Let's Talk About... Tanking - 1/15/21
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Shorter intro today because I feel like I have a lot to say. But before we get into it... I'd just like to say most of this article was written last week prior to Doug being fired. It all holds up after the fact, but important to note. Let's Talk About Tanking in Football.
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The obvious goal of tanking is to lose. For our purposes, the two questions that need to be answered are...
What is the benefit? Because the NFL's draft order is determined by inverse standings, or worst record gets the best pick, you could lose games to gain a better standing in the draft. A better standing in the draft means you should get better players, in theory.
Who has this goal of losing?: This is where some confusion comes in. The media always points to a team in the preseason or early when they aren't playing well and will say that they are clearly not trying to win or whatever. That is a load of horse shit. Front offices tank. Players don't. Coaches don't shouldn't.
Players have ZERO incentive to lose games. Management can try to hold back coaching staffs with lack of player talent all they want. But those coaches and those players are fighting for a paycheck and pride every time they go out on the field. That is why you see teams like the Jets win games in Week 15 and 16, and teams like the Dolphins win in Week 17 last year when it was of "no benefit" for them to do so.
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The reason people are buzzing around the NFL right now is not because of the Divisional Round of the Playoffs that start tomorrow. Instead, if anyone in the NFC East even blows their nose the entire NFL Media group drops everything to cover it.
On a complete sidebar, I am still pissed off that the NFL decided a matchup that wasn't a WIN AND GET IN for both teams, was worthy of game 256, in front of the entire nation on NBC. I truly do not care if Goff didn't play. I don't care that Kyler didn't play the entire game. The truly horrific NFC East, with a combined 10 wins through 30 games played, was put in front of the entire country AGAIN. And if we skip ahead to the results of that game, I am not at all wrong to have this opinion. (If this is confusing, the NFL decided that Washington vs Philly when only Washington could make the playoffs was a better game for the nation than LA vs Arizona where if either team won, they would make the playoffs.)
On top of this game being a bunch of terrible football, it also brought us the top news story of the week. Tanking in the NFL is alive and well folks. See, you pointed your fingers at the Dolphins in 2019 and the Jets in 2020. But when the cards all were laid out on the table, both of those teams won games when they didn't need to. The Eagles? They needed to see what they had in Nate Sudfeld. Their 3rd string QB. Who has been in their building for 4 years now. Who was behind Wentz, Foles, and 2nd round rookie QB Jalen Hurts.
Here is the thing. This decision probably came down from above Doug Pederson (the Head Coach). BUT IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE! This decision does two things: creates distrust in the locker room and gets you a slightly better draft pick. Is the risk of Hurts POSSIBLY winning the game worth that? Also, screw the Giants and their fanbase that are whining because they didn't make the playoffs. You got 6 wins and didn't deserve it anyway, sit down children.
1st Drive: Starting at PHI 11 yard line. Down 3 points. 12+ min left.
1st & 10: Incomplete short pass.
2nd & 10: 5 yard run with RB.
3rd & 5: INTERCEPTION on a 30 yard pass.
2nd Drive: Starting at PHI 41 yard line because WSH just turned the ball over. Down 3 points. 10 min left.
1st & 10: Sudfeld short pass for 5 yards to Ertz.
2nd & 5: Bad snap on Jason Kelce. FUMBLE. Not Sudelds fault though.
3rd Drive: Starting at PHI 25 yard line. Down 6 points. 7+ min left.
1st & 10: 4 yard run with RB.
2nd & 6: Incomplete deep pass.
3rd & 6: Short pass completed for 10 yards.
1st & 10 at PHI 39: Sack -13 yards.
2nd & 23: Short pass completed for 5 yards.
3rd & 18: Sacked -3 yards. PUNT.
4th Drive: Starting at PHI 8 yard line. Down 6 points. 1 min left.
1st & 10: Short pass completed for 6 yards.
2nd & 4: Incomplete deep pass.
3rd & 4: Incomplete short pass.
4th & 4: Sudfeld scrambles for 12 yards.
1st & 10 at PHI 26: Incomplete deep pass.
2nd & 10: Incomplete short pass.
3rd & 10: Complete short pass for 6 yards. END OF GAME.
Final Stats: 5/12 32 PaYards, 1 INT, 2 Sacks, 12 RuYards
Listen... this isn't to punish Nate Sudfeld. Hurts wasn't exactly lighting it up before he was benched. But he surely has bigger play potential. On top of all that, don't you want to give the kid who only got 4 starts this year every possible snap and opportunity to see what you have in him? The possible future of your franchise??? This decision creates a culture problem that Doug won't be able to fix. Every fan knew the Eagles had a better chance of winning with Hurts as QB in that game. But more importantly, every Eagles player knew it too. My guess? Doug and Howie Roseman (the GM) are fired in 2021 because of another "underperforming" year. All of this so you pick 6th instead of 9th in the draft.
UPDATE: I had this article set to come out last Friday and was written before Doug was fired. The owner mentioned in his press conference about the firing that Doug didn't deserve to be fired based on performance. I can only imagine that the owner realized, after the fact, what kind of issue this would cause within his own team. Not firing Howie alongside Doug is an issue, though. You are going to leave Howie to try to fix the mess he has already created? Just bring in a new GM and have him pick his man as a HC. Full reset/rebuild time in Philly.
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This situation with the Eagles is just the tip of the iceberg for tanking in football. Like I mentioned previously, the Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Jaguars, etc have all been blamed to be tanking for a better draft slot.
"Tanking" is all the rage the last few years because FANS (not teams) have realized how much fun and hype the NFL Draft can be. Pre-Covid, the NFL would have the Draft moved to a different city each year. They have held massive crowds in Nashville, Philly and Dallas and I would've been in attendance in Vegas in 2020. Even without the in-person activity, the 3-day event is a ton of fun because the best college football players bring a sense of hope for their team in the new season.
However, I emphasized the word fans in the first sentence of the previous paragraph because this is a new fad for them. But the smartest teams have realized building through the draft is the way to create the best teams for 40+ years now. So when a fan realizes that their team probably isn't that good, they all of the sudden start cheering for them to lose.
I was this fan. In the 2019 season, I experienced a true self-destruct and rebuild with the Dolphins. As said fan, I wanted the first pick so we had no chance of someone stealing Tua Tagovailoa from us. And we got Tua, but that isn't the point. Because of this experience, I have a really good understanding of why "tanking" is not worthwhile.
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I know I said I was going to write a short intro, but I feel like that last sentence just also wrapped up my intro... yeesh. Why am I typing this out? This paragraph would be deleted if I was a halfway decent writer. Time to take a break.
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Alright back on track. The 2019 Miami season was intolerable (at the time). We start off at 0-7. "Wooh!!! We are doing it!". And then we beat the Jets. "OK, that's fine whatever I didn't want to go winless anyway. And it's the Jets, I hate them. If we just lose out now, we will have the top pick plus 2 other 1st rounders! Ohhh baby, I can smell the roses."
*1-7 Dolphins beat the 5-3 Colts the very next week*
We ended up with 5 wins by the end of the season and I was as done with being a Dolphins fan as that one girl on every season of the Bachelor that is crying (I kinda like the show I don't know why I'm bashing it. Actually, I find it comedic I guess. Anyways, football.). I couldn't believe our coach would actually TRY TO WIN. I'm saying to myself "The entire season the goal was to lose. It's so easy to lose! It's hard to win!" But fans can only guess what goes on inside a locker room or inside a players mind.
Hindsight would show us that Coach Flores knew he had job security, but more importantly, he wanted to establish a winning culture. Losing is never OK. His mindset allowed the Dolphins to sign guys like Byron Jones (for less money than what Vegas offered him) and Kyle Van Noy in Free Agency. They wanted to be coached by a man that hated losing more than anything and would get the most out of his guys.
Now let's go full circle with the Eagles debacle. Imagine being a player on a team, but the coach/team was actually TRYING TO LOSE. Imagine the friction it would cause inside a locker room. "Why do I want to play my hardest for you every day if you don't want me to succeed every day?" Imagine trying to convince a possible future player on the culture of your team, but when push came to shove you cared more about 3 draft slots.
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Little Timmy reading this article: "OK fine you've made all these great points... but this Trevor Lawrence guy is supposed to be really good. He is going to be a star for 15+ years and win Super Bowls! Wouldn't it make sense to tank your season for a player like that?"
It's true Trevor Lawrence looks like he is going to be really good. He has all the qualities you want in a QB and has won at the highest stage. However, the NFL Draft is never a sure thing. The best QB prospect we have had in the last 10 years was Andrew Luck. He was AMAZING... when he played. He missed 25 out of a possible 101 regular-season games. He retired at the age of 29 because he wanted to be able to live a life after football.
In 2019, the Dolphins were "Tanking for Tua". Meanwhile, Joe Burrow lit the world on fire and became a Heisman winner, National Champion, and #1 overall pick, and looked good in his 1st year with an abominable OL. Tua? Had major hip surgery due to an injury suffered last year, didn't start until Week 8, missed Week 12 due to injury, and has struggled somewhat in the NFL. A long way of saying, tanking is no sure thing even if you lose all the games.
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One thing I hope all bad teams fans think about when you want them to tank. When you lose because you have no intention of winning, you sacrifice core values to sports like integrity, sportsmanship, fun, etc. When the players and coaches cant trust management to put the team in a winning situation, it makes it harder for the organization to work toward a common goal. And if they don't achieve their common goal, GMs and coaches get fired and players get cut or traded. You know what you see in good (winning) organizations? Continuity. Trust. Teamwork.
Trust me when I say this. You don't want your team to handcuff itself and try to lose on purpose. Winning at all costs is the only goal. If you aren't winning, you are like this tank here. Don't be like this tank here.
Last but easily the most important thing about tanking in the NFL. It doesn't exist in large quantities. You may see a team do what the Eagles did once every few years. But on a large scale, everyone in the NFL wants to win more than anything. They all made it to the NFL because they have that desire that trumps everything else in their life. However, if the NFL suspects some continued shadiness going on more often... I wouldn't be surprised to see a change to how the Draft Order is decided.
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If you like my dank memes, let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.
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