If not? The Bucs defense hasn't looked good of late and have frankly never been able to stop Alvin Kamara.

Browns +10: The Chiefs have been one of those teams that don't put a game together for all 4 quarters. It normally leads their opponent into catching up or controlling the tempo for a portion of the game. If the Browns are able to move the ball on the ground consistently, I think this will be a close game. But there is no way I have KC losing this game.

Parlay of the Week: I am going to try to set rules for myself that I pick a +300 parlay each week there are games. 

Rams ML +240 AND Chiefs ML -510
$100 pays $306

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Top 10 QBs:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City
  2. Josh Allen, QB Buffalo
  3. Kyler Murray, QB Arizona
  4. Russell Wilson, QB Seattle
  5. Deshaun Watson, QB Houston
  6. Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore
  7. Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay
  8. Dak Prescott, QB Dallas
  9. Joe Burrow, QB Cincinatti
  10. Justin Herbert, QB LA Chargers
Kyler was largely "disappointing" because we all expected AZ to make the playoffs. But besides that 4 game stretch (Week 11-14, the run-up to playoffs I know), he was great for his fantasy owners and winning you games. Rodgers is down at #7... he just isn't as mobile as any of the guys ahead of him, besides Mahomes. I also am confident that Rodgers won't throw 48 TDs again. I have Burrow ahead of Herbert simply because I think Cincy will need to throw more than LA this year. Cincys defense is all kinds of horrid outside of Jessie Bates. LA has some pieces on D, but they got injured or were inconsistent. Chargers gonna be a sneaky good team in 2021.
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Top 10 TEs:

  1. Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City
  2. George Kittle, TE San Francisco
  3. Darren Waller, TE Las Vegas
  4. TJ Hockenson, TE Detroit
  5. Dallas Goedert, TE Philadelphia
  6. Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore
  7. Mike Geisicki, TE Miami
  8. Robert Tonyan, TE Green Bay
  9. Noah Fant, TE Denver
  10. Hunter Henry, TE LA Chargers (UFA)
Oh yea, you read that right. Hockenson and Goedert > Andrews. Andrews still has crazy reliability from Lamar in the red area, but I owned him in 2020 and it never felt consistent. Hockenson and Goedert (assuming Wentz starts) both were very reliable. when on the field, for getting targets. After Andrews, it get's real rough. Watching every Tua snap this year, he seemed to covet Mike when he needed an answer. I like the talents of Fant and Henry, but they are too limited for me. If you can, pay up for one of the top 3 guys.

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Top 10 Kickers and D/ST

  1. Get rid of these positions.
  2. They are worthless.
  3. No one likes drafting them.
  4. No one likes picking them up on waivers.
  5. Stop doing it.
  6. Houston Oilers D, Deshaun Watsons new team
  7. Ndamukong Suh, 3rd String K Tampa Bay
  8. Roberto Aguayo, Best NFL Kicker Ever
  9. Baltimore Colts D, Good at moving undetected
  10. Younghoe Koo, Actual Kicker

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If you were triggered that I put the letters QB/TE after the Top 10 QB/TE categories, let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.

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