Fantasy Segment: Championship Players And How To Find Them

Today we are going to discuss how to build a fantasy championship roster. We are going to take a look at 2020 League Winners and How to Find Them. I am the last person that should be writing this article because I haven't won a league in over 13 years now, and yes I am going to bring that up pretty much every Wednesday article. But you know what I blame my lack of success on? I don't know I just suck at fantasy tbh. I do all this studying and work in the preseason to have a great draft, scour the waiver wire, look for trades... but in the end, some people are just failures...

So if you want to win your fantasy league in 2021 and beyond stop reading here. If you're all about disappointment, man, have you come to the right place. Let's dive in!

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2020 Championship Players

To be able to talk about how to build a championship roster, we first need to figure out what championship players look like. Here are the 10 players that were on the highest percentage of FINALIST rosters in ESPN leagues (that is teams making it to the championship and a high % of those leagues play to Week 17).

Jeff Wilson, RB SF 24% (throw this out because he had a huge week 16 and was subsequently picked up before week 17 for championship teams only)
Stefon Diggs, WR BUF 24%
Alvin Kamara, RB NO 23%
Logan Thomas, TE WSH 21%
Darren Waller, TE LV 21%
Davante Adams, WR GB 20%
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA 20%
Justin Herbert, QB LAC 18%
Travis Kelce, TE KC 17%
Alexander Mattison, RB MIN 17% (throw this out because Cook didn't play Week 16 so Mattison was probably picked up by championship teams in the final week)
Derrick Henry, RB TEN 17%
Josh Allen, QB BUF 17%

Just quickly taking a look at these names, the first thing that jumps out at me is there are only FOUR 1st and 2nd round players on this list. That seems like a really small representation for what is supposed to be the best stat producers in the league. But if we take a look at 2019's Championship players there are even less. 1 in the top 10, 3 in the top 20.

What gives? Isn't the Draft supposed to be the most important fantasy date on the calendar? I am still inclined to think so. But these numbers show me that while the first 2 rounds are important, your league winners are going to be value players. Some will be mid-round guys like Waller or Diggs. Others will be street FAs like Gaskin or Herbert. And some will be FAs that aren't good for but a few games at the end of the season. If your 1st round pick was Barkley and your 2nd round pick was Kenny Golladay, you could have easily replaced them with year-long superstars James Robinson and Justin Jefferson from the waiver wire. Now I say that, but in reality, you either would have needed to completely blow your FAAB on these players or be in last place thus having the highest claim. The point is that it is possible to rebound from a poor/unlucky draft into a championship team. The best fantasy managers can do this.

"But Commish, James Robinson and Justin Jefferson aren't on the championship players list!!!" Very true, but another important list is the players most commonly seen on playoff team rosters. #1 on that list? James Robinson at 67%. Justin Jefferson came in at 14th on the list at 54%. Other undrafted players that made the top 15 included Chase Claypool, Mike Davis, and formerly mentioned Herbert and Gaskin. Thus showing the importance of the waiver wire when building your championship teams.

Another interesting thing to note on the list of players most commonly on playoff teams is that you see a few more early-round draft picks. Kamara, Kelce, Adams, Cook, and Hill all are in the top 10. This tells me a few things as to why they made this list and not the championship players list. Cook and Hill either had a dud, got injured in Weeks 14-15, or their league managers did not find other players that peaked during these weeks (Gaskin, Jefferson, etc). Cook and Hill's lowest outings were 18 and 14 in weeks 14-15. respectively in .5 PPR. That isn't low enough to get you a loss. But if you went up against a Diggs, Waller, Gaskin combo... ouchie.

The point I am trying to make here is even difficult for me. But, being flexible in the playoffs with your roster is essential. In other words, Cook and Hill were stud players all season long. To bench them would take a real set of cajones. But Cook had TB, CHI, and NO in the playoffs, which was an incredibly tough stretch. If you had the foresight to trade Cook to the Derrick Henry owner, you probably won your league. And by no means am I telling you that you lost your championship because you started Tyreek Hill and Dalvin Cook in the same league. All I am telling you is that I lost in the first round of the playoffs with Hill and Cook in the same league.

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How to Find Them

Alright, so we have mentioned the players that were most likely to win you a championship in 2020. We also mentioned that some were high draft picks and some were not drafted entirely. But how do we find these players in the draft or on the waiver wire when there is so much fodder? What distinguishes these players? For this, I am also going to take a look at the 2019 most common Championship players list and 2019 most common playoffs players list. Here are some things to keep an eye out for.

Injuries always happen in football. The ones we need to pay attention to are happening late in the season to high volume players.

In 2019, all of the Bucs starting WRs got hurt. Breshad Perriman rose to the occasion and scored 67.7 points from Weeks 15-17. The Bucs were 6th in the NFL in completions in 2019. With Jameis unable to spread the ball around due to lack of playmakers, Breshad was in a great position to succeed.
In 2020, the 49ers starting RBs were constantly injured. In Week 15, Mostert was placed on IR and Tevin Coleman had been marginalized in the offense. Jeff Wilson exploded in Weeks 16-17, scoring 49.2 points. The 49ers RB room averaged 30 touches per game in 2020, which was top 10 in the NFL. With Jeff Wilson being the workhorse those 2 weeks, he was a Moststart. HA! Fun with spelling!
2 years in a row, Dalvin Cook has missed a game at the end of the regular season. Last year due to injury and this year his father died. Both years in Week 17, the replacement back (Mattison in 2020, Boone in 2019) had a great game. The Vikings were 5th in 2019 and 8th in 2020 in rushing attempts per game.

RBs that are highly involved as pass catchers for teams that have trouble throwing downfield consistently. This one is a bit specific but think about it like this. The Saints the last few years have thrown to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara as their top 2 targets. Most of their routes are not very far downfield. The Panthers, in 2019 specifically, also had a similar issue with Kyle Allen at QB. DJ Moore had a good year, but they were throwing check downs to CMC 10 times a game. Another good example that happened in 2020, the Washington Football Team. They had a constant QB rotation and that led to a lot of shorter routes and check downs to RBs. Gibson and McKissic both came on strong towards the end of the year.

Gibson was injured during the fantasy playoffs. But in Weeks 10-12 (prior to his injury), he scored 71.5 points. During the 4 game span in which Gibson missed time or was limited, McKissic scored 62.8 points, most of which came as a pass-catcher. 29 catches for 221 yards and 2 TDs which is 48.6 points.
Kamara and CMC are obviously drafted early because of their ability to be a great runner and pass catcher. For that reason, it is should be of no surprise that both of them were highly involved in championship runs for their league managers in the last two years.

In both 2019 and 2020, there was a QB-WR pair that took the fantasy playoffs by storm. Both of these teams' pairs were the hottest NFL teams going into the fantasy playoffs, and eventually into the real playoffs. Also for both pairs, this was the first season for the QB to throw to that WR. And lastly, both these teams met the Chiefs in the AFC Champ game. None of that is analysis though. These pairs were hard to compare so I just wrote things they had in common... sue me!

The 2019 team was the Titans with Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown.
The 2020 team was the Bills with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.
The few comparisons I could connect is that both of these QBs are passers first but aren't afraid to tuck and run it, especially near the goal line. Both averaged 4 yards per rush and had multiple goal-line rushes. Additionally, both of these passers had a 70% completion percentage. Beyond that, these offenses and QBs couldn't be more polar opposites.
As far as the WR comparisons, again they win very differently. Stefon Diggs was the NFL leader in receptions and yards in 2020. AJ Brown had a crazy year where he averaged 20 yards per catch. To compare that, 6 players in the history of the NFL have a 20+ yard average per catch in their careers. 230 players in the history of the NFL have a single season with that stat line. It was historic, especially for a rookie. However, both WRs had 8 touchdowns and both were considered the go-to WR when their team needed a play. That last bit can't be understated.

Tight ends coming out of nowhere. Darren Waller has been a revelation since he was uncovered by the Raiders in 2019. Part of the reason Waller has been so good? The Raiders have targeted their WRs on less than 50% of their targets each of the last 2 years. They were the only team to do so in 2020 and one of 4 teams in 2019. Their TEs had a 33% target share both years, ranking 1st in 2020 and 3rd in 2019. Both years Waller has made the top 10 list of championship players (excluding defenses/kickers). Let's see if other TEs fit the same bill or if Waller is an outlier.

Tyler Higbee in 2019: The Rams had a respectable share of their targets going to WRs. However, they were a league-low 10% to RBs. 25% for their TE's still landed within the top ten amongst the NFL. Higbee was definitely a league winner in 2019, but his statistics took such a massive jump in the final 5 weeks of the season because Higbee needed to lineup as a pass catcher rather than a blocker. Additionally, they played the 3 worst teams against TEs to close out the season.
Logan Thomas in 2020: WSH had a 51% target share to their WRs, but only a 20% share for their TEs because their RBs were a big part of their offense. However, both Thomas in 2020 and Waller in 2019 had over 110 targets! While Thomas didn't convert those targets into as many catches, he did make up for it with a few more touchdowns. Thomas could be a potential breakout next year but the QB decision will be important for him.
While Higbee, Waller, and Thomas were undrafted in their respective "breakout" years, the TE position should be one approached with caution. If you don't have a top 5 TE, you are playing with fire. I am going to be selecting TEs early in 2021.

Mobile QB = Fantasy Playoffs. I have been a proponent in recent years to wait at QB. Picking up a guy in the 11th round when there is value makes sense because the WRs in the middle rounds have so much value. In fact, that's where you drafted Metcalf and Diggs this year! But at this point, it is mobile QB or bust in the NFL and in fantasy. Sure you can have your statistical anomaly seasons like what Matt Ryan and Ben did in 2018 where they just threw for so many yards it made up for the lack of running. But it is so much harder to win in a lose-and-go-home playoff game if you can't rely on your QB to create plays with his legs.

The top 3 QBs in playoff ownership % in 2019 and 2020 were all mobile.

2019: Lamar, Russell, Deshaun
2020: Herbert, Kyler, Allen

Gone are the days of Ryan, Stafford, Brady as top QB picks. In fact, the top 6 drafted QBs in 2020 were Mahomes, Lamar, Dak, Watson, Kyler, and Russ. All of them were top 6 besides Dak (injury) and Lamar who was 8th.
It is worth it to invest in a mobile QB. If there is a QB late in the draft or on the waiver wire like a Herbert or Daniel Jones type they may be worth a look. But beyond them, we are looking at a new age for QBs.

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League Winners in 2021

So now that we know How to Find Them, who do I think could be a League Winner in the 2021 season?

In the last section, I talked about injured players and because I can't tell the future, I will skip that portion. But beyond that, I mentioned something for RBs, QB-WR duos, a high-volume TE, and mobile QBs. I am going to pick one player from each category that could crown you next season.

RB: Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers. We didn't quite to get to see the Chargers at full force in 2020. But now we know Herbert can sling it. We also know that in 8 games with Herbert and Ekeler on the field together (not counting the game when he got hurt in the 1st qtr), he had 63 targets, almost 8 a game. He also had 94 carries for 434 yards. 4.6 yards per carry. That is good. My only concern is that he had a total of 3 touchdowns this year. If this number increases, he has all the other ingredients for our successful recipe (outside of the Chargers preference for the long passing game).

WR: Michael Pittman, Indianapolis & Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh. I decided that I needed to exclude the QB-WR Duo and just make it a WR section. There are so many unknowns about QBs this offseason and a bunch of quality WRs entering FA and the draft to be able to predict a duo. Both players may be losing their veteran QBs and both the Colts and Steelers will probably not resign their veteran WR (TY Hilton and Juju). Pittman should have the #1 job unless they go and sign a high-priced FA WR (which is definitely possible, they have the cap space and the need). Claypool won't be the #1 WR in terms of targets with Diontae Johnson sticking around, but the Steelers will likely be a passing team first again in 2021, so there should be enough targets to go around. Both players are incredibly dangerous after the catch and can turn a 6 yard gain into 6 points very quickly.

TE: Austin Hooper, Cleveland & Mike Geisicki, Miami. I have two names because this position is just so tough to nail down. But both of these players find themselves in similar situations. Going into year 2 with a new QB that throws to TEs at a decent clip (both above 25% in 2020). Who knows what the Dolphins pass catchers room is going to look like in 2021, but assuming Tua is the QB, I don't expect his safety blanket to change from an uber-athletic TE to a rookie WR. For Hooper, he averaged almost 10 yards per catch last year. Also, David Njoku will no longer be on the team next year, so we should see a slight uptick in snaps. The Browns ran 12 personnel (1 back, 2 TEs) 6th most in the NFL in 2020, which was 27% of their snaps. Hooper will be on the field for all of those and most snaps when they run just 1 TE on the field.

QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas. We are looking for a pass first QB who can also run when he needs to, especially on the goal line. That is Dak Prescott to a T. Now, this comes with the obvious caveat that he is healthy in 2021 and has resigned with the Cowboys. Take a look at the numbers below that Dak was putting up in 2020 with Lamb, Cooper, and Gallup (all of whom he will have back with him in 2021). He played against soft defenses for a few of these games, but these numbers are just ludicrous even against bad teams.

Game 1: 266 yards, 1 passing TD, 30 ruyards
Game 2: 450 yards, 1 passing TD, 3 rushing TDs, 18 ruyards
Game 3: 472 yards, 3 passing TD, 3 turnovers, 26 ruyards
Game 4: 502 yards, 4 passing TD, 2 turnovers, 12 ruyards
Game 5 (injury): 166 yards, 1 INT, 7 ruyards

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Best Bets

Alright, let's make some money this week shall we? Championship weekend so only 2 games. I tried looking for prop bets to include for my parlay but couldn't find anything. Doesn't matter I lose those every time. Odds were from Pointsbet at 3:00am Wednesday morning.

(5) Bucs @ (1) Packers -3 O/U 51
(2) Bills @ (1) Chiefs +3 O/U 53

Bucs/Packers OVER 51: I made a bet with a reader last week (PS if anyone wants to make bets let me know, I'm kinda tweaking out on Mario Kart betting right now) about the Packers. He said the Packers are scoring 30 against LAR, no doubt about it. So we did O/U Packers total @ 29.5. Vegas odds had that line somewhere between 25 and 26 points for the Packers total, so he was giving me 3 points. I still lost. Packers have scored more than 30 in all but 4 games this season. I like that trend to continue. Brady should be able to put up at least 21 though.

Chiefs -3: Early lines for this game were around a pick'em because of the Mahomes injury. People still aren't sure about his injury, but Vegas is plugged in more than any sources you see on Twitter. I expect the line moving back in KC's favor means they are hearing he has a decent shot at playing. Truth be told, even without Mahomes, I think KC has a shot to win this game. But I think everyone would feel more confident with 15 behind center.

Parlay of the Week: I am going to try to set rules for myself that I pick a +300 parlay each week there are games.

Chiefs/Bills UNDER 53 +100 AND Chiefs -3 +100
$100 pays $300

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If you are going to steal these players in drafts before me next season, let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter.

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